Philadelphia Phillies: Realistic expectations for Alec Bohm in 2021

It is no secret that Alec Bohm exploded onto the scene for the Philadelphia Phillies during the COVID-19 shortened 2020 MLB season. While he was meant to have an impact considering he was the third overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, to say he would have been as good as he was in 2020 probably would have gotten some eyes rolled in your direction.

Sure his defense is still a work in progress, but there is absolutely no question that this kid can absolutely rake. His slash line of .338/.400/.881 certainly jumps off the page, and throw that in with his four home runs, 23 runs batted in, and 11 doubles probably should have been enough to win the National League Rookie of the Year. Unfortunately, he did end up finishing second in this award race to a RELIEF PITCHER, which is ridiculous in its own right, but I digress.

As we pivot our attention ahead to the 2021 season, there is an abundance of excitement surrounding the young third basemen, as there should be. Coming off that fantastic rookie year (albeit a smaller sample size), Bohm has proven he can not only play in the big leagues, but he can excel. In a lineup that is set to include Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, J.T Realmuto, and Didi Gregorious, Bohm will have plenty of chances to drive in runs and be relied upon as a key offensive piece.

While it is unclear how many games will be played during the 2021 season, we will assume a full 162 schedule will be played for this exercise. Do I expect Bohm to hit .338 over a full 162 game season? I would say that is unlikely. This is not an indictment on Bohm’s offensive talent at all, but to do this over a full MLB schedule is incredibly difficult and not something we see very often in the era of the three true outcomes (walk, strikeout, home run).

Where I believe it is far more realistic to expect the young sluggers batting average to sit is right around that .300 line, which is no small feat in itself. As previously stated, guys just don’t hit for that high of an average much anymore; but the Phillies seem to have struck gold with their selection of Bohm.

Can Alec Bohm build on his rookie season with the Philadelphia Phillies?

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The thing that was a bit surprising when looking back on the rookie season of Bohm is the fact that he only slugged four home runs. This probably has more to do with the fact that he is more of a line-drive hitter, which would explain his high batting average, but this is something one would expect to increase as he gets more comfortable at the plate. Considering he stands at 6-foot-5 and weighs in around 220 pounds, and plays half of his home games in the hitter’s paradise that is Citizens Bank Park, more balls are going to fly over the wall off the bat of Alec Bohm.

We have also already touched on the offensive talent that surrounds Bohm in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup. This is a team that scored a boatload of runs in 2020, and this is something that is expected again in 2021. With guys like Harper, Hoskins, and Andrew McCutchen who all walk a ton, Bohm will have plenty of opportunities with guys in front of him and will have the chance to drive in a ton of runs. It is not out of the question to say 100 runs batted in is reachable for Bohm over a full season.

So, where does that leave us as we head into the 2021 Phillies season? We have touched on his high batting average ability, his ability to drive the baseball, and the supporting cast around him. I believe a realistic stat line for Bohm heading into this season looks something like this:

.300/.425/.880
27 Home Runs
105 Runs Batted In
40 Doubles

Am I being too generous to a guy who has only played 44 career games in the Major Leagues? Possibly. However, if you watched a ton of Phillies baseball last year, the eye test tells you just how special of an offensive talent this guy is. We could be looking at one of the next great homegrown Philadelphia Phillies blossoming right before our eyes.

dark. Next. Philadelphia Phillies still looking to add more pitching depth?

Strap up; this season is going to be fun.

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