Should the Philadelphia Phillies take a shot at Chris Archer?

Is Chris Archer a risk the Philadelphia Phillies are willing to take?

While we all know that the Philadelphia Phillies won’t be spending “stupid money” anytime soon, they still need to add pieces to supplement a roster that wasn’t even good enough to finish in the top half of the league last year.

One area of concern, as always, will be the rotation. And while options are plentiful in the free agent market, two-time all-star Chris Archer could be just the shot in the arm that the Phillies need.

First, you’ve got to consider the price tag. Archer is not expected to fetch a rich or lengthy deal, not after missing the entirety of the 2020 season recovering from thoracic outlet surgery. The health issues alone should be enough to scare off a lot of teams, namely the ones who aren’t expected to compete at all, as well as the top-tier contenders who don’t necessarily need to roll the dice on a reclamation project like Archer.

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Fortunately (or perhaps not) for the Phillies, they reside in the middle ground where a shrewd move or two might be the difference in turning the team into a contender. With Archer’s services not necessarily in high demand since even a partial return to form is in doubt, the Phillies are one of the few clubs in a position to make a bold move like this.

But would it even be that bold? With MLB Trade Rumors projecting only a one-year, $4 million deal for Archer, it doesn’t really seem like it. The Phillies might have to “overpay” a bit in this case if other teams like the Cubs show interest, but even at $5 or $6 million, it would be a worthwhile gamble to bring him to Philadelphia.

Archer needs to show well on a “prove it” contract like Didi Gregorius did for the Phillies this past season. That move turned out to be a smart one, although let’s not talk about how the Phils ended up botching it anyway. When it comes to Archer, we can worry about the future when it gets here, just focusing on 2021 at this time.

Archer was underpaid for years in Tampa and is still looking for a score beyond this year. But he’ll have to use 2021 as a stepping stone to get there. If the Phillies were to sign him and see successful results, he might put himself out of the Phillies’ price range, but they will have at least benefitted from the initial move to bring him in. Plus, they can always deal him at the deadline if the writing seems to be on the wall.

There is a chance the Archer is finished as a major league pitcher or will only be able to pitch at a fraction of his former efficacy. But this is a guy who excelled for years pitching in the challenging AL East, holding his own against loaded lineups in Boston and New York. He should not be fazed by facing a lineup containing a DH if the National League opts to go that way permanently after last season’s experiment.

And if the NL (dumbly) decides to revert back to the pitcher hitting, hey, even better. Obviously this scenario didn’t help him out too much during his time in Pittsburgh, but any team signing Archer has to hope that his poor results there were more of a result of a physical malady than a straight-up loss of ability to get outs.

For the Philadelphia Phillies, there are no clear-cut solutions to the problems on this roster, and they’re basically priced out of anything close to a sure thing. That’s why it’s so important for the team to get moves like this correct. Maybe they sign Archer and it blows up in their face for any number of reasons. But perhaps he signs elsewhere and helps stabilize a middling team’s rotation enough to vault them into a higher tier. There’s risk on both sides of the coin.

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I’d hate to treat a guy’s career and livelihood like a bunch of pork bellies being traded on the stock market, but the Phillies have a nice opportunity to buy low here and either ride it out for a profit or sell at the deadline for future assets. Everyone else has the same ability to do this, of course, but it’s a matter of how much risk/reward you can stomach. In the case of Chris Archer, the Phillies could come to the conclusion that it would be money well spent. For once.

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