Breaking Down 2015 Phillies ZiPS Projections

The Phillies pitchers and catchers reported to Clearwater yeterday, which means it is time to speculate how they will perform once they hit the field. Soon enough, position players will report to camp and the on field product will be set. With that said, Dan Szymborski released his annual ZiPS projections for the team, so let’s take a look.

The main story in Philadelphia surrounding the team has been and will continue to be whether or not the Phillies deal Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee or Jonathan Papelbon. For the time being, we will ignore those storylines and take a look at their projected value in 2015.

Before we break look at Dan’s ZiPS projections, I just want to put a reminder out that ZiPS is a computer-based projection, which doesn’t take into account injuries or whether the player actually plays at the major-league level, since that is ultimately a club decision. Guys like J.P Crawford won’t see time in Philadelphia this year, but they still received a projection. Also, the fact that a prospect is projected to hit .246 by ZiPS doesn’t mean that is what he will hit in the future or in the minor leagues this year, so do not overreact (the same thing goes for pitchers).

Trade Assets

Cole Hamels is coming off his fourth top-10 finish in CY Young voting and looks to remain an elite pitcher in 2015. Last year, Hamels dazzled for the Phillies, finishing his campaign with a 2.46 ERA, 3.07 FIP and 3.8-WAR, according to Fangraphs.

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According to ZiPS, Hamels projects to remain an elite arm for the Phillies. Hamels is projected throw 202 innings, while posting a 3.34 ERA and 3.44 FIP. While those numbers take a step back from his 2014 season, they fall in line with Hamels career numbers. In terms of Wins Above Replacement, ZIPS projects Hamels at 3.7-WAR for Philadelphia. The projected 3.7-WAR would lead all Phillies players.

If Hamels lives up to the his projection totals, it will mark the ninth consecutive season in which the left-hander is worth at least 3.5-WAR. Hamels has been the model of consistency while in Philadelphia and ZIPS believes that trend will continue in 2015.

The return of Cliff Lee is going to be a big storyline in 2015. Lee is 36-years old and coming off an elbow injury that caused him to miss the majority of 2014. With that said, Lee’s 13 starts and 81.1 innings were his lowest totals since 2003 with the Indians. If Lee wants to prove his value, he needs to be closer what he was in 2013. That is a perfect, but unlikely scenario.

ZiPS projects Lee at 138.2 innings with a 3.44 ERA and 3.29 FIP. The innings projection appears low, but the ERA and FIP are in line with what Philadelphia needs from Lee. While Lee’s numbers are similar to Hamels, his 2.4-WAR falls short of Hamels. If Lee can manage to stay healthy, there is no reason he couldn’t finish with a WAR higher than 3.5, since he would throw over the projected 138.2 innings. I’m not sure why ZiPS projects Lee to have a low volume of innings (probably injury-related), but his ERA and FIP remain where the Phillies need their 36-year old left-hander to be.

{Read: Cliff Lee Trade Talks Destined to be Tricky}

The last of the big three trade pieces is closer, Jonathan Papelbon. Whenever Papelbon is brought up, there seems to be a clubhouse story surrounding him. Lucky for us, we can ignore those scenarios here and find Papelbons’ value in 2015.

A season ago, Papelbon displayed his ability to be an elite closer while his fastball is declining in terms of velocity. The Phillies closer finished his 2014 campaign with a 2.04 ERA and 2.53 FIP. According to Fangraphs, Papelbon was 1.7-WAR for the Phillies. That isn’t too far off from Braves closer Craig Kimbrel, who is regarded by many as the best closer in baseball. I’m not saying they are comparable going forward, but in terms of last year’s value, Papelbon was very good.

In 2015, ZIPS projects Papelbon to finish with a 3.03 ERA and 3.15 FIP. Those projections are a step back for Papelbon, who is entering his age 34 season. ERA and FIP aren’t the only areas of regression, either. According to ZIPS, Papelbon should be worth 0.7-WAR–which trails only Ken Giles in the Phillies bullpen. Overall, ZiPS projects Papelbon to regress in 2015, but still hold some value in the back-end of Philadelphia’s bullpen.

The Core

As everyone who follows baseball knows, the Phillies held onto their 2008 core entirely too long and they’re locked into contracts that aren’t holding much value. The departure of Jimmy Rollins made it appear as if the Phillies could move other veterans like Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz and Ryan Howard, but that has not been the case. Heading into Spring Training, all three are on the roster, with very different projections for 2015.

Behind the dish remains Carlos Ruiz, who is entering his age 36 season. The Phillies catcher finished last season with a .252/.347/.370 slash line. While the slugging is nothing to be in awe of, Ruiz gets on base at a high rate. On defense, you can expect Ruiz to finish with a plus-value in Defensive Runs Saved. In 2014, Ruiz was 3.2-WAR and looks to continue his success in Philadelphia in his ninth year on the team.

