Who should the Philadelphia Phillies fifth starter end up being?

Heading into this year’s Spring Training, it looks like the Philadelphia Phillies have established the first four spots in their rotation. Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Zach Eflin predictably make up the trio at the top, and then Chase Anderson appears to have an upper hand when it comes to that #4 gig.

While Anderson could very well fall out of favor during camp (he did have a rough 2020 after all), his strong track record from 2014-2019 combined with his $4 million salary paint the picture of someone who was brought in to be an established arm in the rotation. Anderson spoke candidly about his belief that he can throw “150 or more innings” in 2021, which of course wouldn’t be obtainable if he were to be used in a bullpen/spot starter role.

Assuming Nola-Wheeler-Eflin-Anderson is the way the Phillies have their rotation lined up at the moment, that leaves one final spot up for grabs, with a whole lot of individuals competing for it.

The Philadelphia Phillies signed veteran left-hander Matt Moore to a one-year contract worth $3 million this offseason, they brought back Vince Velasquez on $4 million, and of course there’s still Spencer Howard, the team’s top-rated pitching prospect last season.

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While Joe Girardi and the Phillies could experiment with a six-man rotation of sorts, or even just rotating the fifth starter on a regular basis, it seems far more likely that someone will emerge as the solidified #5 after a few weeks of Spring Training.

Like all things, there’s pros and cons to each available option.

Starting first with Moore, the most attractive asset he brings to the table is that he is left-handed. The Phillies haven’t had a reliable lefty in their rotation since way back during the Cole Hamels days, and the NL East is home to two lefty MVP candidates (Freddie Freeman, Juan Soto). Having that change of pace at the back of the rotation would definitely be a weapon.

The issue with Moore is of course his track record. He posted a 5.52 ERA in 2017, a 6.79 ERA in 2018, and then barely pitched in 2019. He had a strong campaign overseas in Japan this past year, but it’s hard to compare that to the quality of the MLB.

Moore was a very good MLB pitcher from 2011 to 2016, but it’s been some time since those days. The veteran lefty likely only gets the rotation nod if he’s able to return to that pre-2017 form this spring.

Moving on to Velasquez, Joe Girardi does appear to be relatively high on the right-hander. Despite his abysmal track record and poor 2020 season, the Phillies seemed content with forking over $4 million to retain his services this offseason. I personally find it hard to believe that he’ll be considered for a spot in the rotation this spring (he should be in the bullpen), but his above average salary could dictate otherwise.

Last but most definitely not least, Spencer Howard presents the greatest amount of upside as a back-of-the-rotation starter. Sure, he wasn’t great in 2020 (5.92 ERA), but he was a true rookie debuting during a pretty wonky season of baseball. Throw in the injury issues that he was dealing with, and you can definitely excuse his lack of success last year.

The Philadelphia Phillies will need to land on an established fifth starter.

Howard’s ceiling is still unbelievably high, and once he gets healthy and settled into major league ball, there’s a good chance he’ll pass Eflin as the Philadelphia Phillies #3 arm. However, managing his shoulder injury will likely be priority number one this year. Barring any sort of miraculous progress this spring, Howard will presumably start off the season either in the bullpen or down in AAA.

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Ultimately speaking, the Phillies will still have to make a decision when it comes to finalizing their starting rotation. Matt Moore appears to have the upper hand at the moment, but Velasquez or a healthy Spencer Howard could definitely push him for the job.

I also wouldn’t rule out a midseason trade addition should none of the above mentioned names work out as a reliable fifth starter.

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