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Philadelphia Phillies: A deep dive into Aaron Nola’s September struggles

By David Esser

Sep 17, 2020; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) gets a new baseball after allowing a home run to New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) (not pictured) during the sixth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 17, 2020; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) gets a new baseball after allowing a home run to New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) (not pictured) during the sixth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports /
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Why does Philadelphia Phillies RHP Aaron Nola struggle in September?

For the third season in a row the Philadelphia Phillies found themselves entering the month of September with solid odds to make the postseason, and for the third season in a row they were unable to lean on their ace Aaron Nola to help get the job done. His most recent late-season collapse came in the final game of the 2020 regular season, where the righty allowed three runs through just 3.2 innings.

The Phillies inability to see October baseball the last three years is undoubtedly not on Nola’s shoulders, as for the most part he’s been a very, very good regular season pitcher. However, his end of the year collapses have come all too familiar to fans as of late, and it’s concerning. A team is supposed to be able to lean on their ace when the pressure is at its highest, and the Phillies have been unable to do that with Nola quite yet.

Nola was quite possibly having the best statistical season of his career this year, and yet still faltered when the month of September rolled around. With that in mind, I did some digging on what could be responsible for the routine falters.

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For starters, this isn’t a small sample size. Nola has made 139 total starts in his career thus far, and the statistics quite overwhelmingly support the theory that September is a bad month for him. His average ERA jumps from 3.47 to 4.28, and his average WHIP jumps from 1.164 to 1.307.

When compared to his other monthly splits, the month of September is the worst for Nola in terms of hits allowed, walks allowed, total bases allowed, opponent slugging %, and opponent OPS. Almost 850 innings into Nola’s career and it’s pretty clear that September just ain’t a good time for the Louisiana born right-hander.

One of the most common theories thrown out there is that Nola struggles in cold weather, which on the surface, appears to check out. His numbers in March and April aren’t always the prettiest, and he seems to get better as the heat rises.

HOWEVER, what really caught me by surprise is that June is actually Nola’s worst statistical month in terms of ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average. Yes, even worse than his ever talked about September woes.

Nola’s June struggles aren’t ever really talked about, most likely due to the fact that he ends being borderline un-hittable during the months of July and August. Any sort of mishaps earlier in the summer are quickly forgotten when he turns it up to a different level for the heart of the season.

With the weather theory somewhat debunked, I thought maybe it had to do with overall fatigue. However that idea was pretty much crushed during this year’s season, as he made just six starts before September rolled around.

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