Phillies: A rotation plan for a shortened 2020 season

If baseball happens at all, an abbreviated schedule could play into the hands of the Philadelphia Phillies when it comes to their starting rotation.

It’s far from certain that we’ll see the Philadelphia Phillies take the field in any way, shape, or form in 2020. But if they do, the shortened season might be a great opportunity for them to showcase their strengths and trim the fat of their rotation, assuming that we get something that falls in the range of the 82 game-slate proposed by the owners and the 100 games or so that the players are supposedly in favor of.

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First off, Aaron Nola is a given to start every fifth day. Even in the event of a day off, he should not be given an extra day of rest. He is this team’s workhorse, and he needs to be out there every fifth day, no exceptions. Zack Wheeler needs to be treated the same way when you consider the contract that the Phillies gave him. You’d only be asking for about 18 to 24 starts for each of them in this shortened format; the team needs to maximize the amount of time that these two hurlers take that mound.

After that, the Phillies will probably feel obligated to put Jake Arrieta in what is nominally the #3 slot in the rotation, although they shouldn’t. Still, if they want to give him an extra day or skip his turn here or there, I’ll allow it. 15 to 18 starts by Arrieta might be a tolerable amount, assuming that he stays healthy and at least pitches like some faint version of his former self.

The real wild card here is Spencer Howard, and the Phillies should absolutely use him liberally. I’m talking about every fifth day for him as well, maybe with an occasional extra day off if the schedule allows. Young pitchers, even studs, normally have to deal with innings limits in their first taste of MLB action. But Howard would have no such impediments in this season’s alternate format. Big league hitters haven’t seen him before, and the Phillies need to exploit that.

Zach Eflin also seems assured of a spot, though his performance will largely dictate if the team wants to send him out there with the same frequency as Nola, Wheeler, and perhaps Howard. Early struggles can’t be tolerated, though. If he falters and needs to go to the bullpen, I’d be in favor of using Vince Velasquez in a timeshare situation with Nick Pivetta in the team’s 5A/5B spot. In this scenario, each of these pitchers would throw three or four innings in the games they shared. That might sound strange, but all semblance of normal strategy is out the window at this point.

Ranger Suarez adds an additional wrinkle, and it’s an attractive wrinkle (ew?) because he’s the only left-handed starter in the mix for the Phillies. Maybe it would actually be preferable to use him with either Vinny V or Pivetta so that teams will have to decide whether it’s even worth stacking their lineups with lefties or righties. You can’t be above mind games like this in 2020.

Next. 2000 Phillies: Tomas Perez. dark

All of this is great in theory, but it remains to be seen if the Phillies will have a 2020 season. If they do, however, they’ve got to get their best pitchers on the hill as often as possible (including basically baptizing Spencer Howard by fire) and be quick with the hook when something isn’t working.

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