In 2021, a loaded NL East is the Philadelphia Phillies biggest problem

Heading into the upcoming 2021 MLB season, there are plenty of questions that still persist when it comes to evaluating the Philadelphia Phillies ability to compete.

Who’s going to play center field? Who’s going to slot in as the team’s #5 starter? Did the bullpen really improve enough? Can guys like Jean Segura and Andrew McCutchen bounce back? Will someone like Zach Eflin take the next step forward this summer?

While all of these questions/concerns are inherently valid, they ultimately don’t matter all that much when it comes to discussing the Phillies playoff odds in 2021. Unlike the NBA, the Phillies odds of cracking the postseason are almost exclusively reliant on how they stack up compared to the rest of their own division. Two Wild Card spots isn’t a whole lot to compete for, especially when one of them is all but locked up for the soon-to-be 90+ win San Diego Padres.

Navigating the NL East will ultimately prove to be the Philadelphia Phillies biggest challenge.

For the Phillies to truly make the postseason in October, they’ll either have to outright win the NL East, or they’ll have to outlast the likes of the New York Mets and Washington Nationals when it comes to that second Wild Card spot. All three of those mentioned teams have made serious upgrades this offseason, and all three are expected to content for a playoff spot this year.

According to FanGraphs.com, the Phillies odds of finishing above any one of those teams aren’t looking all that hot:

13.4% might feel like a disrespectful number at first – especially when you consider the productive offseason the Phillies just had – but when you look around at the caliber of talent in the NL East at the moment, it doesn’t feel all that far fetched.

More from Section 215

• 4 Eagles on the Bubble Who Have Clinched Their 53-Man Roster Spots
• Best Pennsylvania Sportsbook Promos: Win $650 GUARANTEED Bonus PLUS $100 off NFL Sunday Ticket
• 3 Punters the Eagles Must Target to Replace Arryn Siposs
• Cowboys Trey Lance Trade Proves How Screwed They Are With Dak Prescott
• Devon Allen Took Britain Covey’s Job on Eagles

The Braves were obviously just one game away from the World Series last year, and made strides to improve their starting rotation this offseason (Charlie Morton, Drew Smyly). The Mets of course completely overhauled their roster, bringing in the likes of Francisco Lindor, Trevor May, Taijuan Walker, Carlos Carrasco, and Aaron Loup – while simultaneously retaining the services of RHP Marcus Stroman.

Despite their poor 2020, the Nationals went out and added Josh Bell, Jon Lester, Brad Hand, and Kyle Schwarber to a core of players that’s less than two years removed from a World Series.

Even the Marlins, a team with a 0.7% chance to make the postseason (according to FanGraphs), shouldn’t be completely slept on. They’re coming off a playoff series win over the Cubs, and have one of the brightest rotations in all of baseball.

If the Philadelphia Phillies were in a division like the NL Central or the AL West, my guess is that their postseason odds would skyrocket. They have one of the highest payrolls in all of baseball, and they definitely have an above average roster at the moment.

Unfortunately, the Phillies happen to play in a division that, across the board, is hell-bent on winning. Forget the bullpen or the outfield depth for a second, the Phils’ biggest challenge in 2021 will simply be navigating through the hyper-competitive NL East.