Phillies Outfield Production Projects Poorly in 2015

The Phillies are seventeen days away from pitchers and catchers heading to Clearwater. Earlier this offseason, I previewed the infield, starting rotation and bullpen for the Phillies, both in the present and what we could see prior to Opening Day. The final preview will be for the outfield.

The Phillies are rebuilding and part of that process entails trading assets for future value. The Phillies current win trajectory would suggest that they would miss the playoffs with or without Marlon Byrd. Since that is the case, the Phillies traded Marlon Byrd to the Cincinnati Reds. The departure of Byrd has left even more questions about the Phillies outfield and what Ryne Sandberg should do in the upcoming season.

I am honestly not sure where to start with this group of outfielders. While working through the possibilities of who would play where, I found myself questioning whether or not this was a major league outfield. Either way, we will start with Ben Revere, who will be patroling center field for the Phillies.

Ben Revere

In 2014, Revere impressed with his bat, finishing with a .306 batting average and ending the season in a tie with Denard Span for the league lead in hits with 184.

On the basepath, Revere was as valuable as any player in baseball. In 57 stolen base attempts, Revere was caught stealing just eight times. In stolen bases, Revere finished third in the National League in overall stolen bases and fourth in stolen base percentage. As stated in a previous article, Revere is an elite runner and it goes further than base stealing. In 2014, Revere’s speed helped him take an extra 31 bases for the Phillies. Even more impressive than the extra bases that he took is the fact that Revere was not thrown out trying to take an extra base in 2014. Ben Revere’s elite speed helped him become a valuable offensive player.

While Revere was excellent of the base paths and hit for a high average, his defense is a huge concern. To this point in his career, Revere has been a below average defender. In his third full season, Revere had his worst defensive season at 18 defensive runs below replacement. This is a combination of poor routes, bad reads off the bat and an even worse arm. As fast as Ben Revere is, his speed doesn’t cover up his dismal defensive numbers.

Revere’s defense is not his only concern heading into 2015. As a leadoff man, Revere needs to get on base. While Revere hit .306, he reached base at just a .325 clip. In his two years prior to 2014, Revere had walk-rates of 5.2 and 4.8 percent, respectfully. His 2.1% walk-rate in 2014 is concerning because of the fact that speed is his game. The higher the on-base percentage, the more opportunities Revere has to utilize his speed. To put this into some historical perspective, Revere is one of 10 players in MLB history to qualify for the batting title, hit over .300 and post an on-base pecentage equal to or lower than .325. If I move the minimum batting average to .305, Revere is one of two players (only outfielder ever) all-time to qualify for batting title, hit at least .305 with an on-base percentage equal to or lower than .325. Overall, if the Phillies want Revere’s value to increase, they need to encourage him to get on base more. This will require swinging at fewer pitches, and taking more walks in hoping of reaching base more.

According to Fangraphs steamer projection, Revere is projected to hit .283 with a .316/.347/.663 slash line. The projection also has Revere walking and striking out at higher rates. The biggest drop for Revere is in batting average and that is related to a projected .308 batting average on balls in play. In each of the last three years, Revere has had a BABIP over .325, so a .308 BABIP would explain some batting average regression. Steamer also has Revere stealing fewer bases (36), but playing in fewer games (131).

There are no defensive projections from Steamer, but since Revere has regressed each of the past three seasons in defensive runs saved, I would assume he is a negative value defender again, but not as bad as his -18 DRS in 2014. In 2015, look for Ben Revere to draw more walks and take a step forward on defense. If he can’t do so, he won’t be a plus-value player for the Phillies.

Domonic Brown

Now we move onto the corner outfield positions that are far from set. The departure of Marlon Byrd brings back the option of moving Domonic Brown to right field, which is the best option if they do not sign a free-agent.

Coming  into the 2014 season, Domonic Brown was coming off an All-Star year where he hit 27 home runs. Unfortunately for Brown, he did not duplicate his all-star campaign. In 144 games, Brown hit just .235 with a .285/.349/.634 slash line. According to Baseball-Reference, among all outfielders who qualified for the batting title, Brown was the least valuable in baseball at -1.4 Wins Above Replacement.

