Philadelphia Eagles: A top wide receiver could still fall to 12

With one simple tweet, the entire NFL Draft landscape effectively changed.

That’s right, after months of planning, preparation, and a plethora of mock drafts that now look goofily irrelevant, the 2021 NFL Draft as we knew it has officially changed, as the San Francisco 49ers have effectively cashed in their short-term first-round drafting future – through 2023 – to move up from 12 to three and presumably take their next great homegrown franchise quarterback.

Now for fans of the Philadelphia Eagles, this was the best possible news. While many assumed as many as three quarterbacks could go in the first four picks, now that number was a borderline guarantee, with a fourth very well still in play if the Atlanta Falcons opt to still take one of the remaining signal callers if a player they like is still on the board at four.

Life was good. Even if either the Falcons or the Cincinnati Bengals opted to shake things up and select either Kyle Pitts or Ja’Marr Chase directly before the Eagles went on the clock, the team would surely have one or the other to pick from come the sixth overall selection, with presumed franchise left tackle Penei Sewell waiting in the wings as a 6-foot-6, 330-pound backup plan.

And then, literal moments later, everything changes yet again.

You see, after trading down from three to 12, the Dolphins’ brass started sniffing around for ways to get back into the top-10 and agreed to trade the 12th overall pick plus a fourth-round pick in 2021 and their own first-round pick in 2022 to the Eagles for the sixth overall pick, and a 2021 fifth-round pick.

Remember those mock drafts I referenced earlier? Well, you can pretty much throw them all in the trash now, as almost none of them had such a crazy, three-team deal predicted.

Assuming you were all-in on landing a receiving target like Pitts or Chase, things suddenly went from being surprisingly encouraging to anything but, as both players will all but surely be gone by the time the Detroit Lions go on the clock at seven, let alone when the Eagles finally get to make a pick five spots later.

If that’s how you feel, that Howie Roseman punted on a chance to select a franchise player to accumulate more picks that he’ll surely mess up down the line, then you have every reason to be upset by the move, but just because Pitts and Chase will surely be gone by the time the Eagles go on the clock doesn’t mean they couldn’t still walk away from the weekend with a number one receiver drafted in the first round.

Depending on how things break, the Philadelphia Eagles could still land a WR1.

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As things presently stand, there will be 11 teams that make their selections before the Philadephia Eagles in the 2021 NFL Draft (duh). Of those teams, at least three are going to take quarterbacks, with as many as five total coming off the board by the 12th overall selection.

With four receivers many consider legit number ones expected to go in the top-15 – Kyle Pitts, Ja’Marr Chase, Devonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle – every team who opts to draft a quarterback in the top-11 leaves one more skill position player to be had for a team like the Eagles.

So, assuming four quarterbacks go off the board in the top-six and both Pitts and Chase are also selected in that range, that leaves just five teams sitting between the Eagles and a wide receiver, assuming they still would like to land a number one receiver to pair up with Jalen Hurts over a future number one cornerback like my personal favorite player in the draft, Jaycee Horn.

Okay, so just statistically speaking, that leaves the Eagles with a 36.5 percent chance that one of the two wide receivers will still be on the board at 12 overall and a smaller but still viable 6.25 percentage chance that both receivers are still on the board, assuming every team has an equal probability of selecting a wide receiver.

Only here’s the thing; that isn’t the case.

Of the five teams who pick before the Philadelphia Eagles in 2021, two – the Denver Broncos and the Dallas Cowboys – just drafted wide receivers in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, and two more – the Carolina Panthers and the New York Giants – just signed big-money wide receivers to long-term contracts in the last two free agency periods.

So, assuming those four teams are less likely to address the wide receiver positions with more valuable players at positions of greater need still on the board, that leaves only one team, the Detroit Lions, who are likely to draft a wide receiver with their top-10 pick; as evidenced by both Lance Zierlein and Bucky Brooks mocking Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle to the team in their most recent pre-Mia/PHI/SF trade mock draft.

Fun fact: Neither Zierlein nor Brooks has a fourth wide receiver/tight end going before the 13th overall pick in their mock drafts, so hey, that’s something.

Would landing either Smith or Waddle be the ideal outcome for Philly fans who were all in on Pitts or Chase as recently as yesterday? No, I’d venture to say it isn’t, but landing a receiver with a pre-existing relationship with Hurts in addition to a “free” 2022 first-round pick surely isn’t the “doomsday scenario” that many a fan initially painted it out to be when news broke on an unsuspecting Friday afternoon.

With holes all over their lineup and a roster that isn’t getting any younger, the Philadelphia Eagles can’t afford to be too choosey in the 2021 NFL Draft when it comes to player selection. While some will die on a hill that one receiver above all others is the guy who will revolutionize the league and become the next Julio Jones, Howie Roseman and company are clearly prioritizing quantity over quality when it comes to draft capital even if it sacrifices their optionality. Is that the right call? Eh, only time will tell, but I certainly won’t complain if the Eagles still leave the first round with Jaylen Waddle, as he could be a perfect flanker paired up with Jalen Reagor and Travis Fulgham a la T.Y. Hilton.