Philadelphia Eagles: Will Zach Ertz make the Hall of Fame?

Let’s take a look at whether or not Philadelphia Eagles tight end Zach Ertz has the goods to secure a place in Canton once his playing career is over.

It’s always fun to play the “in or out” game with professional athletes, and the recent lack of sports has given people more time to reflect on such things. But while many Philadelphia Eagles fans are already of the mindset that Zach Ertz is a Hall of Famer once he retires, a deeper dive is needed to determine if that will truly be the case.

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First, it’s helpful to look at the historic precedent here. Currently, there are only nine tight ends in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, which seems like a shockingly low number to me. So it doesn’t look like it’s a particularly easy bar to clear, although I guess that’s the whole point of a Hall of Fame in the first place. But we can try to use these players as some kind of measuring stick.

It goes without saying (but I’ll say it anyway) that the tight end position has greatly evolved over the decades. For a large chunk of NFL history, many teams hardly ever considered throwing to their tight end, and the league was more run-heavy overall anyway. That’s why it’s so hard to compare Ertz’ numbers with those of a Mike Ditka or a Kellen Winslow. Still, it looks like some benchmarks are necessary to get Canton’s attention when it comes to tight ends.

Ertz, at 106 games played so far in his NFL career, is just three games shy of Winslow’s 109, which is notable because that’s the fewest games played of any Hall of Fame tight end. Winslow, however, was an athletic marvel who revolutionized the position and paved the way for the likes of Shannon Sharpe and Tony Gonzalez. This leads me to conclude that Ertz is going to need to play several more years at his current level to merit consideration for the Hall, as merely getting into a certain range of games played with objectively good numbers will not be enough. He’ll need to finish with raw statistics that are clearly superior to those of the “historical” tight ends who are already in the Hall because of the differences in football styles between eras. I think it’s reasonable to assert that Ertz will need four more healthy/good years at a minimum to seriously work his way into the conversation.

One thing that could be working against Ertz, however, is the recent glut of talent at the position. The exclusive group of Hall of Fame tight ends is about to expand quickly in the coming years. Antonio Gates is a no-doubter once he becomes eligible, and the duo of Jason Witten and Rob Gronkowski will follow on his heels if they ever decide whether or not they’re done playing.

And then there’s Travis Kelce, who broke into the league the same year as Ertz. Look, I love Ertz as much as the next fan, but I don’t think I can say he’s better than Kelce with a straight face. It seems like Ertz will always be relegated to second banana status because of this, never the best player at his position at a given time. That doesn’t mean he can’t earn a bronze bust on his own, but people have a habit of comparing players rather than just judging them on their own merits. That’s basically what I’ve been doing this whole time!

Other active tight ends like Greg Olsen and Jimmy Graham have had excellent careers, and their five-year primes may have been better than what Ertz has done from 2015-19, though Ertz is at least in the ballpark. So it’s good news for him that experts agree that those two players are probably Canton-bound someday. It stands to reason that if Ertz can avoid a big dropoff and remain consistent like they have, he has a solid chance.

Ertz sits at 5,743 receiving yards in his career so far, and I believe that there are two statistical thresholds that would be big feathers in his cap and could pave the way to the Hall. The first is catching Harold Carmichael at 8,978 yards to become the Eagles’ all-time leading receiver, at least in terms of yardage. Ertz should eclipse Carmichael in catches next season, as he sits just 64 back, but the yards will take some work. Once he gets there, however, the Hall will need to take a long, hard look at the all-time leading receiver in the history of a 90-year old franchise.

The second benchmark is 10,000 yards, something that only four other tight ends have ever accomplished. Some of the other players I mentioned earlier will get there first, but Ertz would surely be sitting pretty if he hit that number as well. In the end, I think this will be the key to his candidacy. Along the way, it sure would help if he built on his three Pro Bowl selections and tossed in another Super Bowl ring or two, although that shouldn’t be heavily considered when determining if a player is worthy (people love to bring up championships in these discussions, however).

It won’t be a cakewalk for Zach Ertz to make the Hall of Fame, as I think he needs at least four more seasons like the ones he’s put together recently. And it will be interesting to see if the presence of Dallas Goedert will hurt Ertz’ case because he could take away looks and overall production. But I’m in the same camp that most Eagles’ fans are, as I think that Zach Ertz is a Hall of Famer in our midst. I’m just going to need to reserve final judgment until about 2025.