Assessing the Phillies aging infield with 2015 on the horizon

The Philadelphia Phillies are now six years removed from their last World Series title. However, the majority of that core infield is still intact. The only infielder from the 2008 World Series Championship team that is not under contract is third baseman, Pedro Feliz. The Phillies did a great job building a strong infield during the early-to-mid 2000’s. That infield helped bring the Phillies five straight National League East titles (2007-2011), two National League pennants (2008-2009) and one World Series victory (2008). It is now 2014, and the core that brought the Phillies five straight National League East titles has aged and continues to regress.

The Philadelphia Phillies have become synonymous with lucrative contracts, but no contract has generated more criticism than that of first baseman, Ryan Howard. Prior to Ryan Howard’s five-year, $125 million contract extension, he earned both Rookie of The Year and MVP honors in the National League. At the time Howard signed the contract (April 2010), he was a premier slugger in baseball, driving in 100 runs each year following his 2005 Rookie of the Year campaign. Howard was capable of driving in 100+ runs each year because of his ability to drive balls into the gap and over the fence. The Phillies signed Howard to a lucrative contract in 2010, but the contract would not start until 2012. The Phillies could not predict that Ryan Howard would tear his Achilles tendon on the final play of the 2011 season, but they could predict future value and regression.

Prior to the Phillies signing Howard, he had shown potential warning signs of regression. One of those signs is that his walk rate dropped by 4-5%, which means either Howard was seeing more strikes or swinging at more pitches out of the zone. Howard’s plate discipline statistics show that following his R.O.Y and M.V.P seasons (2005 and 2006), he saw fewer pitches in the strike zone and starting swinging at a higher percentage of pitches outside of the zone. Howard has always had issues with striking out, but he also swings and misses at a high percentage of pitches—15.1% for his career. The Phillies assumed that the power bat of Howard would make up for the strikeouts, but that has not turned out to be true. Howard has continued to decline in terms of power since 2010-2011 and posted career low numbers in ISO (Slugging/Batting Average) and Slugging Percentage (.380) in 2014.

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There were eight National League first baseman who had a minimum of 500 plate appearances in 2014. Howard finished last in OPS, Batting Average and Slugging Percentage, while finishing second to last in On-Base Percentage. Howard also posted a negative value in terms of Wins Above Replacement, finishing with a -.3 WAR on FanGraphs and -1.1 WAR according to Baseball Reference. Either way, Howard played below replacement level in 2014, but earned $25 million for his efforts. At this point in time, Howard is not of positive value for the Phillies on the field. His 2014 offensive performance was the worst of his career, while continuing to play poor defense. It is reasonable to believe that Howard will not be on the roster at the start of 2015. It is unknown whether the Phillies will release Howard or trade Howard to an American League team. Howard would go to an American League team if released, because of his poor defense, with his true value, if he has any left, coming at DH.

The 2014 season did feature Chase Utley returning to All-Star form. Utley had suffered from knee tendinitis the previous few seasons, sidelining the All-Star second baseman. Utley bounced back in 2014, posting a first half slash line of .349/.445/.794. His .794 OPS and 120 wRC+ helped guide Utley to his sixth All-Star appearance. Not only did Utley rebound offensively, but he was a finalist for the Rawlings Gold Glove Award at second base. Defensively, Utley finished with a UZR of 8.2 in 2014, making 46 plays Out of Zone. Utley displayed his defensive value in 2014, finishing three defensive runs saved above replacement at second base, according to Fielding Bible.

The issue heading into 2015 with Chase Utley is durability. The Phillies know that Utley has chronic knee problems and while he has played 130+ games each of the past two seasons, offensive production drastically fell off in the second half of 2014. Utley posted a second half slash line of .323/.350/.674 and an 85 wRC+. The drop-off in second half production suggests that it may be time for Utley to switch positions. If the Phillies part ways with Howard, Utley could end up at first base, which is not as physically demanding and could help Utley’s overall durability. While Utley’s name has been floated around on the trade market, it is extremely unlikely that he will be moved this offseason. Heading into the 2015 season, the Phillies should expect Utley to remain an All-Star caliber player and to post numbers similar to 2014, regardless of position.

The All-Star second baseman is entering the final year of a two- year, $27 million contract that features option years for 2016-2018. If Utley remains a Phillies past 2015, each option year will pay $15 million.

Ryne Sandberg and the Phillies find themselves in the middle of a position battle at third base. The Phillies have both Cody Asche and Maikel Franco at the hot corner. Both Asche and Franco are under 24 years of age and under club control for the next five to six years. The question becomes whether or not to start Franco with the Phillies or send him to the minors for additional work.

Cody Asche played in 121 games in 2o14, finishing with a .699 OPS and a wRC+ of 94. Both of those numbers are below league average, but it is a small sample size. Not only did Asche fail to produce on offense, but he finished 2014 with a -6.4 UZR and was three defensive runs saved below average at third base, according to Fielding Bible. Should the Phillies move on from Asche at third base? Maybe. The Phillies need a third baseman who is going to hit for power and be at least a league average defender. Maikel Franco could be that solution.