In 2015, ZiPS projects Ruiz to finish with a .262/.337/.375 slash line. Those numbers are pretty close to his 2014 numbers, so the Phillies should be happy with that. According to ZIPS, Ruiz would finish 2.5-WAR, which is a step back, but still holds value. If Ruiz can duplicate his 2014 season, he will be valuable for the Phillies and may end up a trade piece at the deadline.

The Ryan Howard saga is bound to continue in 2015, but the interesting piece of the puzzle remains whether the Phillies will hold onto their 35-year old first-baseman, who is due $25 million this season. Howard has simply not been the same player since he went down with an Achilles injury to end the NLDS against the St. Louis Cardinals. Last year, Howard finished with a dimal .223/.310/.380 slash line. In terms of WAR, Howard finished with a negative value for second time in three years at -0.3-WAR. If Ryan Howard wants to remain on the roster, he is going to need to perform much better than his 2014 campaign.

According to ZiPS, Howard is projected to hit .234/.310/.415 slash line. The power bounce-back is a good sign for Howard, but it is also coming in fewer plate appearances, which may suggest more of a platoon role. While Howard is projected to bounce back in terms of power, ZIPS still believes Howard is a -o.1-WAR player in 2015. That is fair because Howard’s .725 OPS won’t be great compared to his fellow first-baseman. Couple that with his lackluster defense (-10 defensive runs saved in 2014), and it becomes clear that Howard still doesn’t have much overall value.

The last piece of the core is second-baseman, Chase Utley. During his tenure, Utley has been the model of consistency for Philadelphia. After battling knee injuries in consecutive years, Utley changed his workout routine during the offseason. Since then, Utley has returned to form and found his way into his sixth All-Star game. In 2014, Utley posted a slash line of .270/.339/.407. While his slash line is not bad, Utley had a terrible second half, slashing just .235/.323/.350. Last year, Utley was 4.1-WAR, according to Fangraphs. This was Utley’s highest WAR total since 2010. In the field Utley remains consistent as he only has one season with a negative defensive runs saved value. If Utley can remain consistent this year, he may find his way into another All-Star game and become a trade piece.

According to ZIPS, Utley is projected to finish at .259/.329/.415 in 2015–very similar numbers to where he finished his 2014 season. While the offensive numbers appear similar, ZiPS projects Utley to finish 2.5-WAR. On defense, ZiPS still projects Utley to be a positive defender, which adds value. In the end, Philadelphia should expect Chase Utley to be the best position player on the field, but don’t put too much hope into Utley being a trade piece with his 10-and-5 rights.

Surprises

Each year there seems to be players who regress and impress. There were three specific Phillie projections that jumped off the page when looking through ZiPS. Now remember, ZiPS is a computer-based projection system, so it isn’t perfect. Some players received projections and won’t see time at major-league level this season. But Zips did allow for some surprise projections.

Andrew Oliver is a former second-round pick by the Detroit Tigers. Last season, Oliver was in the Pittsburgh Pirates system pitching in Triple-A Indianapolis. The Philadelphia Phillies selected Oliver in the Rule-5 draft this past offseason. Despite not pitching in the majors since 2011, ZIPS projects Oliver favorably.

In 2015, Oliver is projected to throw 63 innings with a 3.57 ERA and 3.85 FIP. To go along with those numbers, Oliver is projected to be one of three Phillies relievers finished with a strikeout per nine rate higher than ten (Giles and Jake Diekman are the other two). While Oliver projects to strikeout a lot of hitters and be a good bullpen piece, ZIPS projects walks to be an issue, which is consistent with Oliver’s minor-league career.

Domonic Brown is coming off a disappointing season filled with questions about whether or not his 2013 All-Star season was a fluke. Last year, Brown finished with a disappointing .235/.285/.349 slash line. That was a significant drop-off from his .818 OPS in 2013. Defensively, Brown remains a liability in the outfield, where he finished -8 defensive runs saved (DRS). This is a trend for Brown as he has finished with at least a -6 DRS each of the last four seasons.

According to ZiPS, Brown is projected to rebound with a .256/.311/.434 slash line. That is a huge rebound for Brown, who is playing for a full-time spot in Philadelphia. The slash line rebounds toward what it was at in 2013, when Brown hit 27 home runs. ZIPS projects Brown to 18 home runs and 24 doubles in 515 plate appearances.As I previously stated, I believe that this ZiPS projection is close to what Brown will be in the future. Last year, his line drive rate fell which hurt his BABIP.

Defensively, ZiPS believes that Brown will be a negative-value defender again in 2015. At this point, Brown’s defense is what it is and it isn’t likely to improve. Due to his poor defense, Brown projects to be 0.8-WAR in 2015, but projects to rebound on the offensive side of the ball.

The last and most shocking of the projections is Maikel Franco. Before I get into Franco’s projection, remember that ZiPS does not account for Franco starting in the minor-leagues or how much time he will get when he is up. This projection appears that Franco would play the entire season with Philadelphia.

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Maikel Franco is rated in the top-100 prospects for Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus coming into the 2015 season. ZiPS projections back up the top-100 rankings, too. According to ZiPS, Franco is projected to post a slash line of .259/.289/.446 . This slash line makes a lot of sense because it shows both Franco’s greatest strength and weakness.

