How the Philadelphia Eagles used game theory to stock up at strong safety

The Philadelphia Eagles’ game theory at strong safety.

In the NFL, there’s no position more schematically diverse than strong safety.

For Cover 2 teams, the position is effectively interchangeable with free safety, while other systems, like Pete Carroll’s much-imitated scheme, utilize quasi-linebackers like Kam Chancler and Keanu Neal in the role, and others still task their strong safeties with playing more like slot cornerbacks in the slot, matching up with wide receiver on one play, and running backs on the next.

Sure, there are a ton of different styles of wide receiver in the NFL like DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, and Jordan Matthews but they all fall somewhere on the same spectrum of being a pass catcher, even if the routes they run best differ. Seldom are you going to see a wide receiver block in-line like a tight end, or lead block for a running back like a fullback.

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In some schemes, strong safeties are near-exclusively zone coverage defenders, while others man theirs up, and others still even deploy the position as a run stuffer. Because of this variability, premier players of each style can be compensated very handsomely for their specialties, as players like Tyrann Mathieu, Landon Collins, and Harrison Smith all make north of $10 million a year, but it’s also left non-elite players across the board to fend for their financial lives in a market that rapidly had its middle class eroded.

But as these things so often go, there can be a ton of value found on the relatively cheap for a team willing to get creative with their personnel groupings. For this reason, the Philadelphia Eagles‘ decision to sign, re-sign, and draft a trio of strong safeties is potentially brilliant from a value standpoint: the team may have just added a trio of contributors for less than one “starter”.

You see, despite all playing the same position, Jalen Mills, Will Parks, and K’Von Wallace are very different players.

Mills, a do-it-all college DB, spent his first four seasons in the NFL as an exclusive outside cornerback. If he were to end up back in that role in 2020 due to injury or coaching staff preference, $5 million for one season is great value for a CB2. However, per Mills’ own admission, the Eagles really would like to use the 26-year-old in the recently vacated, do-it-all strong safety role Malcolm Jenkins filled from 2014-19. While it’s incredibly unrealistic to assume Mills will be able to match vintage Jenkins’ production as a first time performer at the positions, it’s entirely possible the drop off won’t be nearly as drastic as the $7 million the team is saving from moving on from their former defensive captain.

Remember, Jenkins doesn’t have to be replaced one-for-one either.

While Mills can certainly cover in space, it’s less clear whether or not he’d be able to impact the run game like Jenkins in the box. Fortunately, he doesn’t have to, as Parks is a deceptively good box safety who performed very well as a psudo-linebacker for Vance Joseph’s Denver Broncos from 2017-18. Despite his size, which is great for a safety but slight for a linebacker, Parks is an effective run-stuffer who can play the role of nickel/dime linebacker with ease in defensive sub-packages. While the Eagles did invest heavily on linebacker in the draft and free agency, adding Jatavis Brown, Davion Taylor, and Temple’s Shaun Bradley, it’s entirely possible the team opts to run a three safety look as their base package, which would effectively make Parks a 6-foot-1, 194 pound will linebacker. Still, with top-tier weakside linebackers like Cory Littleton going for $11.75 million in free agency, and the 2020 NFL Draft’s top option, Patrick Queen, being selected with the 28th overall pick, filling that role with a safety making $1.48 million this fall is a fantastic value. Remember, the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers experimented with safety-heavy dime defensive packages as their base defensive looks in 2019 and 2018 respectively, so this isn’t a new idea.

And then there’s Wallace, quite possibly the most popular of the Philadelphia Eagles’ 2020 draft picks if for no other reason than his undying love for the team on social media.

Wallace may be listed as a safety, and would probably fill the role in a traditional 4-3 base defensive package, but the ex-Clemson Tigers’ best position both in the NFL and college was at slot cornerback, a position he manned for three straight 14-in teams. As a mid-fourth-round pick, Wallace is set to make roughly $610,000 in 2020 as per Over the Cap, or roughly one-tenth of money the Los Angeles Chargers will be paying Chris Harris Jr. Now Wallace may not be as good as Harris right now, and may not even beat out Nickell Robey-Coleman for the team’s starting spot in the slot, he’s certainly not one-tenth as talented, and may one day be the best player of the bunch before the end of his four-year rookie contract.

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So for those keeping track at home, the Philadelphia Eagles may have added their new starting weakside linebacker, new starting slot cornerback, and new starting strong safety for a little over $7 million, $600,000 less than just a soon-to-be-33-year-old Malcolm Jenkins would have cost the team in 2020. Now that is some savvy salary cap wheelin’ and dealin’.

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