Sep 19, 2014; Oakland, CA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Maikel Franco (7) throws the ball to first base against the Oakland Athletics during the first inning at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

The twenty-two year old third baseman struggled in his short 2014 debut. Franco played in just 16 games and had a .304 OPS. Obviously, a 16 game sample is not enough to truly evaluate a player. If we are going to project Maikel Franco, we must do so off of minor league production and scouting. Scouting reports have listed Franco as a “guess hitter”, suggesting that he will strike out quite a bit at the next level. In the minors, Franco has struck out at a rate consistently over 13% while walking around 5% of the time. While Franco does strike out quite a bit due to his long swing, he has high power potential- rating as a 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Personally, I believe that Franco is going to need more time to develop into the player the Phillies project him to be. Starting the season out in AAA could help Franco out in the long run. The Phillies will not be contending in the near future, so it is important for them to properly develop their farm system. Franco is a key component of that farm system, so it may benefit Franco and the Phillies to keep him in AAA and work on his defense, pitch awareness and cut down his swing. The Phillies will probably start the season with Cody Asche at third base and that is fine as it will give Franco time to develop and let the Phillies get a better look at Asche.

The most under-appreciated Phillie in the past six years is Carlos Ruiz. Ruiz has handled his pitching staff as well as any catcher in the game. Carlos Ruiz has consistently been a two win player throughout his career and posted a 3.2 WAR in 2014. Carlos Ruiz, who is not known for his offense, finished 2014 with .717 OPS and a 105 wRC+. Ruiz’s .717 OPS was 10th best in the National League among catchers with at least 400 plate appearances. While that is not overwhelming, Ruiz’s 3.2 WAR was 5th best in the National League among the same group of catchers. Carlos Ruiz is best known as a defensive catcher, who handles his pitching staff well. Defensively, Ruiz has been excellent during his time with the Phillies. That did not change in 2o14– where Ruiz was 8 defensive runs above replacement while finishing with a .995 fielding percentage. In 2014, Ruiz was just below the league average in caught stealing percentage. Ruiz threw out 27% of all attempted base stealers in 2014 (28% MLB league average). Ruiz was also above league average in Range Factor per game and nine innings in 2014.

Ruiz is entering the second year of a three-year, $26 million contract that includes a club option for 2017 at $4.5 million. Ruiz has been consistent over the course of his career and has a club-friendly contract. The Phillies could explore the option of moving Carlos Ruiz to a contender in 2015. Ruiz would be valuable to a contender because of his defensive value alone. However, I do expect Carlos Ruiz to be on the Phillies opening day roster. In 2015, look for Ruiz to shine on defense while posting league average numbers at the plate. Don’t be surprised if contenders are calling about Ruiz come the trade deadline. (His contract will make him a tough move, though.)

Finally, 2007 MVP Shortstop, Jimmy Rollins. Rollins, who is entering his age 36 season looks to improve from his 2014 campaign. Rollins rebounded in 2014, finishing with a .717 OPS, 101 OPS+. Although Rollins 2014 offensive numbers were league average, it is an improvement from his 2013 season where he finished with a .667 OPS and 86 OPS+. In 2014, Rollins finished fifth in the National League in OPS among Shortstops with 500 plate appearances. Among that same group, Rollins finished fourth in runs created with 74.6 and runs created per 27 out (RC27) with 4.74.

While Rollins rebounded from a dismal 2013, his strikeout rate went up for the fourth consecutive season. The strikeout rate is a concern moving forward, but Rollins showed the ability to draw walks in 2014,which he did in 10.5% of his plate appearances.

Not only did Rollins walk more, but he left the yard more as well. Rollins, who hit only six home runs in 2013, managed to hit 17 in 2014, helping him to increase him ISO power (Slugging %- Batting Average) by .054 and Slugging Percentage by .046. The four-time Gold Glove Winner was 4 defensive runs above replacement, while making 63 Out of Zone (OOZ) plays. Rollins finsihed 2014 with a 3.7 UZR, showing the Rollins is still valuable at the Shortstop position. On top of his positive UZR, Rollins posted a 1.0 dWAR (Defensive Wins Above Replacement) and an overall WAR of 3.9 (Baseball Reference). The Phillies should expect a 2015 season from Rollins that is similar to his 2014 performance, but do not be surprised if he slightly regresses. Rollins should finish 2015 as a 2-3 WAR player, which could be valuable to a contender. Due to his 10-5 rights, I foresee Rollins playing the entire 2015 season in Philadelphia. Rollins would have to give the okay for the Phillies to trade him, and at this point, that is unlikely to happen.

Overall, I believe the Phillies have a lot of question marks and some trade pieces heading into 2015. The Phillies infield is old and their skill sets are declining. To expect a high return from a team for league average players is insane, so we need to come back to reality as it is 2014, not 2008.

I believe the Ryan Howard trade/release scenarios will play out around the winter meetings. Either way, the Phillies are going to take on most, if not all of his remaining salary. At that point, it will be interesting to see if the Phillies want to move Utley to first, but if the choose not to, they will go with Darin Ruf. Maikel Franco has played first in the minors, but that is a long shot at this time.
As I previously stated, Cody Asche should be the opening day third baseman. Maikel Franco needs time to put it all together and work on his overall skill set.
Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley are interesting because they both have 10-5 rights and are unlikely to be moved, but if they decided to waive their no-trade clauses, teams would be interested in them, depending on what the Phillies ask for in return.
Carlos Ruiz will be solid behind the plate while providing an average bat for the 2015 Phillies. Again, Ruiz is another trade piece for a team looking in improve behind the plate, and for some, an offensive upgrade.

Regardless of what the Phillies would like to do, they are locked into some of their current deals. This means that the Phillies hands are tied and they cannot seek a return for a players services and in the case of Ryan Howard, they may pay him to play elsewhere. The Phillies infield, once their core, is aging and while they have a few interesting pieces heading into 2015, their hands are mostly tied.

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