DraftKings Week 14 Picks
By Jason Ferrie
Each week there are millions that participate in Daily Fantasy Sports, and since we at Section215.com care about our readers, we have decided to provide you with some detailed insight on the best plays on DraftKings.
Not everyone plays on DraftKings, and there are definitely pricing differences between each site. If you have any questions on whether or not I would recommend using the players listed on another site, feel free to reach me on Twitter @JFerrie23.
Quarterback
Jameis Winston ($5,500) vs. New Orleans (TB -3.5; O/U 51)—I hope this isn’t a news flash to anyone, but the Saints defense stinks. So far this season, the Saints have allowed 25.44 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks—which is the worst in football. According to FantasyLabs, the Saints have allowed 8.7-points above expectation to quarterbacks, which is also the worst in football. In all seriousness, the Saints defense shouldn’t allow fewer than 28 points in this game as their talent just doesn’t match-up well with Tampa Bay’s. He will be highly owned, but not the highest on the slate. I am perfectly fine with Winston in all formats.
Tyrod Taylor ($5,400) at Philadelphia (Phi -1; O/U 47)—The Bills travel to Philadelphia this week in the battle of LeSean McCoy. In each of his past two weeks, Taylor has put up over 27 DraftKings points—which at his low salary means you’re getting a huge bargain. In each of those two weeks, Taylor outperformed his implied salary by at least 14 DraftKings points. This weekend, he will face an Eagles defense that has allowed 28 passing touchdowns this season. It shouldn’t be a surprise that the Eagles are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks at 21.8. If you haven’t played Taylor at all this season, seriously consider him as the Eagles may have trouble containing his dual-threat abilities.
Ben Roethlisberger ($6,800) at Cincinnati (Cin -2.5; O/U 50)—Roethlisberger is in a great spot for another 30-plus point game this weekend. Multiple reports have suggested that Adam “Pacman” Jones, who has been the Bengals top cornerback, will miss the game this Sunday. That gives a bump to all Pittsburgh skill players, which also bumps Ben, too. The Bengals have been a pretty good defense all season, and have defended the pass well. The issue for Cincinnati comes with the injury to Jones, leaving Dre Kirkpatrick as their top corner. For those who don’t know, Kirkpatrick is ranked as the third-worst cornerback in football, per Pro Football Focus. In his last five games, Big Ben has averaged 43 pass attempts per game, which means that there should be plenty of opportunities to produce. I think both Andy Dalton and Roethlisberger should have big games this weekend, so consider them both in all formats.
For your consideration: Russell Wilson ($6,300) at Baltimore; Andy Dalton ($6,600) vs. Pittsburgh
Running-Back
LeSean McCoy ($6,100) at Philadelphia (Phi -1; O/U 47)—The Eagles rush defense has been pretty stout this season, but the Shady narrative is in full force this week. There is no doubt in my mind that McCoy will be the highest owned back on the slate, but that is for a good reason. His elite talent at a cheap price warrants the play alone. But add in the fact that McCoy has score double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season and I am in. During the past five weeks, McCoy has average 22 carries per contest. The volume is high and McCoy is consistently outperforming his implied salary.
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Doug Martin ($6,200) vs. New Orleans (TB -3.5; O/U 51)—The Buccaneers get the Saints and their poor defense this weekend. As stated with Winston, the Saints defense is very bad—but not just against the pass. This season, the Saints rank 29th in DVOA against opposing running-backs, so the match-up is favorable. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, but the Saints allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running-backs. Over the past three weeks, Martin is averaging an amazing 6.47 yards per carry. That is not just Martin playing well, but his line is destroying people. If you decide to fade Winston, I would suggest giving Martin a long look.
Thomas Rawls ($5,800) at Baltimore (Sea -10; O/U 42)—When evaluating games this week, Rawls jumped off the page. I know that Russell Wilson has been electric the past couple of weeks, but so has Rawls. In each of the past three weeks, Rawls has outperformed his implied salary on DraftKings. Along with that, he has put up games of 43.50, 14.10 and 23.30, respectively. In those three games, Rawls has averaged 25.3 touches per game. I say touches because he has six receptions for 68 yards in those three games. The Ravens rank 15th in DVOA against opposing running-backs, but the volume of Rawls at just $5,800 warrants interest. The 10-point line in favor of Seattle also suggests that game script may favor Rawls in this, too.
For your consideration: C.J Spiller (3,000) at Tampa Bay; Jonathan Stewart ($5,800) vs. Atlanta
Wide Receiver
A.J Green ($7,900) vs. Pittsburgh (Cin -2.5; O/U 50)—The Steelers will have their hands full this weekend as they face one of the NFL’s most lethal offenses. There is no doubt that A.J Green will be at the center of that offense. If Green lines up across the ball from William Gay, he will have a distinct advantage. On Pro Football Focus, the two are separated by 21 points, favoring Green. According to DVOA, the Steelers have the 26th ranked defense against opposing number one receivers. Overall, the Steelers allow the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers at 33.78 points per week. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Green excel again this week as he burned Pittsburgh for 11 catches, 118 yards and a touchdown when the two teams met in October.