Offensively, Brown struggled in just about every facet of the game. Over the course of the season, Brown struck out in 17.8% of his plate appearances while walking in just 6.6%. According to PITCHf/x data, Brown often expanded the zone for the opposing pitcher, chasing over 30% of pitches outside the zone. While he made contact over 66% of the time, he still expanded the zone which resulted in outs more times than not. Along with chasing pitches, Brown finished with the lowest line-drive rate of his career at 17.4%. This was down from 22.8% in his 2013 campaign. While the majority of Brown’s numbers dropped, nothing stood out more than his lack of power.

Domonic Brown was coming off a 27 home run season, where he collected a total of 52 extra base hits. This was the type of power scouts saw when they ranked Brown as a top prospect in baseball. He followed with a 10 home run, 33 extra-base hit season, which was far below his pre-season expectations.

In 2014, Domonic Brown struggled with pitches up in the zone that he handled well in 2013. For instance, against pitches up and away in the strikezone, Brown had a .151 ISO (Slugging-Batting Avg) in 2013. In 2014, his ISO power fell to .029 on one fewer pitch in that zone.

While that is a concern, Brown was horrendous when he fell behind in the count. Of all counts when he fell behind, Brown did not hit over .213. That is a huge concern because it showed that once a pitcher gets ahead of Brown, he is basically finished.

While Brown struggled when he fell behind in counts, he did a great job with runners on base. Brown had 137 plate appearances with runners in scoring position in 2014. In those plate appearances, Brown hit .305 and drove in 55 runs. While the value of RBIs is subjective, hitting .305 in those situations is a good sign for Brown.

The other positive is that his strikeout to walk rate is almost 1:1. That is a sign that Brown zones in and tightens his strike zone with runners on base.

While these are good signs, Brown cannot wait for runners to get on base to hit. He must take pride in getting on base all the time.

In 2015, Domonic Brown also needs to take some pride in his defense. In 2014, Brown, like Revere, was a negative value defender. While Brown’s was three runs above replacement, he was still a negative defender in Good Fielding Plays/Defensive Misplays and Plus/Minus, according to Fielding Bible. Brown is limited range wise and it is due to poor jumps off the bat. Brown often gets frozen on line drives, which allows the ball to get deeper in the gap or on top of Brown faster than he thinks (this happens with Revere, too). Here is a chart of Brown’s defensive outs made and plays he did not make in 2014:

As you can see, the majority of Brown’s defensive plays come within a small range. When Brown has to come in, he begins to struggled. In 2014, Dom Brown made just two errors, but that doesn’t count all of the balls he could have got to if he made better reads. Overall, Brown was eight defensive runs saved below replacement, which was one of the worst for his position.

Overall, I do not think Dom Brown is as bad as his 2014 season suggested, and neither does Steamer. According to Steamer, Brown is projected to hit .255 this season with a .315/.424/.739 slash line in 95 games. The 95 games should jump out as it suggests Brown is more of a platoon player at this point, and that makes sense. In 2014, Brown hit just .217 against left-handed pitching, while walking just four times in 106 plate appearances. If Brown is not going to be an everyday major league player and plays sub-par defense, playing him when he hits best (versus right-handed pitching) makes a lot of sense. I am going to buy-in on Steamers projection for Domonic Brown in 2015.

At this point in time, it is fair to assume Revere will play the majority of games in center and Brown, although he will platoon, will see around 100 games in the outfield. The final piece of the puzzle is finding a third outfielder and the Phillies have four options at this time.

Grady Sizemore

The Phillies could start Grady Sizemore in left-field. Sizemore, who signed a one year, $2 million deal this offseason played 60 games for the 2014 Phillies. In 176 plate appearances for the Phillies, Sizemore hit .253 with a .313/.389/.701 slash line. Nothing overwhelming, but certainly better than what the Phillies expected. Sizemore doesn’t have the speed that he had while he was with Cleveland, but he shows flashes of it. Unfortunately for Sizemore, he has not been able to stay on the field because of injuries.

