Section 215
Fansided

Philadelphia 76ers: Joel Embiid can’t play into the foul game

By Matty Breisch

(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /
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When he’s on the court, is there anyone better than Joel Embiid?

I mean seriously, we’re talking about a (basically) legit 7-footer who can score from anywhere, defend multiple positions, and play the paint like a Millennial Bob Ross. When the Philadelphia 76ers need a bucket, they can turn to Embiid; when they need a defensive stop right at the hoop, they turn to Embiid. Heck, Embiid even provides the most entertaining interviews of any member of the team, which isn’t particularly relevant to his on-court efforts but is true nonetheless.

So, if you’re a team tasked with slowing down this Braun Strowman-esque locomotive barreling down the lane towards the hoop, what are you to do? Foul him? Fouling Embiid just strengthens his stat line, as the Cameroonian big man is an 85.9 percent free-throw shooter and relishes his minute or so mini-rest at the line.

No, in a weird twist of fate, the Washington Wizards seemingly figured out a unique counter for Embiid’s heroics that, frankly, I’m shocked more teams haven’t tried to exploit previously: Get Embiid into foul trouble.

I know, crazy, right? Embiid can’t hurt you at either end of the court if he physically isn’t on it; if it wasn’t so obvious, it would be genius. But when you have a head coach as conservative as Doc Rivers, it’s the best way to get the Philadelphia 76ers’ best player off the court is to get him two fouls in the first, a third in the second, and then sit back to watch chaos ensue.

The Philadelphia 76ers need to keep Embiid on the court and out of foul trouble.

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To his credit, Joel Embiid played a (mostly) clean game in the second half of the Philadelphia 76ers’ 125-118 win over the Washington Wizards.

Despite being goaded at both ends of the court to play aggressively, Embiid didn’t record a fourth foul until there was 1:11 left to play in the fourth quarter when the W was essentially locked in at 116-108.

Sidebar: Did anyone else catch Bradley Beal‘s face when the Arena staff started playing “Here come the Sixers” with roughly 11 seconds to go. My goodness, he was mad mad.

Had things been a bit more contested in the waning moments of an initially exciting contest that became a bit too close for comfort by the end of the first, maybe Embiid’s fouls status would have become more of a factor in the final outcome, but thankfully, that wasn’t the case.

But could it be moving forward in a different game under deferential circumstances? Not only could it be, I’d almost expect it.

Objectively speaking, Tobias Harris had a fantastic outing in the Sixers’ first home playoff win since 2019. He scored a career-high 37 points in the same number of minutes and near-singlehandedly kept Doc Rivers’ squad in the game for long stretches of time as their first, second, and only offensive option.

Do you know what his final plus-minus was for the contest?

+2.

Without context, that doesn’t mean much. Plus-minus is one of the least effective stats in all of sports at accurately articulating how a player performs because it doesn’t take into account individual efforts, situations, or lineup strength. All Harris’ plus-minus states is that the Sixers outscored the Wizards by two points when he was on the floor in a 7-point game.

Do you know what Embiid’s plus-minus was for Game 1? Yeah, that’d be a +20 in 30 minutes.

It’s hard to beat any team, even one with as spotty a caravan of 3 point shooters as the Sixers when their best player finishes out the game +20 in a typical 30 minutes of playoff basketball.

If Embiid’s 30 minutes shrink to 26, or even to, say 24, the chances of a team like the Wizards, Atlanta Hawks, or Brooklyn Nets taking advantage of that becomes a whole lot easier to imagine.

Why? One word: Math.

On the 2020-21 regular season, the Wizards scored an average of 2.43 points per minute while surrendering 2.47 points per minute. Over the same period of time, the 76ers scored an average of 2.36 points per minute while only giving up 2.25. If those numbers hold, Philly wins with ease no matter who scores the points at what time. However, without Embiid, the Sixers’ average points scored was 2.28, while their points allowed ballooned up to 2.28, which isn’t nearly as good.

Assuming Embiid remains healthy and doesn’t start racking up technical fouls like his name’s Dwight Howard, the Sixers should have their best player available to go for every game of the postseason at his career average of 32.8 minutes per game. If he loses four-six of those minutes due to foul trouble, the Sixers, in turn, lose their competitive advantage and could find themselves burdened by a growing lead they just can’t overcome.

But why, you may ask, doesn’t Doc just play Embiid with two fouls in the first, three in the second, or even four in the third? Because if Embiid somehow fouls out of a playoff game, it’s borderline game over on securing that W regardless of the score or time remaining.

From now on, expect opposing players big and small to lean into Embiid drives, stand strong when he drives, and flop like you’ve never seen whenever he attempts an athletic move. Even if it doesn’t work, and Embiid gets to the line, the competitive advantage gained by racking up even one ticky-tack foul could significantly alter the course of a game and maybe even a series.

Fortunately, the Sixers don’t play again until Wednesday night, so they’ll have plenty of time to come back for Game 2 ready for whatever Scott Brooks and company try to throw at them.

Even if Embiid has to play with a bit more restraint – which, admittedly is probably hard with a ruckus South Philly crowd shaking the Wells Fargo Center – he’s so much better than any other center in the East right now that his very presence is a borderline cheat code whenever he’s on the court. As long as he’s technically eligible to play in the final minutes of the game, that’s all that really matters.

Next. Tobias Harris lays the bricks for a playoff foundation. dark

Could Doc Rivers be a bit more liberal with his playing time for starters in foul trouble? Sure, but at this point, no one is expecting the Philadelphia 76ers’ head coach to completely abandon his stripes. What will surely change, however, is how teams will attempt to keep Joel Embiid off the court to potentially garner a competitive advantage. Fortunately, Embiid can remain a dominant force even if he has to play with a slightly softer touch, which should make any adjustment needed entirely manageable and easy to accomplish. You just need to TTP.