Section215.com Week 15 DraftKings Picks

Each week there are millions that participate in Daily Fantasy Sports, and since we at Section215.com care about our readers, we have decided to provide you with some detailed insight on the best plays on DraftKings.

Next: Semi-Coherent Eagles vs Cardinals Preview

Not everyone plays on DraftKings, and there are definitely pricing differences between each site. If you have any questions on whether or not I would recommend using the players listed on another site, feel free to reach me on Twitter @JFerrie23.

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers ($7,400) @ Oakland (GB -3; O/U 47.5)—To be honest, I don’t think I had an Aaron Rodgers lineup this season, which is lucky for me since he hasn’t put up his usual numbers. However, I believe that can change this weekend. Rodgers will be heading on the road to meet an Oakland team that allows the fifth-most passing yard per game (285.5). While Oakland has somewhat limited fantasy production to quarterbacks, this is a great spot for Rodgers. His position players appear to have the advantage if we use Pro Football Focus ratings, which I’ve found to be useful. There is a good chance that the Raiders allow 20-or-more points for the 11^th time in a game this week. If we use DFSReport.com, we can see that Rodgers was owned in just 1.9-percent of lineups in the two dollar NFL Snap contest—which has 114,943 entries. I’d say it is a good time to look at Rodgers.

Matt Ryan ($5,700) @ Jacksonville (Jax -3; O/U 49)—Call me crazy, but I love this spot for Ryan. For starters, we all know how brutal he has been this season. Ryan, similar to Rodgers, has been a guy that I’ve limited my exposure to, but that’ll change this weekend. In his last three contests, Ryan has significantly underperformed, which will drive down the ownership. On top of that, Ryan has finally dropped below $6,000. At that price, and throwing the ball 40 times a game, I don’t see how Ryan misses his implied point total of 13.85 this weekend. The Jaguars have surrendered 20-or-more points ten times this season, and I don’t see a reason that it won’t happen again here.

Carson Palmer ($7,000) @ Philadelphia (Ari -3; O/U 51)—The Arizona Cardinals take their smoking hot offense into Philadelphia to meet the Eagles, who have pulled off back-to-back victories over AFC East opponents. It’s no secret that the Eagles defense has struggled at times this season. The Eagles have actually surrendered the second-most touchdowns (29) through the air this season. It should come as no surprise that they’ve also been the second-most generous team to opposing quarterbacks—allowing over 21 fantasy points per game. Somehow Palmer is still priced at just $7,000 in an elite match-up. The total is very high, and Palmer’s skill players are better than the Eagles defenders. I like Palmer in all formats.

For your consideration: Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Matt Stafford

More from Section 215

• 4 Eagles on the Bubble Who Have Clinched Their 53-Man Roster Spots
• Best Pennsylvania Sportsbook Promos: Win $650 GUARANTEED Bonus PLUS $100 off NFL Sunday Ticket
• 3 Punters the Eagles Must Target to Replace Arryn Siposs
• Cowboys Trey Lance Trade Proves How Screwed They Are With Dak Prescott
• Devon Allen Took Britain Covey’s Job on Eagles

Running-Back

Devonta Freeman ($7,500) @ Jacksonville (Jax -3; O/U 49)—I am back on the Freeman bandwagon this week, and it is because of the match-up. The Jaguars have a plus/minus of 4.2 against the running-back position, according to Fantasy Labs. On top of that, the Jaguars rank 21^st in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, which evaluates how well a team plays against a specific position. Add onto those two facts that Freeman’s salary has dropped $500 in the past month due to some underperformance. In two of his last three, Freeman has finished with single-digit fantasy points. I think people are fading Freeman and thinking that his early season run was a flash in the pan. He is getting touches in both the run and passing games. In a game that could go over 50 points, I like Freeman to bounce back.

Adrian Peterson ($7,100) vs. Chicago (Min -6; O/U 43)—This appears to be a good spot for Peterson, who faces the Bears on Sunday. The Bears have been pretty good against opposing running-backs, but Peterson went for over 100 yards on just 20 carries in their last meeting. That performance was good enough for 15.9 DraftKings points. In seven of his last eight games, Peterson has reached double-digit points on DK. The Vikings are also six point favorites, so game script should favor Peterson in this contest. On a per game basis, Chicago is allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game (125.7).

