Phillies: Casey Martin is a textbook boom or bust big league bat

In the third round, the Philadelphia Phillies went all-in on a boom-or-bust bat.

After making a, shall we say, optimistically lauded pick in the first round with their selection of 18-year-old Oregonian RHP Mick Abel, fans of the Philadelphia Phillies had to wait until pick 85 to watch their favorite team make their second selection, and believe you me, it was worth the wait.

Ranked the 30th overall prospect in the draft by MLB.com – a fact the Phillies’ social media team lauded in the pick’s announcement- there’s a lot to like about potential shortstop of the future, Casey Martin. Measuring in at 5-foot-11, 175 pounds, Martin played the better part of three seasons at the University of Arkansas, where he consistently ranked at or near the top of the Razorbacks’ roster in hits, home runs, and RBIs.

Factor in a solid dose of top-tier athletic ability and it’s beyond understandable why the Phillies have reportedly been interested in Martin since high school and hope to incorporate him into the organization’s minor league system in whatever capacity is available this summer.

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But here’s the thing: Martin isn’t a sure thing prospect.

I know, shocking, right? While Hall of Famers have been found in the third round of the MLB draft plenty of times over the years, generally speaking, teams aren’t going to let a genuine difference-maker sit that long to invest in, say, the 10th best high school pitcher on the board. Plenty of teams surely had issues with Martin as a player that slid him down draft boards or at least gave teams pause when compared to similarly valued players.

And to be honest, that thinking is rather justified.

Since bursting onto the national stage in 2018 as a pivotal cog in the Razorbacks’ championship-contending team, Martin’s numbers have steadily declined with more opportunities at the plate. Sure, he still got a ton of hits and maintained a near-identical .55 slugging percentage from his freshman to sophomore year, but his strikeout percentage has steadily risen with each passing season, while his batting average has slid from a really good .345 down to a decidedly less good .271 over 2020’s abbreviated 15 game season.

Martin has also somehow failed to utilize his athletic abilities to make much of an impact on the game as a base stealer, topping out at 10 in 2019 on 283 at-bats.

No hate at all towards Martin, personally I think we could see him in the major leagues sooner than later – maybe even this fall depending on how the league handles September call ups – but even if he was the steal of the draft, that doesn’t mean he’s the next Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, or even Scott Kingery.

Conceivably, Casey Martin is toolsy enough to become an MLB-level infielder for a team like the Philadelphia Phillies. Maybe not an All-Star caliber player, or even the best player on the diamond, but even landing a solid starter with a third-round pick after an abbreviated college season is fantastic value. Just don’t expect Martin to step in and become an immediate contributor right away or even soon because he won’t – at least not yet.