Philadelphia Phillies: What should we expect from Spencer Howard in 2021?

After a less-than-stellar 2020, what should we expect from Philadelphia Phillies RHP Spencer Howard in 2021?

Heading into the shortened 2020 season, the potential debut of Spencer Howard was one of the most exciting storylines that Philadelphia Phillies fans were following. A top 30 prospect in all of baseball according to Baseball America, some projections had Howard’s ceiling being as high as “Ace” material.

Despite his minor league success and all the lofty expectations, Howard’s debut at the major league level went less than ideal. He made just six starts, pitched 24.1 innings, and finished the year with a 5.92 ERA. He undoubtedly showed flashes of some of that oft-talked about elite potential, but it was nothing compared to teammate Alec Bohm‘s “Rookie of the Year” finalist season.

Six starts is way too early to “write off” a former top 30 prospect, but Howard’s 2020 season definitely left a little to be desired. With that in mind, what exactly does the young right-hander’s future status with the Philadelphia Phillies look like?

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Barring a sudden change of heart, the Phillies are likely expecting Howard to be a regular in their starting rotation. They’ve expressed an unwillingness to spend in free agency this winter, and it’s hard for me to imagine them signing two separate free agent starters. You would hope they’d add one arm to replace a departing Jake Arrieta, but that still leaves a spot for Howard to operate out of.

In terms of actual on-field production, the biggest concern in regards to Howard’s 2020 starts was with his velocity. He routinely touched the triple digits in the minor leagues, with his overpowering four-seam fastball being his biggest weapon. In the majors, however, Howard’s fastball velocity sat at just 94.5 mph. That’s not *bad* by any stretch of the imagination, but it wasn’t the elite velocity that Howard was advertised as having coming out of AA.

On top of that, Howard’s fastball velocity would routinely decline as the game progressed, signaling a potential conditioning issue. Even in his best start against the Nationals on August 31st, Howard’s fastball velocity dropped over 3 mph as the game progressed on into the fifth inning. That’s concerning.

Getting Howard’s fastball velocity back up into the high 90s, and at a spot where he can hold that form through 90-100 pitches, is crucial for his longterm future in the MLB.

Outside of the velocity concerns, Howard also of course missed some time due to shoulder tightness. This issue has plagued him the past, and one can only hope that it doesn’t carry over in 2021. Howard was activated later in the season, which is a good sign, but missing games at 24 years of age isn’t ideal.

Howard’s issues aside for a moment, he should expect to get full support of the Philadelphia Phillies organization this upcoming season. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t begin the year as one of their main starters, and I’d honestly be even more shocked if he doesn’t settle into some better form compared to 2020. It’s hard to project what his ERA/WHIP will look like in 2021, but the biggest developmental points reside in his fastball velocity and average length of outing.

If we start to see Howard blazing 100 mph fastballs past batters once more, while routinely going into the seventh inning of ballgames, that would be fantastic news in terms of his potential future as the Philadelphia Phillies “Ace.”