NFL Week 13 DraftKings Picks

Check out this week’s DraftKings picks.

Each week there are millions that participate in Daily Fantasy Sports, and since we at Section215.com care about our readers, we have decided to provide you with some detailed insight on the best plays on DraftKings.

Not everyone plays on DraftKings, and there are definitely pricing differences between each site. If you have any questions on whether or not I would recommend using the players listed on another site, feel free to reach me on Twitter @JFerrie23.

Quarterback

Cam Newton ($7,400) at New Orleans (Car -6.5;O/U 50)- It is pretty rare that you find the Carolina Panthers in a game with a total greater than 50. This week, Newton and the Panthers find themselves in that situation. Newton has been the model of consistency this season finishing seven of his eleven games with 20-or-more DraftKings points. As most know, the Saints are letting everyone march into the end zone this season–allowing an NFL high 30 passing touchdowns. According to FantasyLabs, the Saints are allowing 9.5 fantasy points above expectation to quarterbacks. There is no doubt that Newton will be the highest owned quarterback, so I like him in cash more than tournaments, but he is going to put up another solid game.

Tom Brady ($8,000) vs Philadelphia (NE -8.5; O/U 49)- The Patriots are coming off their first loss of the season, and Brady almost killed Rob Gronkowski late in the fourth. A little narrative street, but I think Brady is going to be in a bad mood and want to steamroll Philadelphia. Along with that, this game has the second-highest total of the day. And oh yeah, the Eagles have also allowed at least 45 points and five touchdown passes in consecutive games. Those games were against Jameis Winston and Matthew Stafford. Now they get the front-runner for league MVP, so don’t overthink it. Brady will have a lower ownership because of Newton, so this would be the time to jump on the Brady bandwagon.

Ben Roethlisberger ($6,600) vs. Indianapolis (Pit -7.5; O/U 49)- Make sure to keep an eye on the status of Roethlisberger this week (concussion), but if he plays it is an elite play. The Colts are allowing 282.9 passing yards per game and run into Big Ben, who torched Seattle for 450-plus last weekend. According to DVOA, the Colts rank 17th against the pass, which is middle-of-the-road. The total of 49 is tied for the second-highest on the slate and the Steelers are a 7.5-point favorite. Ben’s skill players add more value this week, too. As a cheaper play, I like Big Ben.

Ryan Tannehill ($5,300) vs. Baltimore (Mia -3.5; O/U 42)- Okay, I normally write up three guys, but this week is special. Brady and Newton are going to be very, very popular, so I figured that I would add two value guys. The match-up for Tannehill is a good one this week. The Ravens allow 21 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterback, which is the third-most in football. The fantasy points surrendered is likely related to their 26th ranking pass defense, according to DVOA. While Tannehill has struggled at times this season, he has thrown at least two touchdowns in each home game this season. Along with that, Tannehill has exceed fantasy expectations in his last four games, according to FantasyLabs. He is cheap and will have low ownership, so consider Tannehill.

For your consideration: Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,200) vs. New York Giants

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Running-Back

LeSean McCoy ($5,700) vs. Houston (Buf -3.5; O/U 41.5)- Somehow, McCoy continues to be under-priced on DraftKings. This season, McCoy has played in nine games and reached double-digits in eight. The volume hasn’t been extremely high, but it has been consistent. In each of the last five weeks, McCoy has at least 15 carries and two receptions. In fact, McCoy has at least five targets in all but one of those five games. Despite the Texans defense being very good of late, they rank 25th against opposing running-backs, according to DVOA. On the ground, Houston is allowing 4.3 yards per attempt and 107.5 rushing yards per game. Karlos Williams also won’t be on the field this week, so the volume should be a little greater than in recent weeks.

