Philadelphia Phillies: Arrieta’s poor game highlights need for a third starter

The Philadelphia Phillies need a reliable #3 in their rotation.

Coming into the 2020 MLB season, there were three guarantees when it came to the Philadelphia Phillies rotation: Aaron Nola would be great, Zack Wheeler would be solid, and everyone would continue to overrate Zach Eflin and Jake Arrieta.

It’s a tired routine at this point in time, but one that seems to plague the Phillies nevertheless. With expectations high during Joe Girardi‘s debut season, the Phillies were once again expecting some sort of “breakout season” from the likes of Eflin and/or Arrieta. Having that solid “third starter” in your rotation is almost a necessity in today’s game.

Arrieta and Eflin have a combined ERA of 5.03 to kick off the year, and their last four games have been particularly bad. Arrieta lasted fewer than five innings in both of his starts against the Orioles and the Red Sox, and Eflin allowed a total of eight runs through just ten innings of work during his last two starts.

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For what it’s worth, having a back-end starter whose ERA sits in the mid-high 4.00s isn’t the worst thing in the world. Teams rarely have four truly trustworthy pitchers in their rotation, so expecting too much out of a team’s #4/ #5 starters is unreasonable.

However, the problem is that Eflin and Arrieta aren’t necessarily viewed as back-end starters currently. Both were foolishly projected to take a leap forward this season (Eflin especially), and instead, both have fallen back into their old ways of mediocrity. Plenty of fans were citing one of the two as the team’s “third reliable starter” heading into 2020.

During the Phillies loss to Boston on Wednesday, Arrieta was charged with four earned runs and allowed eight total baserunners. While you can definitely fault the high-powered Phillies offense for sputtering out just three runs of support, Arrieta barely lasting through 4.1 innings set the team up for an afternoon of failure.

Not only did the former Cy Young winner spot the Red Sox an early 4-2 lead, but his premature departure forced Girardi to turn to his depleted bullpen earlier than he would have preferred. The ‘pen was already gassed from their heavy work load during Eflin’s most recent start, and this forced rookie Ramon Rosso to get 2.0 innings of work in which he allowed an additional two runs to score.

The Phillies may have their lockdown third starter in rookie Spencer Howard, but it’s unclear what his impact will be for the rest of 2020. I am more than confident in his projection going forward as a potential ace, but that might not take place until a few years down the road. Relying on a rookie pitcher to win you multiple games is normally a recipe for disaster.

Ultimately, a team’s starting pitcher #3 is normally tasked with starting a playoff game at some point in time. Should the Philadelphia Phillies make it that far this year, trotting out Eflin or Arrieta is essentially conceding a game in the series. Whether it’s via a trade or hoping Howard progresses at lightning fast speed, the Phillies need to find a better third option in their rotation moving forward.