Philadelphia Phillies Weekend Preview: Milwaukee Brewers
By Mike Lacy
This weekend’s matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers is previewed.
After two straight series against first place teams, the schedule temporarily eases up for the Philadelphia Phillies. The Brewers will visit town, and if the Phillies have any hope of pulling out of their recent tailspin, this would be a good time to do it.
Milwaukee Brewers
Record: 24-29 (4th in NL Central)
Manager: Craig Counsell
The last time they met
The Philadelphia Phillies traveled to Milwaukee in late April and won the first two games in the series. They were leading the third game as well, until Jerad Eickhoff and the bullpen broke down and allowed six runs in the sixth inning.
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What’s the deal with the Brewers
After a poor April (8-15), the Brewers managed to finish May with a winning record. They benefited from a relatively weak schedule, as they had four series against teams currently in last place.
The Brewers aren’t an outstanding offensive team, but they do walk a lot. Their 213 walks rank second in the National League. They also have received strong production from noted PED user Ryan Braun who will likely be a hot name at the trade deadline.
Reason to hate the Brewers
The Brewers have found Citizens Bank Park quite hospitable in recent years. Since 2013, the Brewers have gone 9-1 in Philly, and have won their last seven games. Considering their unimpressive play at just about every other stadium in the majors, it’s hard to explain their dominance at CBP.
Brewers player who isn’t entirely horrible
Already regarded as one of the National League’s best catchers before the season began, Jonathan Lucroy appears headed for a career-best season at the plate. His nine home runs are halfway to his season best total.
Brewers player who is horrible
Journeyman outfielder Alex Presley has received the bulk of playing time in left field lately, but he hasn’t exactly taken advantage of the extra opportunities. Over the past month, he’s recorded a .200 batting average.
Brief Phillies update
Regression has kicked the Philadelphia Phillies in the butts. Their pitching staff has struggled a bit against some good offensive teams, and the Philadelphia Phillies’ offense hasn’t come close to compensating.
Starting pitching preview
A preview of the projected starting pitching matchups for the series
Jerad Eickhoff vs. Chase Anderson
Anderson had an outstanding rookie season in 2014 and finished tenth in Rookie of the Year voting. However, he hasn’t built on that success and sports an unsightly ERA of 5.00 in 2016. He’s 0-2 lifetime against the Phillies, and they scored four runs in five innings against him earlier this season.
Eickhoff continues to be inconsistent. He followed up a seven inning, zero run start against the Braves by giving up four runs in six innings against the Cubs. While the quality of the opposing lineups likely had a lot to do with that inconsistency, the Phillies need him to string together some quality outings.
Vincent Velasquez vs. Jimmy Nelson
Velasquez has struggled lately. He hasn’t made it past the fifth inning in his two most recent starts, and the Cubs had their way with him, scoring seven runs in 4.2 innings.
At 27 years of age, Nelson is establishing himself as a top starter. He’s faced the Philadelphia Phillies twice in his career and has a 4.63 ERA in those two starts.
Jeremy Hellickson vs. Junior Guerra
Guerra took a long time to make it to the major leagues, as he made his début last year at the age of 30. The Venezuela native may be proving to be a late bloomer as he’s 3-1 with a 3.47 in six starts this season.
Hellickson has been looking sharp lately. If he continues to pitch this well, depending on the Phillies’ status, he might fetch a nice return at the trade deadline.
Nola has been victimized by a lack of run support, but he continues to pitch well. His last eight outings would all be classified as “quality starts.”
Peralta is having a bad season. His 6.51 ERA is one of the worst marks in baseball, and he’s leading the league in hits allowed. He did pick up a win against the Phillies, but that was mostly due to run support; He allowed four runs in five innings.
Reason for optimism
Unlike their previous two opponents, the Brewers aren’t in first place. They’re also not good enough to continue their dominance in Philadelphia forever. They’re due to lose some games.
Reason for pessimism
The Brewers have a few good hitters in their lineup, which is more than the Phillies can say. It’s likely they’ll have at least one strong game offensively, and the Phillies are unlikely to match that output.
Next: Why trade for Jimmy Parades?
Prediction
The Brewers dominance of Citizens Bank Park comes to an end when the Philadelphia Phillies take the opener. The Brewers will win the next two, with the Phillies salvaging a series split in Sunday’s finale.