Analyzing Nerlens Noel’s Current and Future Value

The Philadelphia 76ers landed power forward Nerlens Noel at the 2013 NBA Draft in a trade with the New Orleans Pelicans. Noel, who was projected as the number one overall pick coming out of Kentucky, suffered an ACL injury causing him to miss the back-end of his freshman year and ultimately, hurting his draft stock. He would end up going sixth overall to the Pelicans, temporarily uniting him with fellow Kentucky big man Anthony Davis.

Instead, New Orleans and Philadelphia decided to make a deal at the draft, trading Noel and a first-round pick for Jrue Holiday and Pierre Jackson. While Noel did not suit up for the Sixers in 2013-2014, he was ready for the start of the 2014-2015 season. Noel is now 35 games into his rookie season, which means we can start to break down Noel’s value now and in the future.

Reviewing Noel at Kentucky

In his freshman year at Kentucky, Noel averaged 10.5 points per game to go along with 9.5 rebounds.

However, Noel’s true value came on defense. During his one season, Noel had 106 blocks in just 24 games. Let that sink in for a second. That means Noel averaged 4.4 blocks per game. Not only did Noel protect the rim while at Kentucky, but he was a ball hawk, averaging 2.08 steals per game.

Unfortunately, Noel tore his ACL while blocking a shot against Florida, ending his season and ultimately, his college career. Moving into the NBA draft, Noel was the number one prospect based largely on his defensive value. Noel came out of Kentucky at 6’11, weighing 206 lbs. Along with his 6’11 stature, Noel has a reported 7’4 wingspan—which is another attractive feature. While his offensive game was raw, his defensive value made up for his offensive deficiencies.

Welcome to Philadelphia

The Sixers acquired Nerlens Noel from the Pelicans, who was drafted with the sixth pick, for Jrue Holiday and Pierre Jackson. Noel was still recovering from his ACL injury, but the Sixers decided to make the deal knowing he would likely miss the 2013-2014 season.

The 2013-2014 Sixers were not a good team, finishing 19-63—which ultimately earned them another lottery pick. Since the team was not going to contend, the Sixers decided that Noel would not play a single game and would focus on his health.

Defensive Value

When Noel finally debuted earlier this season, the Sixers hoped that his defense would shine through while he continued to develop his offensive game.

Fortunately for the Sixers, Noel has shown that he is a plus defender like they had assessed. Noel is 35 games into his first NBA season—averaging 30.3 minutes per game. This is a positive sign, showing Noel’s knee is healthy. Statistically, Noel is showing up on the defensive end, averaging 1.5 blocks and steals per game. To this point, Noel has added 1.5 Defensive Win Shares (DWS) along with 3.1 Defensive Box Plus/Minus (DBPM). The Defensive Box Plus/Minus statistic is the estimate of the defensive points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player, translated to an average team—according to Basketball-Reference.

Offensive Value

While Noel has been a plus-value defensive player, his offensive game is still a work-in-progress.

This year, Noel is shooting 42.5% from the field and an atrocious 49.4% from the free throw line. In terms of shot selection, Noel’s range is limited and he knows that. As of today, 77.1% of Noel’s field goal attempts are coming from 10 feet or less, with the average shot coming from 5.9 feet. Is that a bad thing? No, it isn’t. The closer Noel gets to the rim, the higher percentage the shot. However, it would be nice to see Noel extend his range a little. On shots between ten and sixteen feet, Noel is shooting just 27%, which is nothing special.

Obviously, we can see from the lack of range, combined with his low field goal and free throw percentages that Noel isn’t a polished offensive player at this point. In terms of Offensive Win Shares (OWS), Noel is -1.3 OWS. Similar to DBPM, Offensive Box Plus/Minus is an advanced metric to determine Noel’s current value. Right now, Noel’s OBPM is -5.8, which means he is negative value offense player for an average team.

Overall Value

It may not be fair to analyze Noel’s value less than halfway through his rookie season, but we are going to anyways. In terms of Win Shares (WS), Noel is a negative offensive player, while he is a plus-value defensive player. Overall, Noel is 0.1 Win Shares 35 games into his career. The next overall value metric is Value Over Replacement Player (VORP). VORP is a box score estimate of the points per 100 team possessions a player contributed above a replacement player (-2.0 VORP), translated to an average team, according to Basketball-Reference. Noel is -0.4 VORP, which means he is just about an average player right now. That aligns with Noel’s Win Shares. Finally, we will look at Player Efficiency Rating (PER). Player Efficiency Rating is a measure of per-minute production standardization such that the league average is 15, according to Basketball-Reference. Noel currently has a 10.4 PER, according to Basketball-Reference. This means that Noel is a below-average player according to league wide standard. While two of the three metrics (WS and VORP) say Nerlens Noel is a league-average player and the other (PER) says he is slightly below, I won’t put too much weight on these metrics yet. Noel is young and his skill set is very raw, but it does allow us to see where he is production wise relative to his peers.

What to Expect Going Forward

There is no doubt that the Sixers should expect Nerlens Noel to grow as an overall player. While he is currently a good defender, he can be great. Noel has natural instincts on the court and it has shown at each level and early in his NBA career. As he grows as an NBA player, he will be more comfortable on the court, which should help his defense. He is also facing the best competition he has ever faced, too. That will take some adjusting as well. Regardless, Noel’s long wing span, coupled with the fact that he has a high defensive IQ, will allow him to be a plus-value defender for the duration of his career.

Offensively, Noel is a very raw talent. His offensive game isn’t NBA ready, but he will continue to grow with comfort. Will Noel be a 20 PPG player? I guess there is a chance if you are wildly optimistic, but I would say no. What Noel can be however, is a player that excels within ten feet and shoots 35% from ten to fourteen feet out. I’m not asking Noel to become a jump shooter because that isn’t realistic, but he is athletic enough to show an outside game. Noel is only 20-years old so he has time to develop his offensive game, but it is going to take a good bit of work.

Overall, the Sixers should expect Nerlens Noel to become a double-double player. He is currently averaging 7.8 points per game and 7.1 rebounds. Noel should be able to grow enough offensively to average ten points per game. On the glass, Noel should improve as well. His 7’4 wing span will give him length, but he needs to put on size. Noel is a slender 228 lbs. down low, so he will need to put on some muscle to box out some of the bigger guys in the league. On top of projecting Noel as a double-double guy, he should be a defense force. Currently, he is playing center, but if Joel Embiid returns—Noel will switch to Power Forward. If he moves to Power Forward, I don’t think that it is crazy to think he can be the second best defender at the position, behind fellow Kentucky Wildcat, Anthony Davis.

If Noel can become a double-double player while maintaining his defensive numbers in terms of blocks and steals, he will be a valuable asset. In the shot clock era, there have been just 35 seasons (mostly by Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson) where a player has averaged a double-double while posting 1.5 blocks and steals per game. If Noel were to add 3 PPG and 3 rebounds, he could join that group. I’m not saying he is going to be elite, but there are elite names on that list. His offensive game may not be brilliant, but appreciate Noel because he may have a very bright future for the Sixers.