At the plate, Maikel Franco has a lot of raw power, but terrible plate discipline. ESPN Insider, Keith Law has talked about holes in the swing of Franco, along with pitch recognition issues. ZiPS highlights that in the projection with a low OBP, but high slugging percentage. In 634 plate appearances, ZiPS projects Franco to hit 23 home runs and 34 doubles while driving in 95 runs. Honestly, my jaw dropped when I saw the projection, but his power numbers make sense. Defensively, Franco is projected to be a negative defender, but it appears that he would be at third base. If Philadelphia parts ways with Ryan Howard, Franco may slide over to first base, but I would imagine he gets a shot at third base before that happens. Despite his projected negative defensive value, ZIPS still projects Franco at 1.8-WAR, which Philadelphia would take from their 22-year old prospect.

If these three players can all post similar numbers to their projections, Philadelphia would be estatic. Maikel Franco would be the most satisfying of the three since he projects to be an important piece to their future. A rebound for Domonic Brown would be important as the Phillies lack outfield depth and Brown is under club control through 2017, so it will give the Phillies time to see where he truly projects. If Andrew Oliver can come out of the bullpen along with Diekman and Giles to strikeout a lot of batters, that will be important for Philadelphia going forward. The bullpen has been an issue for Philadelphia in the past, so to see a new pitcher project like this is a surpise and adds some hope for Oliver’s future.

The prospects

While one of the Phillies top prospects (Franco) falls under the surprises, the others are more than likely to start their seasons in the minor-leagues. However, as I stated above, ZiPS doesn’t project where the player is going to start since that is ultimately a club decision made down the line. Below, we will review some of the Phillies top-10 prospects who received major-league projections in 2015.

The chart below will cover the following top-10 prospects (Numbers are projected at M.L level): J.P Crawford, Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin, Tom Windle, Ben Lively, Roman Quinn. Also, this chart will include Jesse Biddle, who fell out of the Phillies top-10 this past season.

Pitching Prospect Projections

Player	IP	ERA	FIP	zWAR
Jesse Biddle	107.0	5.30	5.51	-0.7
Zach Eflin	121.1	4.90	4.88	-0.2
Ben Lively	112.1	4.17	4.28	0.9
Aaron Nola	106.1	4.91	4.69	-0.2
Tom Windle	120.0	4.95	4.96	-0.3

The chart above is strictly the Phillies pitching prospects projections. Now, take this as just a projection, as only Nola may see major-league time this season. All of the guys on this list are young, so there is no reason to panic, but the projections aren’t overwhelming to say the least. It is surprising to see Ben Lively, who was acquired for Marlon Byrd, atop the list in ERA, FIP and WAR. Again, no reason to panic, but here is the top pitching prospect projections from ZiPS.

Hitting Prospect Projections:

Player	PA	Batting Avg	OBP	Slug %	OPS	WAR
J.P Crawford	537	0.248	0.312	0.363	0.675	1.4
Maikel Franco	634	0.259	0.289	0.446	0.735	1.8
Roman Quinn	396	0.224	0.286	0.336	0.622	-0.3

The Phillies top hitting prospects are not overwhelming, but only Franco should see major-league time this season. J.P Crawford is the shortstop of the future, but is not ready for the show just yet. This year, Crawford should see time in Double-A, which will give Philadelphia more insight to whether his bat can play at the next level or not. So far, it looks like it can, but only time will tell. Roman Quinn is going through a position dilemma with Crawford being the next in line at shortstop. Quinn has worked in center field and could be a utility infielder, too. As I stated above, Maikel Franco’s projection is great for the Phillies, but he may start the year in the minors to work on other parts of his game.

2015 Philadelphia Phillies Projections

Overall, I would only take really deep look at guys who project to play in Philadelphia this season. The ZiPS projections for Hamels and Lee are encouraging for their future value and playing as an asset come the trade deadline, or even during Spring Training. Jonathan Papelbon may regress, but if the Phillies take on some of his contract, ZiPS projects him favorably enough for him to still be a trade piece.

While there are surprises like Brown, Oliver and Franco, ZiPS still believes that Ryan Howard is of no value for the 2015 Philadelphia Phillies. Howard is one of the three core position players still in Philadelphia, but the only negative projection as Utley and Ruiz each project 2.5-WAR.

The 2015 Philadelphia Phillies won’t be a very good team, and they very well could lose 100 games, but they still have players with some value. While their prospect projections aren’t overly impressive, those guys are still years away from being ready outside of Franco and Nola. Even then, both Franco and Nola will be very young when they reach the major leagues and will need work before they reach their peak years.

If you follow the Phillies, try and remain optimistic as this team is in a bad spot, but has done some work to try and build a core rotation in Double-A Reading. If Hamels and Lee can live up to their ZIPS projections, they can present value for another team, which could help rebuild this farm system.

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Making Sense of the 2015 Philadelphia Phillies ZiPS Projections

By Jason Ferrie | Feb 19, 2015

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