Nerlens Noel Making Serious Push For Rookie of the Year

The Sixers are 54 games into the season and the NBA trade deadline is in their rear view mirror. At the deadline, the Sixers decided to trade 2013-2014 Rookie of the Year, Michael Carter-Williams. It was a shock to the majority of Philadelphia’s fan base, but it was not the only scenario where the Sixers could have traded a former top pick.

With a big-man heavy draft and Joel Embiid waiting in the wings, many wondered if the Sixers would consider moving Nerlens Noel. Ultimately, the Sixers decided to hold onto the Kentucky product. In the first game following the All-Star break, Noel finished with 12 points, nine rebounds, four steals and nine blocks. Yes, nine blocks! To put that in historical perspective, only three other players dating back to 1985 finished with the numbers Noel did against the Pacers. With an injured and weak draft class on the court this year, I started to wonder whether Noel could win Rookie of the Year, and found that he has a legitimate case.

Just over five weeks ago, I explored the current and future value of Noel, and to this point, he hasn’t wavered from where I thought he would be. The 6’11 center has played in 52 games for the Sixers this season and has been quite valuable. While the Sixers and fans were concerned with Noel’s knee, he has proven his health this season. As of today, Noel is averaging 8.5 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.6 steals and 1.9 blocks per-game.

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Last month was Noel’s best to date as an NBA player. In 17 games Noel averaged 8.7 points per-game while shooting 46 percent from the field. Not only was Noel shooting the ball better than normal, but he cut down his turnovers–averaging just 1.35 per game. In fact, Noel has cut nearly a turnover per-game out between December and January. During January, Noel had an offensive rating of 98, according to Basketball-Reference. That offensive rating is the best in Noel’s young career.

While Noel was better on offense, he continued to protect the rim at an elite level. In the 17 January games, Noel averaged 2.18 blocks and 1.47 steals per game. While the steals are slightly lower than Noel’s average, 1.5 steals per game is very valuable for a big man. Noel’s 2.18 blocks were a significant improvement from his previous average of 1.37 per game. Of course, that’s simply a one month sample, but it is shows that Noel is progressing.

The real case for Nerlens Noel comes with his cumulative value. Reflecting to last year, Michael Carter-Williams won the Rookie of they Year award, but had just 1.3 Win Shares (WS) and a 1.1 Value of Replacement Player (VORP). This year, Nerlens Noel has 1.8 WS and a 0.7 VORP. It is fair to believe that Noel, if he continues to progress, can come close to Carter-Williams VORP. Ultimately, Noel won’t be challenging MCW for the Rookie of the Year.

Of all NBA rookie’s, Nerlens Noel is one of four to play in at least 30 games and average 25 or more minutes. In that group, Noel leads with 1.6 Win Shares. The closest to Noel is Minnesota’s Andrew Wiggins with 1.2 Win Shares. Of the two, Wiggins has a better Win Share balanced with 1.o on offense and 0.2 on defense.

On the other hand, Noel lacks the balance that Wiggins’ numbers reflect. On offense, Noel has been worth -0.8 Win Shares. The defensive end of the ball is where Noel shines with 2.6 Win Shares. Noel is one of 21 NBA players with at least 2.5 Defensive Win Shares, and he is the only rookie on the list.

In that aforementioned group of the four best statistical rookies, Noel leads with 0.7 VORP. The other three in the group are Elfrid Payton, K.J. McDaniels and Andrew Wiggins. Of those three, Payton is the closest to Noel at 0.2 VORP, followed by Wiggins at -0.1 and K.J McDaniels -0.3.

Player	WS	VORP
Elfrid Payton	1.0	0.2
K.J. McDaniels	0.4	-0.3
Nerlens Noel	1.8	0.7
Andrew Wiggins	1.2	-0.1

Sure, Noel is not very balanced and has his deficiencies, but his WS and VORP would suggest that he is the best rookie in the NBA this season. Not only is Noel at the top of the rookie rankings in terms of WS and VORP, he is in elite company with his defensive abilities.

This season in the NBA, there are only two players averaging at least 1.5 blocks and steals per game. Nerlens Noel is one of those two players. The other player in this group is Anthony Davis, who will collect MVP votes at the end of the season. That isn’t to say Noel is or will be Davis, but it is an example of how elite Noel’s defense has been.

Since 1946-1947, there has been just one rookie who finished the season with 1.5 blocks and steals per game–hall of famer David Robinson. If Noel can keep up his numbers where they currently are for the rest of the season, he will join Robinson in that group.

In the end, I do not know if Nerlens Noel will win the Rookie of the Year, but he certainly has a case. Andrew Wiggins is going to be his biggest threat because of his name value and offensive numbers. Right now, Wiggins is averaging 15.6 points per game, which is almost doubles Noel. If the voters decided to pick Wiggins, it will be because of his name value and balance of both ends of the floor. Nerlens Noel excels on one side of the ball, but he has been so elite on defense that it has made him a statistically more valuable player than Wiggins this season. If the Rookie of the Year voting happened today, I think Andrew Wiggins would win the award, but if the voters look further into it, Nerlens Noel is a legitimate candidate to win the NBA Rookie of the Year award.

Nerlens Noel’s Defensive Dominance Makes Him Rookie of the Year Candidate

By Jason Ferrie | Feb 24, 2015

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