Injuries have hurt Sizemore for a defensive standpoint, too. He has never been an amazing fielder, but his speed no longer makes up for some of his fielding issues. In just 84 games started, Sizemore was -2 defensive runs saved. Sizemore is limited to a corner position due to his lack of range and fits best in left because of his below average arm.

According to Fangraphs, Steamer projects Sizemore to play 117 games, hit .239 with a .302/.372/.674 slash line. I’m going to buy the offensive numbers for Sizemore, but I doubt he plays 117 games because of injuries. Again, the Phillies have another platoon outfielder to worry about.

Darin Ruf

The next option for the Phillies is converted first-baseman, Darin Ruf. Ruf played in just 52 games for the 2014 Phillies. In those 52 games, Ruf hit .235 with a .310/.402/.712 slash line. Outside of the average, Ruf displayed some offensive value. The 75 points between his batting average and on-base percentage is a great sign. While Ruf has a decent on-base split, struck out in 27.4% of his plate appearances in 2014. This is a trend as Ruf struck out in 31.1% of plate appearances in 2013. No one should expect Ruf to put up the power numbers he did in the minors, but he can be a serviceable bat against left-handed pitching. For his career, Ruf’s offensive splits against left and right-handed pitchers are close in all the major categories, but his defense may keep him off the field.

Long the object of questionable treatment from Phillies brass, Darin Ruf figures to get his most substantial time in the big-leagues in 2015. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

While Ruf displayed brief defense value according to defensive runs saved in 2014, that really isn’t indicative of what he is as a fielder. In 2013, when Ruf played 367.1 innings in the outfield, he was nine defensive runs saved below replacement. All nine defensive runs below replacement came because of his poor range. In left field, his arm will be fine despite it being below average. Left field doesn’t command as much arm strength to all bases like right field.

Essentially, Ruf is a decent offensive option, but in the field, he is a liability.

Darin Ruf’s Steamer projection, according to Fangraphs, puts him in a platoon role. He is projected to play in 61 games, hit .233 with a .306/.390/.696 slash line. Personally, I am selling Ruf higher than this. I know he struggled this winter and is coming off of injury issues, but I think his on-base will be closer to .315 and slugging should be closer to .415, especially if he is in platoon role.

Odubel Herrera

The newest Rule-5 draft pick is another option in left field. The Phillies selected Odubel Herrera is this past year’s Rule-5 draft, which means he must play with the major league team or the Phillies have to return him to the Rangers.

Last year, Herrera played in High-A and Double-A in the Texas Rangers farm system. In those two stops, Herrera hit .315 with a .383/.388/.771 slash line. I know that the level jump could hurt his future on-base percentage, but Herrera never posted an OBP lower than .312. That .312 OBP was hurt by a .289 OBP in Double-A in 2013. Last year in Double-A, Herrera posted a .373 OBP in 96 games. His bat appears ready for the jump at this point.

Herrera also has the chance to steal bases at the next level. In the minors, he stole 128 bases in 178 attempts. Not overwhelming, but it shows that he has speed. At the next level, he will have to pick and choose his spots a little better. He may also benefit from the advice of Ben Revere.

Defensively, Herrera is a work in progress because he is a middle-infielder by trade. He is 5’11, 200 pounds, which doesn’t fit the outfield profile, but that may be his best move. In the minors, Herrera made a ton of errors, which is another reason for the move. Beyond that, J.P Crawford is the shortstop of the future and Chase Utley is locked in at second base while Ryan Howard remains on the team. If Herrera wants to play now, he will need to switch positions. At this time, he will probably be a league-average to slightly below-average left fielder. According to ROTOScouting, Herrera has a peak 50 arm (20-80 scouting scale), which can fit in left field as well. While his power doesn’t fit the corner infield profile, if he can get on base, he should be serviceable.