DeAngleo Williams ($5,600) vs. Indianapolis (Pit -7.5; O/U 49)- If you’re fading Ben this week, Williams is going to be your play. Even if you play Ben, Williams is really still in play. Pittsburgh is one of the few teams that don’t provide a negative correlation in stacking with their quarterback. In three of his last four games, Williams has scored at least 15 DraftKings points. For the season, the Colts are allowing 115 rushing yards per game, which makes this a good match-up. Along with that, the total is greater than seven, which means that game flow may allow for a higher volume of carries for Williams. Williams made my list of plays via ProFootballFocus rating as I believe there is a match-up advantage between Williams and the Indy linebackers. That means that Williams could be trouble rushing and receiving the ball.

Doug Martin ($5,900) vs. Atlanta (TB -1.5; O/U 46)- The Tampa Bay Bucs have put themselves in playoff consideration the last several weeks, and even if they don’t make it, this season has been a success. One reason has been Martin’s play. Martin has been quite good this season, and he gets a great match-up this weekend. The Falcons rank 31st in DVOA, according to FootballOutsiders. To add onto the DVOA, the Falcons have allowed 30.33 fantasy points per game to opposing running-backs. That makes this match-up very attractive. Martin has been boom-or-bust this season, so there is some risk. But overall, I like Martin in tournaments.

Jonathan Stewart ($5,300) at New Orleans (Car -6.5; O/U 50)- As stated with Newton, the total in this game is very attractive. Stewart is going to be the fade to Newton is all formats. That is because the Saints aren’t just bad against the pass. This season, the Saints have allowed 134.5 rushing yards per game, which ranks as the third-worst per game total in football. The DVOA is also something that jumps off the page. According to DVOA, Stewart should be in a good spot as the Saints rank 29th per FootballOutsiders. Even with the success of Newton, Stewart has still been getting volume. In his last seven games, Stewart has at least 20 carries in each of those games. If you don’t play Newton, go with Stewart.

For your consideration: Adrian Peterson ($6,600) vs. Seattle

Wide Receivers

Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,900) at New York Jets (N.Y Jets -2; O/U 46)- Earlier this week, this match-up was in question–but fear not. The Jets announced that Darrelle Revis will not play this Sunday, and he was slated to match-up with Beckham. In his last four games, Beckham has at least 22 fantasy points in each contest. The volume has been just as impressive, as Beckham has 56 targets in his last four games. Beckham will most likely be the highest owned receiver, but for good reason. I love this spot for Beckham.

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Antonio Brown ($8,600) vs. Indianapolis (Pit -7.5; O/U 49)- Brown will have another tough match-up as the Colts rank eighth in DVOA against opposing number one receivers, but that doesn’t push me away. Brown is the clear cut number one in Pittsburgh and that holds up with volume and production. Despite getting shut down by Richard Sherman last week, Brown still reached double-digits. Now, he didn’t reach his expectation, but still received 12 targets. In his last five games, Brown has reached double-digits in each game, and the performance against Sherman was his only sub-20 point performance. The volume is going to be there and the total is high. Brown will be lower owned than Beckham, making this a great pivot with an equal ceiling.

Alshon Jeffery ($6,900) vs. San Francisco (Chi -7.5; O/U 43)- This is another grossly under priced player. Similar to Adrian Peterson, Jeffery is an elite player and talent at a very affordable price. In four of his last five games, Jeffery has scored at least 16 points on DraftKings. The 49ers rank 26th against WR1, according to DVOA. ProFootballFocus projects that Jeffery will match-up against Kenneth Acker. In that match-up, there is roughly a 40-point difference between the two, which means that it should be an elite opportunity for Jeffery. In four of the last five, Jeffery has at least 11 targets. This is a great spot for the Bears and Jeffery.

Danny Amendola ($4,700) vs. Philadelphia (NE -8.5; O/U 49)- This is another injury watch, but if he plays, it is an elite spot. The Eagles have been atrocious against WR1 this season and just about every statistic shows that. According to DVOA, the Eagles rank 31st against opposing number one receivers. While Amendola isn’t Calvin Johnson, he does present a huge problem, especially in the slot. If the Eagles line-up E.J Biggers against Amendola in the slot, there is a 30 point difference in those two, per ProFootballFocus. Even if it isn’t Biggers, the Eagles linebackers have struggled to cover underneath routes–which is where Amendola thrives. If he doesn’t play, pivot to Brandon LaFell at $4,800.

