Philadelphia Eagles: The NFL Draft is a total crapshoot

CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs and Justin Jefferson may become NFL superstars, but Howie Roseman and the Philadelphia Eagles will be wise to consider all options.

In a few days, Commissioner Roger Goodell will take to the virtual podium to kick off the 2020 NFL Draft. As fans and pundits share their mixed views of players picked, many in these parts hope Howie Roseman and Co. can work their magic to secure a top WR for the Philadelphia Eagles. CeeDee Lamb? Henry Ruggs III? Jerry Jeudy? Justin Jefferson? Yet as the selections slowly trickle in and feedback grows, the truth is nobody knows what they’re truly getting.

The NFL draft is a complete and total, calculated crapshoot.

Do you remember how excited you were when the Eagles selected a talented WR from USC with the 20th pick in 2015 draft? Here is a portion of said player’s pre-draft analysis courtesy of NFL.com:

"“Runs a good route and competes hard on every snap. Able to drive defender into a poor leverage position. Bouncy, quick feet for burst out of breaks. Adequate separation quickness and twitch. Understands his position. .. Almost always works his way back to the throw when needed. Natural hands. Has snatch-and-run readiness after the catch with initial quickness to make things happen. Tracks the ball over his shoulder and careful not to crowd himself against the boundary. Dominated the competition over second half of the year. Dangerous punt returner.”"

That was Nelson Agholor. Did you see much of that over the course of his five years in Philly? Hindsight clearly shows that his 2017 campaign was the anomaly. Yet the team was excited at the time. I was excited at the time. Even Mike Mayock, then lead draft expert with NFL Network and current GM of the Las Vegas Raiders, was excited, saying this:

"“Agholor is a precise route runner. He has added value as a great returner. He reminds you of Jeremy Maclin, the guy he’s replacing. Agholor can play anywhere, outside and in the slot. The Philadelphia Eagles are going to love him.”"

(I guess it’s no coincidence that Mayock and the Raiders signed the former Eagles wideout to a one-year deal last month after free agency began.) Anyhow, Agholor’s unceremonious Philly exit certainly yielded no love lost.

At this time of year, it’s fun to *imagine* what a player can be based off college performance and pre-draft measurables, but the fact of the matter is, no one can say with absolute certainty that a player will pan out. There’s just too many variables: work ethic, scheme, mental fortitude, injuries, maturity, actual talent versus projected growth.

The best way to succeed in the draft is through a comprehensive evaluation, including prospect interviews, studying film, interviewing the prospect’s former coaches, knowing your own coaching staff’s strengths and weaknesses, and faith in your ability to help a particular player grow, all of which the Eagles organization does extremely well. But again, the draft is a crapshoot.

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For every Agholor – who actually wasn’t that bad – there’s a Jason Kelce (sixth round, 2011), Trent Cole (fifth round, 2005), Seth Joyner (eigth round… yes, it was a thing, 1986).

As a member of the Eagles PR department, I witnessed firsthand the number of media requests for players following a given draft. Take 2007, for example, the team had traded out of the first round to select Donovan McNabb‘s eventual heir apparent, Kevin Kolb, with the 36th pick overall. Naturally this was big news – McNabb was Andy Reid‘s hand-picked QB from day one. Kolb got a lot of media attention – rightfully so.

So, too, did the team’s third-round selection: Tony Hunt, a big-named RB out of Penn State. The team had also drafted a possible Brian Dawkins replacement in fellow Clemson safety, C.J. Gaddis (5th round).

None of those picks panned out. Kolb had the most success, notching a few good starts in 2010 before eventually being shipped to the Arizona Cardinals in 2011. He went 3-4 as an Eagles starter and was out of the league a year later. Hunt was gone following the 2008 season, meanwhile Gaddis never made an NFL roster.

Three picks after the Eagles chose Gaddis, they drafted a TE out of Cincinnati expected to contribute largely in the running game as a blocker, named Brent Celek. It’s funny how things turn out.

And this leads back to my point: you truly don’t know what you got until meaningful games are played.

Sure, Lamb, Ruggs, and even Jefferson look good on paper (and college film), but their pro-level projection is just that – an illusion, unless and until, they prove it on the field. (Think Corey Davis, John Ross and Mike Williams from the 2017 draft in Philly, none of which have proven elite, thus far.)

It’s okay to get caught in the pre-draft hype; I do, too, and love it! This year will be especially enjoyable considering the lack of other live sports from which to be entertained, but curb your enthusiasm for “must-get” players. Heck, we still don’t even know what the team has with last year’s second-round pick, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. His rookie season was less than inspiring, but that position, in particular, often takes longer to develop (see the trio I mentioned above from 2017). For every Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins, there’s a DeVante Parker and Davante Adams who gradually get better.

The Eagles want – and need – to get younger for health and salary cap reasons. The best way to do that is through comprehensive prospect evaluations, rational thinking, and a magnitude of picks. Roseman knows this. VP of Player Personnel Andy Weidl knows this. Owner Jeffrey Lurie knows this.

The team needs significant help at receiver, but the solution isn’t sacrificing the rest of your valuable picks by drastically trading up for an unproven commodity. The “Best Player Available” approach is one the team would be wise to follow, though a more accurate title would be Best Player Available at a Position of Need approach.

Whether it be receiver, linebacker, defensive back or lineman on either side of the ball, the team has many holes to fill. The teams that consistently win in the league are those that make the most out of what’s given. The Eagles currently have eight picks in this year’s draft. Set your hopes for a particular player aside for a moment, and trust that Roseman and Co. will make the most of these resources.

Next. Lucas Niang could be the new and improved Big V. dark

As a perennial Super Bowl contender, history suggests the Philadelphia Eagles will.

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