Philadelphia Phillies Series Preview: The Detroit Tigers

Tonight the Philadelphia Phillies will begin a three-game interleague series against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park.

This series begins a six-game road trip for the Philadelphia Phillies that will take them through Detroit and Chicago.  These teams last played a series in July of 2013 with the Tigers sweeping the Phillies 3-0. But, a lot has changed since then as the tigers are no longer annual contenders with the rise of the Kansas City Royals while the Philadelphia Phillies have finished their bottoming out period and now look like a team on the rise.

The Tigers are one of the streakiest teams in the majors enduring losing streaks of four (twice) and seven games while having winning streaks of four (twice). The Philadelphia Phillies are picking a bad time to head to Detroit as the Tigers have won six of their last seven games but recent history suggests that they’re due for another losing streak soon.

The Phillies will come into this series after losing a series to the Braves that they slept walked through. However, the Philadelphia Phillies did score five runs last night for the first time in nine games (the last time was against Atlanta too). The Tigers are coming off of a series win over the Tampa Bay Rays that saw them score 19 runs in three games.

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The Tigers are the anti-Phillies being led by their offense with a mediocre rotation and a dumpster fire bullpen. The Tigers have two of the top five hitters in the AL batting average wise in Nick Castellanos (.340) and Victor Martinez (.329) showing that hitting coach Wally Joyner is doing something right in Detroit. The Tigers average 4.6 runs per game and have scored 5+ runs in almost half of their games. In comparison, the Philadelphia Phillies average 3.23 runs per game (near the bottom of the MLB) and have scored 5+ runs in eight games. It’s not possible to get on more opposite ends of the offensive spectrum than in this series.

The Philadelphia Phillies will be helped by the fact that this series is played in an American League ballpark which allows Ryan Howard and Tommy Joseph to get in the lineup at the same time. Ryan Howard can start as the DH while Joseph, the superior defender, can start at first base. Joseph has already made some spectacular plays at first and he’ll probably make a few more in this series.

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When it comes to pitching, the Philadelphia Phillies have the clear edge. The Phillies allow 3.93 runs per game while the Tigers allow 4.72 runs per game. Probable pitching matchups are below:

• Monday: Vincent Velasquez (2.24 ERA) vs Mike Pelfrey (5.49 ERA)
• Tuesday: Jeremy Hellickson (3.99 ERA) vs Justin Verlander (4.58 ERA)
• Wednesday: Aaron Nola (2.85 ERA) vs Anibal Sanchez (6.23 ERA)

The top storyline for these matchups will be Hellickson vs Verlander because it seems like Jeremy Hellickson is ending his time with the Philadelphia Phillies because he is pitching well enough to be flipped to a contender for prospects. This start will be important for Hellickson because it will show if he can handle a move back to the American League if a team like the White Socks comes calling. While Hellickson won’t bring in more than a mid-level prospect that’s still a wild card that could help the Phillies in the future.

If these games get down to bullpens the Phillies should win each one. The Phillies have the Major League leader in saves in Jeanmar Gomez (16 saves) and holds with Hector Neris with 11. The Phillies also have the NL leaders in strikeouts with Neris (33) and David Hernandez (30). The bullpen has been untouchable for the Philadelphia Phillies.

The same cannot be said for the Tigers, though. When their bullpen comes into games, all hope of getting a win is lost immediately.Detroit has a 4.11 bullpen ERA and is allowing opponents to bat .268 against their relif pitchers. Simply put that’s not good enough.

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This series will help determine to what extent the Philadelphia Phillies will be selling fully or selling while still competing for the playoffs. It may be early but the trade market is rapidly developing and the Philadelphia Phillies have wanted assets in Carlos Ruiz, Jeremy Hellickson and others depending on their performance. The earlier that a team is willing to make a trade, the better the prospects that they will receive in return.

The Phillies still want to compete without sacrificing the rebuild which means that they will be conservative buyers and sellers only selling players that can be replaced from the minors or outside the organization and only buying using fringe talent. The Phillies don’t have the offensive firepower to matchup with the tigers so I predict another 1-2 series loss.