What Should the Phillies Expect From Maikel Franco?

The Phillies are coming into 2015 with a rebuilding vision in mind. However, they need to decide what they are going to do with one of their top prospects. While third-baseman Maikel Franco struggled in his brief stint last season, he has played very well in the Liga de Beisbol Dominicano this winter.

In 38 regular season games, Franco posted an .805 OPS, while finishing second in the league in home runs. Since then, Franco’s team has advanced to the playoffs where he has a .945 OPS in 13 games. Small sample size, yes, but if Franco can continue this play into Spring Training, then the Phillies will have a decision to make.

Currently, the Phillies have Cody Asche slotted in at third-base, who finished 2014 with a .699 OPS—which is below league average. The Phillies don’t appear to be committed to Asche at the hot corner, which raises the question to whether or not Maikel Franco could be in the opening day lineup. Franco is an interesting prospect because of his raw abilities and power bat. Heading into the 2015 campaign, Baseball America ranks Franco as the Phillies third-best prospect. While Franco has a high rank and upside, he may not be major-league ready.

Prospect Ranking

Prior to the 2014 season, Franco ranked as the number one prospect in the Phillies system, but since then, he has given way to Aaron Nola and J.P Crawford. Nonetheless, Franco is still a top prospect in the Phillies system and they believe he will be a big part of their future success. This year, Franco will begin his age 22 season. But should it be for the Phillies or a minor-league affiliate?

Maikel Franco’s 2014 season begin in Lehigh Valley, which is the Phillies Triple-A affiliate. Franco played 133 games for the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs, finishing with a .299/.428/.727 slash line. Franco struggled early in the season, posting a sub .500 OPS in two of his first three months. However, Franco was able to rebound toward the end of the year posting an OPS greater than .880 in July and August. The hot streak earned Franco his first shot with the Phillies. Unfortunately, Franco did not produce for the Phillies, but then again, who did. In his 16 games with the Phillies, Franco hit a measly .179 with a .190/.214/.404 slash line. Franco’s 16 game sample size is extremely small, and it should not hold any weight going into 2015. As a prospect, Franco has a lot of upside, but he has some extreme deficiencies as well. Let’s take a look at Maikel Franco now and what to expect moving into 2015.

Deficiencies

Let’s talk about Maikel Franco and his current deficiencies. First, you will see in the slash lines above that Franco posted a low On-Base Percentage in both Triple-A and the majors. At the plate, Franco is extremely aggressive. The 22 year-old’s plate approach is aggressive because of his tendency to guess pitches. Guessing pitches can work in certain counts, but guessing every pitch can lead to some issues, such as Franco’s inability to hit off-speed pitches.

On top of that, guessing pitches does not allow for a fluent swing. While his hands are quick, Franco’s guessing gets him caught either in-between his swing or out on his front foot. Franco’s plate discipline will remain a concern heading into the 2015 season.

Defensively, Franco is no sure thing. At third base, Franco does not have great instincts. ESPN’s Keith Law stated that Franco may need to move to first because he is “a below-average runner with thick lower legs whose first step was too slow for the position, although he has a 70 or so arm.”

Basically, while Franco has an elite arm at the position, his inability to get to the ball is going to force the Phillies to move Franco to first, succeeding Ryan Howard.

Upside

The upside of Maikel Franco is something Phillies fans and personnel should be excited about. At the plate, Franco displays the ability to drive the ball. On the 20-80 scouting scale, Franco ranks as a 70 in terms of power. However, the overall bat is very raw for Franco.As stated above, Franco guesses—but when he guesses right, watch out.

On top of his power, Franco has displayed very quick hands. Franco allows his hands to get very deep in the hitting zone, which helps him generate power, but his quick hands make up for some of his guessing issues. If Franco can correct some of his guessing issues, his hit tool may further develop and increase his production.

The defensive positive to Franco, as stated above by Keith Law, is that Franco has a plus arm. Law rated Franco’s arm in the 70-range, but noted that a position change is more than likely from the young third-baseman.

Overall Prospect Rankings on 20-80 Scale, According to MLB.com (20 is low and 80 is high).

Hit: 60

Power: 70

Arm: 60

Field: 50

Overall: 55

Recommendation for the Phillies

The Phillies have a lot to be excited about with Maikel Franco, but they know he isn’t a sure thing. Franco is 22-years old and has displayed some extremely raw skills. Heading into 2015, the Phillies should look to start Franco is Triple-A. This will give Franco time to develop and even get some repetitions at his more-than-likely home at first base.

The development ofMaikel Franco will be far more than defensively. At the plate, Franco needs to show discipline. Guessing at the next level won’t work. Major league pitchers are far too smart and have all the data they could possibly need about a hitter’s tendencies.

At the next level, Franco should be a 25+ home run player, but that number could increase if Franco shows the ability to walk. Franco has a ton of raw power (70 on 20-80 scale), and if he can develop better pitch recognition, he will put himself in a better position at the plate and force pitchers to attack him differently. If Franco can improve some of his deficiencies, he should be a major league regular, maybe even an All-Star.