Philadelphia 76ers: Tobias Harris is more Ryan Madson than Brad Lidge

In the closing frame of the Philadelphia 76ers‘ 122-113 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves, the announcing tandem of Marc Zumoff and Alaa Abdelnaby drew the, shall we say, unique compassion between combo forward du jour Tobias Harris and Philadelphia Phillies legend Brad Lidge.

Did the comp come out of nowhere? Yes. Did it make a ton of sense based on the circumstances of a relatively out-of-reach game? No. But is it the kind of off-the-cuff remark that generates a ton of online buzz and think pieces?

You’d best believe it because you’re reading one right now, baby.

So what gives? Has Tobias Harris turned into the second coming of Jimmy Butler right under our noses, or will the Philadelphia 76ers have to turn to Joel Embiid in crunch time when the chips are down in the playoffs?

Fortunately, we have our good friend, statistics, to answer that very question.

Tobias Harris has been a pretty effective closer for the Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers.

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In the 10 games between Joel Embiid’s absence and return from a knee injury, Tobias Harris started seven games for the Philadelphia 76ers.

In those games, Harris averaged 32.7 minutes of action, scored 21.6 points per game, and recorded a +/- of 5.3, if you care about that sort of thing. Said stretch was also noteworthy because Harris only attempted 2.6 3 pointers a game – one shot below his season average – but has been able to drain them at a 42.3 clip, or roughly 1.1 per game.

Objectively speaking, those numbers don’t really tell us a whole lot about whether or not Harris is serving as a suitable game closer, as, for example, his teammate Ben Simmons has been known to front-load his points before turning into a distributor in the second half, but for that, we can check into advanced analytics to see if Harris is actually serving as the Sixers’ fourth quarter point and if he’s been efficient in that role.

Right, so according to the NBA’s advanced stats, Harris has led the Sixers over the past 10 games in total possessions, which is impressive considering he played in three fewer games than players like Danny Green, Dwight Howard, and Matisse Thybulle. Harris has averaged the most fourth-quarter minutes of any player on the team at 9.3 and ranks third in both Usage Percentage and Player Impact Estimate, trailing Tyrese Maxey and Shake Milton in the former and Dwight Howard and Tony Bradley in the latter.

Sidebar: Do y’all remember Tony Bradley? Good time, good times.

So, on paper at least, Zoo and Alaa are dead on that the Sixers have been turning to Harris more often in the fourth quarter than earlier in the season and in earlier quarters, but does that mean he’s necessarily become a “lights out” closer like future Phillies Wall of Fame inductee Brad Lidge?

So far, the results are mixed.

While Harris has been asked to shoulder a bigger role than any other player on the team, he hasn’t been particularly efficient at doing it, as his -0.8 Net Rating ranks 14th on the team above only Danny Green and Seth Curry. His Assist to Turnover Ratio is 1.2, which ranks third on the team over said stretch of fourth-quarter games, but Harris is only assisting on 18.8 percent of his shots, which is a far cry from Milton’s 32.5 percent.

To make matters worse, Harris graded out in the bottom half of the Sixers’ players on both Effective Field Goal Percentage and True Shooting Percentage, signifying that when Harris is attempting to score those clutch end of game buckets, he’s making them at a far less efficient clip than players like Milton, Maxey, and Green, who, unrelated, leads the NBA in left corner 3 shooting percentage.

So what gives? Is Harris less efficient because he’s taking on a more expansive role a la Milton on the second unit (more on that here), or is he just a mediocre fit for that specific role?

Honestly, it’s a little bit of both.

While Harris would surely be knocking down shots and making plays far more frequently on a complementary role paired up with a game plan changing superstar like Embiid, he also has a bit of a reputation for lacking that killer instinct that separates the good players from the great in the clutch – a reputation well earned over a decade in the NBA.

But honestly, that’s okay. Harris doesn’t have to be Brad Lidge when the Sixers have their roster at full strength; that’s why they have Embiid. No, what the Sixers really need is to find their setup guy – their Ryan Madson, if you will – who can play off of Embiid and close out the game on top.

That, my friends, appears to be a role Harris was born to play.

In Embiid’s first game back, which is admittedly a small sample size, Harris slid perfectly into the number two spot behind “The Process” in Usage Rate but still finished out the game with the most overall fourth-quarter possessions at 20. His True Shooting Percentages jumped up to first overall on the team, a notable jump from the games prior, and Harris even saw his Assists Percentage rocket up to 66.6 percent, again, due in no small part to having the best center in basketball anchoring the offense in the paint.

Together, more so than apart, Harris and Embiid look to be forming a pretty wicked two-man game the likes of which will be very hard to guard for any team, especially teams like the Nets, Bucks, and Celtics who lack an elite center to try to contest shots at the basket.

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So, in summation, Tobias Harris isn’t the basketball equivalent of Brad Lidge, and frankly, that’s okay. While the Philadelphia 76ers would surely like to luck into such a player to really cement their place long-term as the Kings of the East, I’m sure Daryl Morey, Doc Rivers, and company will happily settle for the best one-two fourth quarter punch this side of the Rocky Mountains. Factor in Ben Simmons’ potential as a screener, and something seriously special might be cooking up in South Philly, much like the bullpen of the championship-winning 2008 Philadelphia Phillies.