Philadelphia Phillies: Is JT Realmuto actually worth record money?

How much is soon-to-be former Philadelphia Phillies catcher JT Realmuto worth on the open market?

The unquestioned “best catcher in baseball” is set to hit the open market as a free agent this upcoming winter, and he has some record breaking money in his sights. JT Realmuto and his camp have already thrown out $200 million as a potential target number, which would make him the highest paid catcher in MLB history by a considerable margin. As much as Philadelphia Phillies fans love the ex-Marlin backstop, one has to ask the question: is Realmuto actually worth that type of cash?

Before we dive too deep into the financial implications and historical context surrounding Realmuto and his looming free agency, we need to all collectively agree upon the idea that Realmuto is genuinely an irreplaceable player. He is the best offensive catcher in baseball, and he’s the best defensive catcher in baseball. He’s arguably been the Phillies most valuable all-around player the last two seasons, and the off-the-field connection that he’s developed with Bryce Harper is a special one.

When it comes to catchers, they are usually a liability on either offense or defense (normally offense). Realmuto on the other hand is a unicorn, he can do it all.

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Only two catchers in MLB history have surpassed the $100 million mark, with Buster Posey getting eight-years/$159 million, and Joe Mauer getting eight-years/$184 million.

As previously mentioned, Realmuto will absolutely be getting triple digits on the open market this winter. The question is, will he find a way to surpass that illustrious Bauer number?

Realmuto and his camp have thrown around that $200 million mark, but personally, I don’t think he touches that number. It’s not uncommon for players to set their standard incredibly high right as they enter the open market, for example there was talk of Bryce Harper getting $500 million on the open market prior to his $330 million deal.

With that said, I still believe Realmuto sets a new record when it comes to the catcher market, but not in terms of total money. At 30 years of age, he won’t be getting eight years like Mauer and Bosey got, but he should find himself shattering the previously set AAV mark. Mauer got 23 million per season on his deal, and Realmuto should at minimum crush that.

Getting anywhere from $25 million per season to $35 million per season seems just about right, which would set a hypothetical contract at five-years/$150ish million. With revenue crashing down to COVID-19, that seems like a fairly reasonable mark that most teams won’t want to top. Teams like the Mets and the Yankees are definitely wild cards when it comes to this year’s free agency class, but that doesn’t mean they’ll overpay just for fun.

At the $150 million range, that would be pretty darn good value for the Philadelphia Phillies in my opinion. Considering Buster Posy got $159, Realmuto likely tops that though and sits around $160-175 million. It’s a lot of money, but Realmuto once again is still the “best catcher in baseball”.

As you creep up towards that $184 million Mauer record, and potentially even towards that $200 million number, the value starts to be lost a little bit. Realmuto has been a crucial piece to the Phillies offense the last 200+ games, but the team obviously has other holes that need to be filled as well.

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Final take? Anything under $175 million is likely worth buying into. $30-35 million per year is totally something you can structure into a yearly payroll. If Realmuto is insistent on breaking that Mauer record by signing with a rich New York team, the Phils will most likely have to turn their attention elsewhere (Trevor Bauer? George Springer?)

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