Eddy Lacy ($5,200) @ Oakland (GB -3; O/U 47.5)—Welcome back to fantasy relevance, Eddy Lacy. This week the Packers get the Raiders, and as stated with Rodgers, this match-up is pretty good. The Raiders come into this contest ranked 28^th in DVOA against opposing running-backs. While James Starks has stolen some time from Lacy, I think he is still a reliable option. In the last three games he started, Lacy has averaged 23 touches. The volume is there when he starts, so this could be a good spot. The salary is still depressed due to his inconsistency, so it could provide some savings if you play him.

Jeremy Hill ($5,000) @ San Francisco (Cin -4.5; O/U 40.5)—This game has the lowest total on the slate, and it makes sense as the quarterbacks are A.J McCarron and Blaine Gabbert. That immediately pushes me to look at the running-backs in this contest. Last week, the 49ers were destroyed by the Browns rushing attack. This week, the 49ers will a much more talented combo in Hill and Bernard. The game script didn’t favor either of these running-backs last week, but I do expect them to keep the ball out of McCarron’s hands. The 49ers rank 24^th in DVOA against opposing running-backs this season, so it is a good spot for the Cincinnati running-backs. It will come down to picking the right back, and I think that will be Hill this week.

For your consideration: Lamar Miller

Wide Receivers

Calvin Johnson ($6,900) @ New Orleans (NO -3; O/U 51)—The Saints finally had a good game on defense last week, but I expect that to change against the Lions. There is no doubt Matthew Stafford can be turnover prone, but at the same time, he can light a defense up for five touchdowns. This week, he will have the luxury of having Calvin Johnson against the defense that ranks 29^th against number one receivers. On Pro Football Focus, the projected cornerback on Calvin Johnson is Brandon Browner, who has been one of the worst in football this season.  As a matter of fact, PFF has a 75-point difference between the two—in favor of Megatron. In a game with a total over 50, there is no reason to believe Johnson doesn’t hit and exceed his implied points of 16.4.

Allen Hurns ($5,600) vs. Atlanta (Jax -3; O/U 49)—The popular play the past few weeks has been Allen Robinson, and for good reason. Robinson is one of the ten best receivers in football this season. That will most likely draw the attention of Marcus Trufant, who is the Falcons top corner. If that happens, it will leave Hurns with the advantage over Robert Alford. Against number two receivers, who usually are covered by Alford, the Falcons rank 26^th in DVOA. Last week Hurns was just four targets, but turned that into 100-yards and a touchdown. That isn’t the game line that I like to target, but he does show the big play ability I want to roster in a tournament. In the $2 Thursday contest, Hurns was owned in just four-percent of contests. His partner in crime, Allen Robinson, was owned in 13.5-percent. If the goal is differentiation in a high scoring game, Hurns provides that.

Larry Fitzgerald ($7,300) @ Philadelphia (Ari -3; O/U 51)—The Eagles have certainly struggled against opposing wide receivers, surrendering 29 touchdowns through the air. Their struggles have been widely criticized, and in all likelihood, they’ll continue against Fitzgerald this Sunday night. The Eagles are 26^th in DVOA against opposing number one wide receivers. While that metric is insightful, it should be known that Fitzgerald primarily lines up in the slot, so he could see lesser corners or Malcolm Jenkins. Jenkins is the better of the two match-ups for the Eagles, so it wouldn’t shock me to see, but the Cardinals move Fitzgerald around so much, it shouldn’t be an issue. Fitzgerald hasn’t scored in his past five games, but the Eagles poor pass defense could change that this weekend. Since I’ve been covering ownership, it should be known that Michael Floyd was owned in 12.8-percent of contests in the $2 Thursday contest, who is just $4,400 on DK. If you don’t have the salary to get Fitzgerald, I do like Floyd—just know he will have a higher ownership than you may expect. Fitzgerald was owned in just 5.1-percent of contests.

Jeremy Maclin ($5,500) @ Baltimore (KC -7.5; O/U 41)—It seems like every time Alex Smith drops back the ball is heading in the direction of Jeremy Maclin. In the past three games, Maclin has 30 targets. At $5,500, he has to catch six balls for sixty yards to hit his salary implied points. The Ravens have a plus/minus of 2.6, which means they allow an extra 2.6-points above expectation to opposing receivers. The Ravens have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season. He is still a value play on a team that has limited options. This should be a good spot for Maclin, who looks to exceed his implied salary for the third straight week.

