Philadelphia Phillies: Reduced velocity the key for Hector Neris in 2021?

Despite the additions of both Archie Bradley and Jose Alvarado this past offseason, Joe Girardi made a somewhat surprising decision leading into Opening Day when he named Hector Neris the closer. The Philadelphia Phillies main ninth inning arm the last couple of seasons, Neris has had an up-and-down Philly tenure.

The fiery right-hander has put up both good and bad seasons as the Phillies closer, with the general consensus being that he’s probably better suited for a setup role.

However, Girardi obviously felt differently, citing Hector’s experience in the role as the main reason he was named the team’s primary closer. Albeit confusing at the time, the decision has paid off thus far, as Neris has looked genuinely great through his first two appearances of the season. He shut down the Braves in the ninth inning on both Thursday and Saturday, recording a combined total of four strikeouts in the process.

As someone who’s been fairy critical of Neris in the past, one thing really stuck out to me during his two dominant outings against Atlanta.

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His velocity was down. Like, way down.

According to FanGraphs.com, Hector Neris’ four-seam fastball velocity has hovered around 94-95 MPH for the entirety of his MLB career. It was 94.3 last year, and it sits at 94.7 across his seven-year tenure as a major league reliever.

Through his first two appearances in 2021, Neris’ four-seam velocity was 92.2.

Neris’ splitter, his main strikeout pitch, has an average velocity of 86.7 MPH across his career. On Thursday and Saturday, it was down at 82.0.

Now for what it’s worth, it’s not unheard of for players to “ramp up” their velocity as the season progresses. Plenty of pitchers need a few extra innings and a few extra bullpen sessions before their arms are ready to operate at full capacity. However, it did seem like Hector was having a far easier time locating his pitches while using the decreased velocity, which has me thinking that maybe it’s intentional, something that pitching coach Caleb Cotham instructed Hector to do during the offseason.

Albeit a very small sample size, the 2021 version of Neris’ fastball is technically the best it’s ever been, according to FanGraph’s runs above average per 100 pitches. Neris’ fastball currently sits at 7.32 runs above average/100 pitches after his first two outings – the first time it’s been over a 1.00 since 2014.

Neris’ slower-than-average splitter is experiencing a similar phenomena as well, as its runs above average/100 pitches is currently 4.59 – the highest it’s been since the 2014 season.

Philadelphia Phillies seeing some reduced velocity from their closer.

The disclaimer of this all being a very small sample size is obviously super important (we’re not even one full series through the season!), it’s way too early to make any sort of grand conclusions regarding player performance. However, the speed at which Neris throws his pitches moving forward is definitely something to keep an eye on. For as stressful as some of his outings can be at times, there’s no denying that “Hector the Protector” has some serious natural talent.

If taking a bit off his pitches and focusing more on location and control is what helps him unlock that elite closer potential – I’m all for it.

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We likely won’t see Hector pitch again until Monday or Tuesday when the Philadelphia Phillies take on the New York Mets. It will be the Phils first time seeing this new-look, Lindor-led Mets squad, so everyone will need to be on top of their games for this second series of the year, including Neris.

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