Following the weekend, we’re back with more betting picks. Monday features plenty of NL East action, including the Phillies versus the Nationals. With it also being Jalen Hurts’ birthday, we’re looking ahead to a big year from the QB.
Here are Section 215’s best Philly betting picks today.
Best Philly Betting Picks 8/7
Tyler Maher: Nationals Runline @ Phillies
The Phillies took care of business over the weekend with back-to-back wins over the Royals, finishing the week 5-2. They’re in a great spot to keep rolling on Monday at home against another weak opponent in the Nationals, who are coming off a surprising three-game sweep of the Reds.
Washington is 12 games behind us in the standings and starts Trevor Williams tonight. He’s 5-6 with a 4.72 ERA and a 5.55 FIP this year, making him an inviting target for Philly’s offense. Williams is also coming off a pair of rough outings where he surrendered 9 runs on 16 hits in 10 innings, so he hasn’t been at his best lately.
The Phillies will call on Ranger Suarez, who’s coming off 6 ⅓ innings of one-run ball against the Marlins. His 2-5 record and 4.01 ERA this year are disappointing, however, and he’s been getting shelled at home (0-2, 5.70 ERA). That trend may continue against a Nationals offense that ranks 12th in MLB in wRC+ (109) against southpaws.
That makes this a sneaky-good matchup for the Nats, who are 38-18 against the runline on the road. The Phillies are just 17-34 against the runline at home, too.
I hate to fade Philadelphia in a game it should win, but the trends say Washington is the better bet here.
Isaiah De Los Santos: Jalen Hurts Total Pass TDs OVER
It’s Jalen Hurts’ birthday today, and I feel like celebrating with a bet on his performance this season.
The now 25-year-old made major progress as a passer during the 2022 season, which played a huge role in Philly’s Super Bowl run. Hurts recorded a career-high 22 passing touchdowns in his third campaign, as the arrival of friend and Pro Bowl wideout A.J. Brown provided a major boon to the offense.
Heading into 2023, Hurts will run it back with a top WR duo in Brown and DeVonta Smith, plus playmaker Dallas Goedert at tight end. There’s also a fierce battle for the No. 3 role that has a clear frontrunner right now in Quez Watkins, who could be taking the next step following some camp competition. Plus, Philly acquired an elite pass-catching running back in D’Andre Swift this offseason.
At a minimum, Dallas’ internal development and outside additions should help Hurts replicate his 22 passing touchdowns. There’s also significant buzz out of practice that the QB appears to have gotten significantly better as a thrower, which is just another reason to buy into a huge showing through the air. I love targeting Hurts’ passing TD total of just 21.5 on FanDuel.
Jason: Reds Runline vs Marlins
Looking around the NL East, tonight provides an outstanding opportunity to fade Miami, which is always fun.
Besides fun, it’s also been profitable. The Marlins have covered the runline in only 45.1% of their games this season, which is the fourth-lowest rate in the majors.
That edge should easily be exploited tonight with Cincinnati on the other side of the matchup too, as the Reds have been on the far opposite end of the spectrum.
Cincinnati has covered the runline an absurd 62.3% of the time, which is tops in the majors.
Eury Perez (5-3, 2.36 ERA) vs Brandon Williamson (3-2, 4.85) may provide a big pitching edge for Miami, but it’s been a month since Perez last pitched a major league game and his two Double-A starts since then have both been duds (2 ER in 2 1/3 innings and 3 ER in 3 1/3).
I’m backing the trends here and going with the Reds at least keeping it close.
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