Philadelphia Phillies: Rays’ Blake Snell blunder is a learning experience

The Philadelphia Phillies would be wise to learn from Tampa Bay’s mistake.

The 2020 World Series consisted of two of the most analytically savvy teams in all of baseball. The Los Angeles Dodgers have built themselves a team loaded with superstar talent by way of elite scouting and drafting, and the Rays have gone full-on “Moneyball” in recent years, relying almost exclusively on analytics to construct a cost efficient starting lineup. As much as we all want the Philadelphia Phillies to perform like either one of these two teams, the Phils would be wise to learn from Tampa’s flaws this offseason.

While the Dodgers seemingly leave their analytic usage to the front office, and allow manager Dave Martinez to make standard in-game decisions, the Rays embodied a different tactic. Every single move they made was essentially predetermined via an algorithm, all the way down to how many pitches each specific arm would throw in a given setting.

It obviously helped them experience some outstanding success this season, but it ruffled some feathers along the way. Despite possessing an elite starting rotation, manager Kevin Cash rarely allowed his starters to go beyond five innings of work, turning to the bullpen as often as he could.

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This style of managing helped them capture the American League crown, but ultimately, it was also their downfall.

In Game 6 of the World Series, Blake Snell was pitching an absolute gem for the Rays. It was the best his stuff has looked since his iconic Cy Young season of 2018, and the Dodgers hitters were completely fooled. Through 5.1 innings, Snell had struck out nine and allowed just one hit.

Snell allowed his second hit of the night to catcher Ashley Barnes, a softly struck ball to center field. Even with the top of the order up next, Snell was simply cruising. He had thrown just 73 total pitches, and had dominated the likes of Mookie Betts and Corey Seager. He was poised to give Tampa Bay another 1-2 innings of scoreless work.

Nevertheless, Kevin Cash had a script, and he was sticking to it. The polarizing Rays manager immediately yanked Snell following the base hit, despite Snell’s obvious frustrations. Social media exploded in outrage, with both current and former MLB players alike expressing their distaste in the move. The pitching change backfired immediately, as reliever Nick Anderson came in and allowed two quick runs, ultimately earning the Game 6 loss.

The Philadelphia Phillies need to get more analytically sound, that’s not up for debate. The Rays, Dodgers, Astros, and Red Sox are all teams that bought hard into analytic usage over the last couple of seasons, and the results speak for themselves.

However, there is a point of diminishing returns. It’s hard to argue with the Rays success this past season, but their over-reliance on the numbers is what ultimately cost them the World Series.

Was their wonky pitching setup the reason they made it to the World Series in the first place? I’m not so sure. Their scouting/analytic department does a great job identifying affordable talent, and that’s in all honestly the main reason they are/were a good baseball team. It’s not like Randy Arozarena benefits from Blake Snell pitching 5.0 innings as opposed to 6.0.

The Philadelphia Phillies need to learn from a team like Tampa, but they also need to keep in mind why they hired someone like Joe Girardi. They have a fantastic “feel” manager in their clubhouse, allowing him to manage games the way he sees fit needs to remain a priority, even for a team that is expected to undergo serious overhaul over the nest 1-2 years.

I’m all for the Philadelphia Phillies hiring some bright executive from Tampa Bay’s front office (like Erik Neander for example), but let’s keep the analytics in the front office for the most part, as opposed to on the baseball diamond.