Recent Head Coaching Hire Sparks Rumors of Potential Eagles Wide Receiver Trade

Almost as soon as Mike Vrabel was hired as the new head coach of the New England Patriots, rumors were abound. These rumors are definitely not one Philadelphia Eagles fans will want to hear. That is a potential Vrabel and A.J. Brown reunion!

Given that wide receiver is one of the Patriots' biggest needs in their pursuit of contending, Brown makes a ton of sense. It is no surprise given Vrabel and Brown have a history from their Tennessee Titans days together. Also, their relationship has remained very close despite not being on the same team or as coach and player.

While the move would be welcomed for a New England Patriots team that hasn't had a franchise wide receiver since 2019 Julian Edelman. Would trading away Brown really make sense for an Eagles team currently enjoying an open Super Bowl Window?

The History 

Vrabel began a seven-year head coaching stint with the Tennessee Titans in 2018. After the 2018 season, the Titans looked to improve on a Corey Davis-led 891-yard receiving season. The Titans elected to draft Brown with the 51st pick in the second round pick of the 2019 NFL Draft. This would begin the now blossoming relationship between Vrabel and Brown.

Brown went on to lead the Titans for three straight seasons in receiving yards. He amassed 185 receptions, 2995 receiving yards, and 25 total touchdowns from 2019 to 2021. An amazing stretch of three years of receiving given the state of the Titans' offense during that time. The Titans passing offense never ranked better than 20th in yards while Brown was there.

Then came the fateful night. Draft night, April 28, 2022. Brown was traded from the Tennessee Titans for a 2022 1st round pick (No.18), which turned into wide receiver Treylon Burks, and a 2022 3rd round pick (No.101), which was traded later in the draft. The Eagles got their superstar receiver and the Titans moved onto the potential future of their receiving corps. The move caught Vrabel by surprise and also upset the former Titans coach.

The Trade Fall-Out

The rest truly is history. Brown has gone on to become the Eagles' No.1 receiver over the last three straight seasons. He has eclipsed 1000 yards in each season, totaling 4,031 yards across 261 receptions and scoring 25 total touchdowns. Howie Roseman landed his franchise quarterback Jalen Hurts, an elite receiving weapon that altered the Eagles' offense for the last three seasons.

For Burks and Vrabel the story didn't end as expected. The trade put an initial nail in the coffin for Vrabel and certainly the Titans' offense. The total offense which ranked 15th in Brown's final season in 2021, went on to rank 30th and 28th in Vrabel’s final two seasons. The passing offense which ranked 24th in Brown's final season, fell to 30th and 29th the next two seasons.

Burks has struggled moving from college to the NFL. He had 699 yards on 53 receptions and one total touchdown in three seasons. Most recently in 2023 missing a large chunk of the season due to a concussion and knee soreness. Not great especially with a new manager coming into the picture, Burks could be nearing the end of his time with the Titans.

Why the Patriots?

The Patriots feel they have their superstar quarterback of the future in Drake Maye. Maye appeared in 13 games throwing for 2,276 yards and 15 passing touchdowns. He also added 54 carries for 421 yards and two touchdowns. 

This all while having one of the worst protection rates, 19.6% of dropbacks resulting in a hurry or forced throw in less than three seconds. Not to mention a receiving group that ranked No. 38 in target separation. This group of receivers was led by Hunter Henry at 674 receiving yards, with no receiver surpassing 700 receiving yards or three touchdowns.

The Patriots have the most salary cap space to work with this offseason. Plus, a No. 5 ranked draft pick value on Tankathon, highlighted by 4 picks in the top 80 including pick No. 4. The Patriots have a plethora of young, untapped wide receivers, but none truly an alpha, elite No.1 wide receiver.

This is why they have been connected to top free agent wide receiver Tee Higgins. And to no surprise, Vrabel wouldn't mind trying to get Brown back. A true alpha is needed to maximize Maye and the complement of receivers on the roster like, DeMario Douglas, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Kayshon Boutte. 

This type of move just makes too much sense for a team in desperate need of an alpha receiver to transform the offense. They also have the draft capital and salary cap to work with.

Should the Eagles do it?

Brown has been a roller coaster ride of emotions at times for the Eagles, especially in the last two seasons. Oftentimes seen as a bit of a diva. This year alone, two instances of negative media attention. 

He made the vague “passing” comment after the Eagles win over the Carolina Panthers. This frustration prompted a media frenzy around Jalen Hurts and the passing game's capabilities.

Then of course all the attention, some jokes, but a handful of bad things around being seen reading a book on the sidelines after a failed offensive drive. This led to further criticism of the passing game as Brown was targeted three times and made one reception Wild Card Weekend against the Packers.

Despite these diva-like situations, Brown has been monumental to this offense over the last three years. The stats and game-changing plays in his time as an Eagle speak for themselves. He has done exactly what the Eagles expected when acquiring him.

Brown is only going to be 28 at the start of next season. Brown and the Eaglesjust agreed on an extension in the off-season. He is under team control until 2030 with respectable cap hits for his level of play and based on the cost for elite receivers right now. I would find it hard to believe, based on being a core part of this offense and the run they are on this season, that the Eagles would move on.

Draft capital is great and all, but he is not an immediately replaceable asset for this Eagles offense. He has led the Eagles in receiving over the three years he has been here. The tandem of Smith and Brown has solidified a highly reliable receiving duo. With an added bonus, they are under contract for the next three-plus seasons.

Comparable Trade Value

When we look at recent comparable deals, in the last season the only two players moved of consideration, and very light consideration at that, would be Amari Cooper and Davante Adams. Cooper and a 6th-round pick were dealt to the Buffalo Bills for a 3rd-round pick and 7th.

Adams' deal to the Jets was for a 3rd round pick as well, which could have conveyed to a second based on All-Pro or playoff stipulations. Even dating back to 2023, the comparable deal would be DJ Moore dealt to the Chicago Bears, but that involved multiple 1st round picks and moving up to the No. 1 pick in the draft for the Bears.

The precedent doesn't really exist in the last two seasons because wide receivers of Brown's magnitude are vital for NFL offenses. Going back to 2022, you find the Brown deal, Tyreek Hill to Miami Dolphins deal, and Adams to Las Vegas Raiders deal. All of these deals involved first-round picks and more. The Adams and Hill deals were first and second-round picks. 

The Patriots wouldn't be looking to move off their first-rounder in 2025 since it is No. 4 overall and too rich to start a deal for Brown. So Howie Roseman would be kicking the can down the road on getting a 1st round pick in return. The deal would likely begin with a future 1st and then the Patriots second-rounder this season, pick No. 38.

The deal doesn't make much sense for an Eagles team loaded with young talent and key players under contract for multiple years ahead. Their Super Bowl window is open and will remain this way for the next couple of seasons. It isn't impossible, but it is highly unlikely Roseman would move Brown this off-season without costing the Patriots a pretty penny.

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