For your consideration: T.Y Hilton ($5,700) at Pittsburgh; DeSean Jackson ($5,100) vs. Dallas; Kamar Aiken ($4,800) at Miami

Tight-End

Greg Olsen ($6,400) at New Orleans (Car -6.5; O/U 50)- This point has been stated twice already, but in case you missed it, the Saints defense stinks. The Saints have allowed the most passing touchdowns in football and that bodes well for Newton’s favorite target. In six of his last seven games, Olsen has reached double-digit points. In those seven games, Olsen has four touchdowns. According to DVOA, the Saints rank dead-last against the tight-end position. There is no doubt that Newton and Olsen will be the most popular stack of the weekend. That doesn’t mean it is a bad play, but if you’re differentiating your lineup, maybe you want to fade these two. Olsen does have a premiere match-up, though.

Delaine Walker ($5,700) vs. Jacksonville (Tenn -2.5; O/U 43.5)- This season, Walker has been the model of consistency, reaching double-digit fantasy points in eight of the ten games he has played. That means the floor is super safe with Walker and makes him a great cash play. Last time Walker played the Jaguars, he put up 21.9 DraftKings points. For the season, the Jaguars rank 30th in DVOA versus opposing tight-ends, so that match-up wasn’t a fluke.

Travis Kelce ($4,700) at Oakland (KC -3; O/U 44)- The Oakland Raiders have been absolutely dreadful against opposing tight-ends this season. As a matter of fact, the Raiders have allowed 19.8 fantasy points per game to opposing tight-ends, which is the worst in football. The Chiefs rely on their tight-end quite a bit. Kelce has at least seven targets in each of his past four contests, and found the end zone in two of those four. The Raiders have allowed 7.2 fantasy points above expectation to opposing tight-ends this season, per FantasyLabs. This match-up is elite and the ownership will probably be lower because of Olsen’s match-up.

Scott Chandler ($2,500) vs. Philadelphia (NE -8.5; O/U 49)- Value, value and more value. The injury to Rob Gronkowski opens the door for Scott Chandler this weekend. Even with Gronk in the lineup, Chandler has scored in two of the last three weeks. The loss of Gronk and Edleman means that the targets need to go somewhere, and it is fair to expect that some go to Chandler–who saw 11 last weekend in Denver. This play is all about value and the Eagles defense being as bad as they have been the last few weeks.

For your consideration: Julius Thomas ($4,000) at Tennessee

Defense/Special Teams

Cincinnati Bengals ($3,400) at Cleveland (Cin -8.5; O/U 43.5)- The Bengals come into this contest as an a pretty big favorite, and that total may even be generous to the Browns. Austin Davis will start at quarterback for the Browns this weekend with the injury of Josh McCown. Can I just stop there? Okay, I won’t. Davis just doesn’t have any options as Cincinnati ranks in the top-10 against both the pass and rush, per DVOA. The game could get out of hand.

New England Patriots ($3,400) vs. Philadelphia (NE -8.5; O/U 49)- Okay, so I do like Cincinnati’s spot more than the Pats, but lets be honest here, the Eagles stink. It really doesn’t matter who is at quarterback for the Eagles, they just don’t have favorable match-ups. The receiving core of Matthews, Huff, Cooper, Agholor and Austin leave a lot to be desired. Any time a team is rotating Miles Austin and Riley Cooper, you know they’re in a world of trouble. The Patriots are a huge favorite and I think the defense could score in this one.

Next: Eagles vs. Patriots Semi-Coherent Preview

Chicago Bears ($2,600) vs. San Francisco (Chi -7.5; O/U 43)- The Bears get Blaine Gabbert and the 49ers this weekend, and I won’t lie, Gabbert has been a lot better than I thought. That doesn’t mean that I like his match-up this weekend. The Bears are a huge favorite in this contest, so I like the spot for the Bears. While the Bears don’t rank well in terms of DVOA, I do think their ceiling is pretty high.

For you consideration: Washington ($2,300) vs. Dallas

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