Spencer Howard can be the Philadelphia Phillies “Bullpen Ace” in 2021

Based on the first week of Spring Training, and how the Philadelphia Phillies roster is overall constructed, it doesn’t look like Spencer Howard is going to start the 2021 season off in the rotation.

And that’s okay!

People immediately view the idea of Howard being a “reliever” this season as a major failure. After all, he’s the most hyped up pitching prospect the team has had since Cole Hamels. While an initial reaction of negativity is understandable, the reality of the situation is that Howard being used as a hyper-advanced reliever in 2021 is best for the Phillies, and best for Howard in the longterm.

As fantastic as Howard looked during his minor league days, he failed to ever pitch 200 innings in a single season. This isn’t entirely his fault, as injuries and shoulder soreness routinely plagued the young right-hander. Even when Howard debuted at the major league level last season, it was clear that he was still getting used to the stamina and strength that’s required of MLB starters. He’d start off the game hitting 97 and 98 MPH on the radar gun with his fastball, and then slip back down to the 94-95 range by the third/fourth inning.

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That’s not unheard of for guys making their MLB debuts. In fact, it’s pretty common for rookie pitchers to take a season or two to fully get accustomed to the major league style of play.

Despite his stamina issues last year, the Philadelphia Phillies entered the offseason with him penciled in as their #4 starter. However, once Dave Dombrowski accepted the team’s president job, that quickly changed. Dombrowski added Matt Moore and Chase Anderson for a combined $7 million, both of whom have impressed in Spring Training thus far.

With the Phillies rotation now seemingly set from 1-5 (Nola, Wheeler, Eflin, Anderson, Moore), that begs the question: what happens to Spencer Howard?

The answer? Use him in the bullpen – and let him dominate that role for a season.

It’s a fairly small sample size, but Howard was noticeably a better pitcher in innings 1-3 last year as opposed to innings 4-6. His ERA in the first three innings of ballgames was a 3.50, and his ERA in the latter three was a 12.79. Again – a super small sample, but a notable difference nevertheless.

Howard’s strikeout rate, opponent batting average, opponent OPS, and opponent batting average on balls in play were all significantly better in innings 1-3 compared to innings 4-6 as well.

If you take this analyzation one step further, Howard was borderline elite when facing batters the first time through the order. When looking at this specific split, Howard’s allowed batting average was just .184, and his K/BB rate was an eye-popping 3.40.

Combine all that data together, and it’s not hard to paint the picture of Howard being an absolutely stunning reliever in 2021.

The Philadelphia Phillies have themselves a “Bullpen Ace” in Spencer Howard.

Howard spending the year in the bullpen doesn’t ruin his future as a top-end starter either. He’s still just 24 years of age, and the Philadelphia Phillies will likely need him in the rotation next season once Moore’s and Anderson’s contracts expire. If anything, a year of reduced workload in the ‘pen will probably do wonders for Howard’s overall stamina and strength – the two things he struggled with in 2020.

The Phillies biggest weakness last year was their bullpen, I don’t think I need to hammer that point home anymore. By running their top pitching prospect as a reliever in 2021, they not only continue to further his development, but they also fix their most glaring issue. A “win-win” situation if I’ve ever seen one.