Sammy Watkins ($6,100) at Philadelphia (Phi -1; O/U 47)—The Watkins and Taylor show heads into Philadelphia looking to wreak havoc. There is a good chance that they will do so. As stated with Taylor, the Eagles defense has been atrocious the past month and now they get one of the hottest combos in football. In the past two weeks, Watkins has nine receptions for 267 yards and three touchdowns. As if he wasn’t doing well enough, Watkins now runs into the 29th ranked defense against number one wide receivers. This is a prime spot for Watkins, but he may also be highly owned.
Martavis Bryant ($5,700) at Cincinnati (Cin -2.5; O/U 50)— This week, I am joining the bandwagon and playing the Steelers’ Martavis Bryant. The past three weeks have been a reminder that Bryant is an elite talent that can take any ball the distance. In those three weeks, Bryant has been targeted 31 times, hauling in 15 balls for 361 yards and two touchdowns. If the Bengals leave Dre Kirkpatrick on Bryant as projected by Pro Football Focus earlier this week, Bryant may be in line for a huge day. The volume has been high, the ability to break big gains has been consistent, and the total is the second-highest on the slate. Bryant is one of my favorite plays this week.
Odell Beckham Jr. ($9,100) at Miami (NYG -1; O/U 46.5)—This week the Giants will meet the Dolphins on Monday Night Football. This will not just be a prime-time TV game, but a primetime match-up for Beckham. Over the past five games, Beckham has been basically unstoppable—racking up five consecutive one hundred yard games to go along with six touchdowns. On Monday, Beckham will see the 32nd ranked defense against opposing number one receivers, which means it could be another huge day for the Giants superstar. If you need more than just DVOA—Beckham has a 24 point advantage against Brent Grimes, who is slated to cover Beckham, according to Pro Football Focus.
For your consideration: Danny Amendola ($5,200) at Houston; Tyler Lockett ($3,500) at Baltimore
Tight-End
Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($2,700) vs. New Orleans (TB -3.5; O/U 51)—There seems to be a theme going on here, and that theme is the terrible Saints defense. It should come as no surprise that the Saints rank 32nd in DVOA against the tight-end position. Along with that, the Saints are allowing 3.7 fantasy points above expectation to opposing tight-ends. Jenkins missed a bunch of time this season, but got back on the field and saw six targets last week. In a game with a very high total, this is a good spot for Winston to connect with Jenkins.
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Travis Kelce ($4,700) vs. San Diego (KC -10; O/U 45)—The scorching hot Kansas City Chiefs meet the sluggish San Diego Chargers in what Vegas is projecting to be a blowout. The Chiefs should be able to capitalize on the Chargers 31st ranked defense against tight-ends in this match-up. Last week was the first time this season that Kelce saw fewer than five targets in a game. I don’t expect that trend to continue this week. When these two teams met in San Diego, Kelce caught five balls on seven targets for 46 yards. I believe that Kelce should be able to produce more this weekend, but would only use him in GPP’s as this could get out of hand.
Delaine Walker ($5,600) @ New York Jets (NYJ -7.5; O/U 43)—Each and every week fantasy owners can count on Walker to put up a solid stat line. In fact, I think Walker may be the safest tight-end play excluding Gronk. In all but two games this season, Walker has scored double-digit DraftKings points. The volume is steady as well. This season, Walker has been targeted fewer than five times on just two occasions. As Marcus Mariota grows through his rookie season, he has found his favorite target. Walker is my favorite tight-end this weekend.
For your consideration: Greg Olsen ($6,900) vs. Atlanta; Zach Ertz ($2,600) vs. Buffalo; Charles Clay ($3,500) at Philadelphia
Defense/Special Teams
Seattle Seahawks ($3,500) vs. Baltimore (Sea -10; O/U 42)—This game may get out of hand in hurry. The Seahawks will face Matt Schaub this week, and we all know that he is good for at least on pick six per contest. With that said, I believe the Seahawks have the safest floor and highest ceiling this weekend. It may also be a good idea to stack the Seattle defense and Thomas Rawls in both cash and tournaments.
San Francisco 49ers ($2,100) @ Cleveland (Cle -2; O/U 41)—Honestly, it would not surprise me if this game had fewer than 30 points scored in it this weekend. I have no faith in either quarterback to get the job done. In the last two games, the 49ers defense has allowed fewer than 20 points—and those were against much better offenses. If you want to take a big risk in a GPP, consider the 49ers.
Kansas City Chiefs ($3,200) vs. San Diego (KC -10; O/U 45)—The Chargers are coming into this contest injured at just about every position other than quarterback. Earlier this week both Stevie Johnson and Dontrelle Inman missed practice due to injury. While both may play this weekend, it is hard for me to believe they are healthy and ready to do damage. As a team, the Chiefs rank 5th in DVOA against the pass, so Rivers doesn’t have a great match-up. On the ground, the Chiefs come in with the 7th-best rush defense, per DVOA. Take a look at Kansas City in all formats this weekend.
Next: Semi-Coherent Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills Preview
For your consideration: Denver Broncos ($3,400) vs. Oakland; St. Louis Rams ($2,800) vs. Detroit
If you have any questions about this week, please reach out on Twitter or in the comment section below. Remember to keep checking those injury reports until your players games have started! Best of luck in Week 14!