Alshon Jeffery ($7,300) @ Minnesota (Min -6; O/U 43)—The last time these two teams met, Jeffery went for 30.6 DraftKings points. It shouldn’t be news that Xavier Rhodes has struggled against taller wide receivers this season. Jeffery has seen a high volume of targets in the last three weeks (32), so there is a good shot at collecting some serious PPR points. The Vikings rank 16^th against DVOA against top wide receivers, but they’ve been very suspect the last few weeks. If the game flows as Vegas projects, the Bears should be trailing and throwing the ball. That makes me want some action on Jeffery this weekend. I also don’t like a ton of the top guys, so Jeffery is higher than usual in my rankings.

Tight-Ends

Julius Thomas ($4,700) vs. Atlanta (Jax -3; O/U 49)—The Falcons will get one of their toughest tight-end match-ups this weekend against Julius Thomas. For the season, Atlanta has allowed 4.1-points above salary implied expectations. This weekend, Thomas will get to face the Falcons, who have surrendered the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing tight-ends. Along with that, Thomas has outperformed his implied salary in four-straight weeks. In each of the past eight contests, Thomas has been targeted at least five times, scoring a touchdown in five games—including four in a row. In a game that should be high-scoring, Thomas is in a good spot to outperform his implied salary yet again.

Ben Watson ($4,800) vs. Detroit (NO -3; O/U 51)—It would appear that the Saints have the most tight-end friendly system outside of New England. The departure of Jimmy Graham has made Ben Watson an elite tight-end target in fantasy. In eight of his past nine games, Watson has outperformed his implied salary. In his last nine games, Watson has been targeted at least five times with four touchdowns in that span. The Lions come into this game ranked 30^th in DVOA against opposing tight-ends. It would then make sense that the Lions allow 2.3 fantasy points above expectation to opposing tight-ends.  Watson has been getting consistent volume this season and is playing in a game with a high total, so I do like him. If his price gets over $5,000—I’ll start to fade him, but we aren’t there just yet.

Zach Ertz ($3,200) vs. Arizona (Ari -3; O/U 51)—I am all aboard the Ertz bandwagon, but to be fair, I’ve never really been off it. The guy is super talented, but the Eagles just don’t use him the right way. However, he has been good enough to outperform his implied salary in seven of his last nine games. At $3,200, Ertz needs just 5.24-points to meet his salary implied points. Ertz will face the Cardinals, who have allowed 2.6 points above implied salary. This game also features a very high total, so Ertz could find the end zone, too. I don’t like the prices of too many tight-ends this weekend, but Ertz is one of my favorite plays.

Defense/Special Teams

Seattle ($4,200) @ Cleveland (Sea -15; O/U 43)—The Seahawks will face one of the worst offenses in football this weekend and there is no doubt that they will be the chalk defense. It does make sense as they are far superior in terms of talent. I think Seattle is every ones favorite defense this weekend, but it is whether or not you can fit them in your lineup. If you roster Tyler Lockett, I do like stacking him with the Seattle defense for double the fun if he runs one back.

Kansas City ($3,700) @ Baltimore (KC -7.5; O/U 41)—This game has one of the lowest totals on the board and Baltimore is going through some change at quarterback. Jimmy Clausen was surprisingly decent against the Seahawks last week, so I don’t think that he is the total issue with Baltimore. Their lack of reliable targets and talent makes Kansas City an interesting play. Saving $500 from Seattle and going to K.C maybe the play, but I think Seattle has a higher ceiling than K.C. Both will be popular, but it is a good pivot in a favorable match-up.

Cincinnati ($3,400) @ San Francisco (Cin -5.5; O/U 40.5)—The Bengals are going to look to control this game on the ground this week, which makes me believe that the pace of this game will be slow. Along with that, I still don’t trust Blaine Gabbert and company, so Cincinnati could score a defensive touchdown. Even if they don’t, I think the total is so low because of McCarron, not the entire match-up. They are $800 cheaper than the Seahawks and were lower owned in Thursday contests. This is a good spot for the Cincinnati defense in what should be an ugly, low-scoring game.

Please, remember to track the injury reports until your lineup locks!