Philadelphia Phillies: Don’t worry about Aaron Nola’s spring struggles…yet

Spring Training stats don’t matter, everybody knows that. A team could literally go undefeated in the Grapefruit League or the Cactus League, and then come out and lose their first ten regular season games. When it comes to the Philadelphia Phillies, their month-long set of games that are played down in Clearwater are viewed as a time for major and minor league players alike to work on aspects of their game, and to develop.

With that said, it’s still not ideal watching one’s “Ace” get absolutely clobbered all spring long.

Aaron Nola, the Phillies number one starting pitcher, has made three starts down in Florida, pitching a total of 8.2 innings. To put things quite bluntly, they have not been good outings. The veteran right-hander has allowed 15 hits and 10 runs, and opposing batters are hitting .395 off of him. Nola has recorded just five strikeouts compared to three walks, with his WHIP is sat above a 2.00 at the moment.

Now for what it’s worth, Nola has historically struggled during Spring Training, and he hasn’t been shy about the fact that he’s really been working on his changeup this year. That would specifically explain Tuesday’s outing against the Blue Jays, where Nola was yanked, put back in the game, and then yanked once more. It was clear that Nola wasn’t really looking to utilize his fastball and his deadly curve a whole lot, instead trying to record outs with his change.

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Ultimately speaking, there’s little reason to “worry’ about Nola at this point in time. He’s coming off a solid 2020 campaign, and the work he’s putting in to develop his changeup should definitely be viewed as a net positive.

However, the Philadelphia Phillies regular season schedule this year is not a friendly one when it comes to Nola potentially starting off slow. The Phils have four straight series against NL East rivals, with it going Braves, Mets, Braves, Mets. Even after that, the Phillies then have to take on the St. Louis Cardinals and their newly acquired superstar third baseman (Nolan Arenado).

Whether the Phillies like it or not, there will be no time for them to “find their groove” this season. The team has to come out of the gate firing, especially when you consider how important interdivisional games are going to be this year. The expanded playoffs are gone, which means the Phillies have to perform well against the Braves, Mets, and Nationals if they want to see October baseball in 2021.

While Nola’s Spring Training struggles shouldn’t necessarily be viewed as a “red flag” per se, his historical struggles in the months of March and April should be. His career ERA spikes up to 3.93 during these early stages of spring, compared to 2.67 the following month in May.

The Philadelphia Phillies can’t afford a slow-starting Aaron Nola.

If the Phillies want any real shot at competing in the year’s stacked NL East, Nola will have to show up ready to dominate games, which isn’t something he has proven prone to do.

HIs poor outings down in Clearwater likely mean nothing, but ideally speaking, Joe Girardi and the Phillies would prefer to see their “Ace” start locking in over the next couple of days. They’ll undoubtedly need him to be at his best when it comes to the first 4-5 series of the regular season.