Philadelphia Phillies: Former GM expecting big free agent splurge

Are the Philadelphia Phillies really going to spend big?

Analysts and experts across baseball are not expecting the Philadelphia Phillies to spend “stupid money” this year. It’s something ownership has been vocal about and new President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski has said there isn’t an unlimited payroll this season.

Still, former Nationals General Manager and national writer for The Atheltic Jim Bowden has the Phillies going all-in in his latest offseason “best fits.”

Bowden’s projections (available for subscribers of The Athletic) has the Phillies not only re-signing All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto, but signing former MVP candidate Marcus Semien, center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., and reliever Brad Hand.

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The Realmuto one makes a ton of sense for the Phillies considering how much they loved having him here and what they gave up to acquire him two years ago. Bowden says Realmuto isn’t getting the $200 million he wants, and that’s especially true with the Mets out of contention to sign the best catcher in baseball.

Realmuto is likely looking at a five-year deal worth around $125 million. The overall contract doesn’t surpass Buster Posey’s $159 million deal or Joe Mauer’s ridiculous $184 million contract, but the $25 million AAV (average annual value) would be the highest for a catcher.

The number of realistic suitors for Realmuto has gone down, but the Phillies are still not the front runners to re-sign him.

As for Semien, this signing would make a lot of sense and would be almost a repeat of the Didi Gregorius signing last year. After having MVP caliber seasons, both players had down years going into free agency. Gregorius went from hitting .268 in 2018 to .238 in 2019, while Semien’s went from .285 last year to .223 during the shortened 2020 season.

Semien would likely be on a one or two-year deal with the hope that Philadelphia can either develop former first-round pick Bryson Stott or get in on one of the star shortstops available next offseason (Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez).

Jackie Bradley Jr. is another player who’s been connected to the Phillies with Dombrowski’s arrival. The two were together in Boston and Dombrowski has a history of reconnecting with some of his former players.

Bradley Jr. is coming off one of the best (albeit shortened) seasons of his career with a .283 average, and would be an overall upgrade in center field. His Gold Glove-caliber defense would be just as valuable in center with an aging Andrew McCutchen in left field. I’d expect JBJ to handle balls into the left center corner where the outfield wall kicks out.

Hand is another player who makes sense coming off a league-high 16 saves for Cleveland, but he was waived and not claimed with a $10 million price tag. Rebuilding the bullpen is an obvious priority for the Phillies and Hand would be much more reliable closer compared to Hector Neris.

All of these players certainly are great fits for the Phillies, but the idea that Philadelphia is going to sign all four of them is likely out of the realm of possibility this offseason. This would be the best-case scenario if the pandemic didn’t wipe out payrolls across baseball.

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If Realmuto does get signed, I can see them signing one of the other three players, likely Hand. If Realmuto does not sign, that $25 million payroll likely pays for the other three players for one year.

Keep an eye on all four of those names, but don’t expect a free agent splurge like years past.

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