Phillies Bullpen Needs to Come of Age in 2015
By Jason Ferrie
It has been six years since the Phillies won the World Series and closer Brad Lidge completed his perfect season. The “bridge-to-Lidge” is now a distant memory to Phillies fans. The bullpen is now filled with a group of young, relatively unproven players. The Philadelphia Phillies have brought in names like Jonathan Papelbon, Mike Adams and Chad Qualls over the course of the past few seasons in an attempt to solidify the bullpen, but that plan–at least in the case of Adams and Qualls–failed. Adams and Qualls are no longer with the team, and Papelbon has been a lightning rod in three seasons in Philly. The bullpen has been a weak point, but a host of young arms could become a foundation for future success in Philadelphia.
The first name that comes to mind when talking about the Phillies bullpen is Jonathan Papelbon. There are a variety of reasons that Papelbon’s name comes to the forefront, whether it is his contract, diminishing velocity or personal antics. Ruben Amaro Jr. signed Jonathan Papelbon to a four year, $50 million contract with a guaranteed option in 2016 if Papelbon finishes 55 games in 2015 or 100 games between 2014-2015. The 2016 vesting-option would be worth $13 million. In all likelihood, Papelbon will earn the $13 million option as he finished 52 games in 2014 and remain the closer heading into the 2016 season. Papelbon is not the best arm in the Phillies bullpen anymore, but his salary will allow him to keep the closing role.
Moving forward, it is fair to ask whether or not Papelbon’s diminished velocity is a cause for concern. The answer is both yes and no. Yes, because Papelbon is being paid at a premium and throws a lot of fastballs (86% of all pitches in 2014). The velocity may be a concern because Papelbon is not missing as many bats either. Between 2007-2012, the closer averaged over ten strikeouts per nine innings, but that dropped to 8.32 and 8.55 strikeouts per nine innings in 2013 and 2014. The reason the velocity may not be of concern is that Papelbon has been consistent in terms of ERA, FIP and WHIP. Wins Above Replacement has also been a consistent metric for Papelbon, posting a WAR no lower than 1.5 in each of his three seasons in Philadelphia. It is fair to question Papelbon’s contract, but there is no denying his value. Did the Phillies overpay the former Red Sox closer? Absolutely. Papelbon may not be a $13 million a year pitcher, but he remains a very good closer and a potential trade piece heading into 2015.
While Papelbon is the feature name in the bullpen, there are complimentary names that Philadelphia needs to recognize. Jake Diekman and Justin De Fratus are two young arms in the Phillies bullpen. Diekman, a left-handed pitcher, has touched 100 MPH with his fastball. Diekman throws from a low 3/4 arm angle, which allows him to hide the ball from opposing hitters. Diekman posted a 3.80 ERA in 2014, but his 2.65 FIP would suggest he pitched better than his ERA indicates. The power-lefty had 100 strikeouts in 71 innings pitched in 2014, while issuing 35 walks. Walks are not the only issue for Diekman as he had a 69.1% left on base rate in 2014. If Diekman wants to have success in 2015 and beyond, he needs to leave runners on base while limiting his walks. How can this be done? First pitch strikes. Diekman’s first pitch strike rate in 2014 was 55.3%, which needs to improve. The first pitch of an at-bat is the most important in the sequence. If Diekman can get ahead in the count, he can take control of the count and the at-bat.
The next arm to know in this bullpen is Justin De Fratus. The 2014 season was the second 50+ appearance season for Justin De Fratus. In those two seasons, De Fratus has stranded over 75% of runners. Not only did the right-hander strand runners at a 75% clip, but he had a four to one strikeout to walk-ratio. De Fratus showed signs of improvement from his previous 50 appearance season, improving around a full run in ERA and FIP (2.39 ERA and 3.11 FIP in 2014). If De Fratus can continue to strand runners at an above-average clip while appearing in over 50 games a season, you can expect to hear his name in Philadelphia for a while.
There are a few arms who are newer, but useful pieces to the Phillies bullpen. Mario Hollands and Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez are interesting bullpen pieces for the Phillies. Hollands appeared in 50 games for the Phillies, logging 47 innings and finishing with a 4.40 ERA. Sure, the 4.40 ERA is not impressive, but his 3.88 FIP suggests he may be slightly better than ERA may lead you to think . Holland had issues allowing runners to reach base in 2014. He allowed 21 walks and 45 hits in his 47 innings. A WHIP in the 1.40 range is not a recipe for success and Hollands 4.40 ERA demonstrates that. Moving into 2015, I expect similar numbers from Hollands if he stays in current role. I would suggest that Hollands become a matchup oriented pitcher, strictly throwing to left-handed batters. Left-handed opponents hit .238 off of Hollands with a .307/.316/.623 slash line. A slash line like Hollands vs. left-handed batters is very useful and needs to be utilized by Ryne Sandberg and Bob McClure.
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Finally, the two most interesting pieces the the bullpen moving into 2015. Antonio Bastardo has been an asset in the Phillies bullpen since 2010. Bastardo, to the surprise of some, is extremely undervalued. When evaluating Bastardo, it is easy to point out his fluctuating ERA from year to year. Don’t do that. When a player is fluctuating from year to year, look at FIP. FIP strips out defense and luck. It is a better measure of how the pitcher specifically is throwing. Using FIP, Bastardo has not been above a 3.34 in his five years with the Phillies. Consistency is key for relievers, as it makes them an asset. Bastardo has been very consistent, which makes him an asset for the Phillies and a valuable trade piece. Not only has Bastardo been consistent in terms of FIP, but he has averaged over ten strikeouts per nine innings for his career. If there is a concern with Bastardo heading into 2015, it would be his poor left on base percentage. Bastardo left just 65.4% of runners on base this past year. That is down 17% from 2013. Moving forward, I do not think LOB% will be a concern for Bastardo, as I expect him to move back toward his 2013 LOB%.
The most exciting arm in the Phillies bullpen is Ken Giles. The Phillies have found their bullpen ace and he came bursting onto the scene on June 12, 2014. Giles shows up in a big way for the 2014 Phillies providing them with an electric fastball and wipeout slider. The rookie pitched in 44 games, finishing with a 1.18 ERA and 1.34 FIP. While those numbers are impressive, they come along with a 0.78 WHIP and a 12.6 strikeout per nine. The Phillies rookie phenom overpowered hitters with his 98-101 MPH fastball. Giles fastball was complimented by a slider that held opponents to a .101 batting average and .255 OPS. These numbers earned Giles fourth in the National League Rookie of The Year. The Phillies should see similar production (relatively) out of Giles in 2015, as he looks to make a statement that he is among the elite bullpen arms in all of baseball.
The 2015 Philadelphia Phillies bullpen will be well served by their youth. Papelbon is the leader in the bullpen and needs to take the young guns under his wing. Whether or not you like Papelbon, he has had a great career and the young arms in the bullpen can learn from him. Ultimately, I believe that Diekman, De Fratus and Gonzalez are the wild cards of the bullpen. Diekman shows glimpses of being dominant, but has yet to put it together for a full season. Justin De Fratus pitched very well last year and needs to continue that trend heading into 2015. Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez could end up in the rotation, but I think he will have his most success out of the bullpen. Enjoy watching Antonio Bastardo because I do not think he will be on the roster at the end of 2015. The Phillies would be wise to trade the reliever prior to the 2015 trade deadline. Finally, kick back and enjoy Ken Giles dominance. I promise you, you won’t be disappointed.