Steamer is not very high on Herrera heading into 2015. His projects to hit .237 with a .282/.314/.596 slash line. Personally, I am not buying this. I think Herrera projects better than this, especially with OBP. In the minors, Herrera displayed the ability to walk, especially in 2014. I think his OBP may end up closer to .310, but I do expect a learning curve. At this time, Herrera fits as another platoon player, who could fill in at a middle infield position if need be. Remember, he is just 23-years old, so he has time to develop.

Cody Asche

The newest mix to the outfield equation, according to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com, is Cody Asche. Last year, Asche played third base for the Phillies. While at third, Asche hit .252 with a .309/.390/.699 slash line. That slash line doesn’t really fit the normal third base profile, nor does it fit the corner spots. At the plate, Asche is pretty balanced in terms of ground ball, fly ball and line drive percentages, which is good to see out of a young player. Asche does strike out at a high rate for a non-power hitter. A concern with Asche may be the fact that he pulls the ball at such a high rate while not hitting for too much power.

I personally believe Asche has more power than he displayed in 2014, but I am not sold on him as third-baseman or left-fielder.

At third base, Asche was three defesive runs saved below replacement. The reaction time required by a third-baseman may help Asche in the outfield. Quick instincts off the bat is a translatable skill from third base to left field.

The transition is possible, too. Look no further than Alex Gordon in Kansas City. Gordon was a much higher prospect than Asche and has tools that Asche doesn’t, but I am pointing out the transition, not the skill sets. Ryan Braun also made a similar transition early in his career.

Aschehas a decent arm at third base, probably ranking a 50 on the scouting scale. In left field, that shouldn’t be an issue.

If Cody Asche is getting reps in left field already, that means they’re sold on Maikel Franco over Asche. Who can blame the Phillies, though? Franco’s skill set fits the position far more than Asche’s. In the end, Franco may project better at first base if the Phillies can move Ryan Howard, but that doesn’t appear likely to happen before the 2015 season.

Coming into 2015, Franco is the Phillies number three prospect and should at least get a shot at handling third base at the next level, which may force Asche elsewhere.

According to Steamer, Asche is projected to hit .254 with a .310/.413/.723 slash line. I agree with this slash line. As I stated above, Asche has more power than he displayed in 2014. Ultimately, I would prefer to see Asche stay in the infield because he isn’t needed in the outfield. Someone will eventually need play second base once Chase Utley departs and that could be Asche. Obviously, that is contingent on Franco staying at first. One could say prospect Roman Quinn may fill that hole, but he has been playing the outfield, too.

Conclusion

The Phillies have quite the situation on their hands, don’t they? Right now, they have four potential platoon outfielders in Brown, Ruf, Sizemore and Herrera. If you throw Asche into the picture, it becomes more complicated. I think this situation could play out several ways.

First, Ben Revere is the starting center-fielder, no matter what happens. I think Domonic Brown ends up playing in right-field for the Phillies. This will put a platoon of Sizemore and Ruf in left-field with Herrera filling in when needed. This means Asche is the starting third-baseman, Howard at first and Franco in Triple-A.

The second scenario is again with Revere in center and Brown in right, but an Asche and Sizemore platoon in left field. Personally, I don’t think it makes any sense, but if they’re testing him out there, it is possible. This means that Franco is at third base, Howard is not on the roster and Ruf slides from the outfield to first base.

The final scenario gets complicated. As Corey Seidman of CSNPhilly.com stated, the Phillies could be interested in Dayan Viciedo, who has been released by the Chicago White Sox. The 25-year old outfielder hit 21 home runs a season ago for the Sox. While his batting average, on-base percentage and defense remain suspect, he may fit as a platoon option for the Phillies. If the Phillies sign Viciedo, we can assume that Revere is in center, Brown in right and a Sizemore/Viciedo platoon in left field.

Regardless of the scenario that plays out, the Phillies are in trouble. They lack both talent and true depth in the outfield at this time. Look forward and you see Carlos Tocci and Aaron Brown in the Phillies top-10 prospects, according to Baseball Amercia. However, both of them are still years away from being major league ready. Draw it up anyway you want, but the Phillies outfield is looking like the worst in the National League, if not all of baseball. And that might not change for a few years.