Veteran pitcher emerging as a surprise Philadelphia Phillies target?

Philadelphia Phillies targeting Anibal Sanchez?

While everyone in Philadelphia is up in a frenzy regarding the Doug Pederson news (more on that here), another team in the city has quietly started making some waves in free agency. According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the Philadelphia Phillies have begun to show some interest in veteran starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez.

The Phillies’ interest in Sanchez primarily stems from his past connection to both Dave Dombrowski and Joe Girardi. Sanchez made his major league debut for Girardi’s Florida Marlins way back in 2006, and then later won the league’s ERA title in 2013 playing for Dombrowski’s Detroit Tigers. In an offseason that’s all sorts of messed up due to COVID-19 restrictions and an overall lack of communication, past relationships between front offices/coaching staffs and free agents is proving to be more important than ever before.

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Outside of the Phillies’ past connections to Sanchez, there’s an obvious need when it comes to starting pitching depth moving into 2021. The team has a solid group of four at the top of their rotation with Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Zach Eflin, and Spencer Howard, but are seriously lacking when it comes to that fifth starter spot. They re-signed Vince Velasquez as an option, but he’s coming off a disastrous 2020 season where he posted a a career worst 5.56 ERA.

When it comes to Anibal Sanchez, his 2020 campaign wasn’t much better. He posted a 6.62 ERA across 11 starts, and allowed a league-leading 39 earned runs. However, there appears to be some level of internal belief that he can “bounce back” in 2021 and return to his previous 2019 perform. Sanchez was solid for the Nationals that year, posting a 3.85 ERA as he helped guide the team to a World Series win.

While the base stats may show Sanchez as someone who is due for a better season in 2021, some of the more analytically driven stats show a different story. Sanchez’ xFIP (expected fielder independent pitching) was about the same in 2020 (5.30) as it was in 2019 (5.10), which tells the tale of a pitcher who has been on the path towards regression for two full seasons now. The main reason Sanchez was more productive in 2019 was due to him having a strong defense behind him (Anthony Rendon for example), something the Phillies don’t possess at the moment.

Sanchez’ SIERA (skill interactive earned run average) was also worse in 2019 (5.07) than it was in 2020 (5.03), and his fastball velocity dipped below 90 MPH for the first time in his career this past season.

Throw in the fact that Sanchez turns 37 years old in February, and it’s really hard to imagine a scenario where he enters his 16th season as a solid rotational arm. This would force the Philadelphia Phillies to hand things back over to “Vinny Velo” as their #5 starter, a scenario that would likely see the team miss the playoffs for the tenth year in a row.

Personally speaking, throwing money at someone like Sanchez seems like a poor allocation of resources. The team desperately needs starting pitching depth, don’t get me wrong, but Sanchez is just one of those guys who seems better suited for retirement (or maybe even a minor league deal?). Morosi did mention that the Phils are considering multiple options at the moment, so there’s still a decent chance that a better candidate emerges in the near future.