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Section 215’s Best Philly Betting Picks for 8/8 (Phillies-Nats Game 1, Fading the NL East)

Aug 6, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies left fielder Kyle Schwarber (12) high fives shortstop Trea Turner (7) and second baseman Bryson Stott (5) as the celebrate win against the Kansas City Royals at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 6, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies left fielder Kyle Schwarber (12) high fives shortstop Trea Turner (7) and second baseman Bryson Stott (5) as the celebrate win against the Kansas City Royals at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports /
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We’ll be treated to a double dose of Phillies action on Tuesday after yesterday’s rainout. Aside from looking at Game 1 for betting value, we’re also fading several NL East rivals.

Ahead of a busy day, here are out best Philly betting picks for Aug. 8.

Best Philly Betting Picks 8/8

Tyler Maher: Phillies Runline vs Nationals – Game 1

After getting rained out yesterday, the Phillies and Nationals will square off in a doubleheader today. Based on the pitching matchups, we really like Philly’s chances in the first game.

The Phillies will kick off the twin bill with Zack Wheeler on the mound. Wheeler has been dealing lately, as he’s coming off 5 straight quality starts with a 2.76 ERA and a 37:3 K/BB ratio during that span.

He’ll go up against Trevor Williams, who’s been a lot more hittable. Williams has given up 9 runs and 16 hits in 10 innings over his last two outings, pushing his ERA and FIP up to 4.72 and 5.55, respectively.

That puts our offense in a great spot to give Wheeler some run support and stake him to an early lead. Our last five wins have all come by multiple runs, too, so look for that trend to continue against a Washington team that we’ve outscored 46-24 in six games this season.

At plus odds, Philly’s runline has some nice value, too, making it even more attractive.

Jason Schandl: Reds Runline vs. Marlins

Remember yesterday when the Reds covered the runline at the highest rate in the MLB while the Marlins at a bottom-five rate? Well last night’s 5-3 Reds win has only made that trend more pronounced, and I’m ready to cash in on it again.

The Reds’ 62.6% cover rate is a full percentage point higher than anyone else in the majors, while the Marlins’ rate is just 44.7%.

Things may look a little bleak for Cincy with Luke Weaver on the mound today, but when we’re looking at covering the runline, we’re not only concerned with whether someone is good or bad — we’re looking at how they perform relative to expectations. And Weaver has not been nearly as bad as his 6.98 ERA might make it seem, with a 5.07 xFIP showing he’s been more “run-of-the-mill bad” than “complete disaster bad.”

And for the Marlins, Braxton Garrett has completely fallen apart lately, with a 5.83 ERA since July 1st, while allowing a 44.1% hard-hit rate to just an abysmally low 7.5% soft-hit rate.

I don’t necessarily think the Reds pull off another upset here, but I do like them to at least keep it close and keep these trends rolling.

Isaiah De Los Santos: Cubs Moneyline vs. Mets

The Mets came out swinging in the first game of this series on Monday. However, there’s reason to believe in the Cubs returning the favor today.

The pitching matchup is what makes me bullish about Chicago’s chances in Game 2. The Cubs are sending out Jameson Taillon tonight, and he’s been on a roll as of late, holding opponents to 2 runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. He’s fared better on the road this year as well, posting an improved 4.28 ERA across eight starts, so he doesn’t need friendly confines to bring his best stuff.

Meanwhile, the Mets are trotting out Carlos Carrasco, who’s in the middle of a disastrous stretch. The righty’s given up 21 earned runs over his last four starts, and he just got shelled by the lowly Royals for 6 runs in his last time out.

Carrasco’s somehow been even worse at home this year, posting a garish 8.51 ERA across seven outings. This is the exact kind of struggling pitcher to take advantage of, so I’m backing the Cubs’ to win tonight.

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