Philadelphia Phillies: Hector Neris needs to have a big year

WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 24: Hector Neris #50 of the Philadelphia Phillies pitches during game two of a doubleheader baseball game against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on September 24, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 24: Hector Neris #50 of the Philadelphia Phillies pitches during game two of a doubleheader baseball game against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on September 24, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) /
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The Philadelphia Phillies need a big year from their closer in 2020.

On face value, Philadelphia Phillies closer Hector Neris had a fairly above average year in 2019. He recorded a 2.93 ERA, 1.020 WHIP, finished 49 games for the Phillies, and recorded a team-high 29 saves. Considering he posted career lows in both ERA and WHIP, while simultaneously surpassing his previous career high in saves by two, one could even argue that he was borderline elite last season.

However, when you start to dig a little bit deeper into his stats last year, a different story starts to emerge.

In “non-save situations” last season, Neris was absolutely dominant. He recorded an ERA in the low 2.00’s across 29.2 total innings. However, when it came to “save situations”, Neris saw his ERA skyrocket up to a 3.55. A concerning disparity considering Neris’ primary job as a closer is to come in and finish games during save situations.

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On top of that, Neris saw a serious drop in production when facing talented teams in 2019. He struggled mightily against two direct division rivals in the NL East, posting a 4.50 ERA against the Mets and a 5.14 ERA against the Braves. Neris also recorded an astounding 27.00 ERA across three separate appearances versus the LA Dodgers.

Overall, Neris recorded a 4.38 ERA against teams who finished above .500 in 2019, and a 0.94 ERA against teams who finished below .500. I feel like you get my point.

Neris is a talented reliever, don’t get me wrong. When his sinker is on, it’s genuinely one of the hardest pitches to hit across the entire MLB. Where Neris starts to run into problems is when it comes to the traditional “closer” role. Closing pitchers in the MLB are known for their icy cool approach to the game, never wavering under the immense pressure. Think of guys like “Lights Out Lidge” and “Mariano ‘The Sandman’ Rivera”.

The Phillies closer on the other hand has been nicknamed “Nervous Neris” by Philadelphia Phillies fans.

If it was up to me, I would utilize Neris in a 7th/8th inning role, taking off some of that pressure that seemingly bothered him last year. However, the Phillies really don’t have anyone else to turn to when it comes to closing games in 2020. Seranthony Dominguez has yet to get Tommy John surgery and David Robertson is still recovering from his.

The Philadelphia Phillies didn’t do a lot to address their shaky bullpen this offseason, watching respected relievers like Will Harris and Dellin Betances go to division rivals. Instead, they’ll rely on a combination of aging veterans and unproven youngsters to deliver out of the ‘pen.

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This is where Neris truly has to be special in 2020. With so many question marks surrounding the Phillies’ bullpen this year, the veteran closer can’t be one of them. He needs to be a security blanket in the ninth inning, someone Joe Girardi can rely on to get crucial outs down the stretch. If he can consistently do that, the Phillies could finally be looking at some postseason play. If he can’t, it may be a quick few weeks of baseball for Philly.