DraftKings Week 12 Picks

Breaking down the best DraftKings plays for this Sunday

Each week there are millions that participate in Daily Fantasy Sports, and since we at Section215.com care about our readers, we have decided to provide you with some detailed insight on the best plays on DraftKings.

Not everyone plays on DraftKings, and there are definitely pricing differences between each site. If you have any questions on whether or not I would recommend using the players listed on another site, feel free to reach me on Twitter @JFerrie23.

Quarterback

Carson Palmer ($7,100) at San Francisco (Ari -10.5; O/U 45)- The Cardinals are heading to San Francisco and look poised to destroy the 49ers. Palmer finds himself in the middle of the MVP race and has a great matchup this weekend. This year, the 49ers are giving up the sixth most passing yards on a per game basis. According to DVOA, the 49ers rank 31st against the pass in football–which is another suggestion that this one could get out of hand. In seven of his last ten games, Palmer has eclipsed the 20-point mark on DraftKings. While the upside is great, Palmer is bound to be the highest-owned QB on this slate, so you may want to fade him in tournaments.

Brian Hoyer ($5,000) vs. New Orleans (Hou -3, O/U 48)- MINIMUM PRICE QB ALERT! Hoyer finds himself in the best situation he has been in all season. The Texans get the Saints at home, and the Saints can’t cover anybody. For the season, the Saints are allowing the second-most passing yards per game, and the most passing touchdowns. As a defensive unit, the Saints surrender nine fantasy points above expectation, per FantasyLabs. Basically, the Saints defense stinks. The total of 48 happens to be the highest on the board, too. I like the value of Hoyer at minimum salary as a home favorite against the worst defense in the league.

Blake Bortles ($5,900) vs. San Diego (Jax -5; O/U 46.5)- The Jaguars find themselves as a pretty large home favorite against the struggling Chargers. Last week, the Chargers were destroyed by the Chiefs, and it appears that Vegas thinks that will continue. Typically, I don’t like the play a QB who is traveling across the country, but there is no proof that actually matters. The Chargers enter this week with the 30th ranked DVOA, according to FootballOutsiders. With the higher ownership on Palmer, and most likely Hoyer, I do expect Bortles to be a sneaky good play this week.

For your consideration: Drew Brees ($7,300) at Houston; Derek Carr (6,300) at Tennessee

Running-Back

Adrian Peterson ($7,300) at Atlanta (Atl -1; O/U 45.5)- The Vikings look to bounce back on the road this week, as they take on the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons started this year as one of the surprise-type stories with a new head coach, but since have fallen into a battle for their playoff spot. The Vikings are one of those teams fighting for that spot, too. This match-up should be very good, and I think it will go over the 45.5 total that Vegas has set. Adrian Peterson could be the best play at running back this week. Peterson will face the 31st-ranked defense against the RB, according to DVOA. Last week was just the fourth time this season that Peterson has not had at least 20 rushing attempts in a game. This should be a very good spot for Peterson.

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Spencer Ware ($3,800) vs. Buffalo (KC -6; O/U 41.5)- The injury to Charcandrick West puts us in another situation to capitalize on a low-priced running-back. The Chiefs host the Bills and their poor rush defense. For the season, the Bills rank 28th in DVOA against running-backs. That provides us with an opportunity to exploit that match-up. On 11 rushing attempts last week, Ware went for 96-yards and two touchdowns. That will probably have him owned at a higher rate, but the extremely low salary gives so much flexibility at other positions, it is really hard to turn down. The Chiefs are favored in match-up that favors their running-backs, so I like Ware at this very low price.

Chris Johnson ($4,600) at San Francisco (Ari -10.5; O/U 45)- If you’re not playing Palmer due to the high ownership, Johnson may be your play. The 49ers rank 29th in positional DVOA against the running-back position. Along with the poor DVOA, the 49ers allow 126.2 rushing yards per game, which is the seventh-worst in football. In his last four contests, Johnson has touched the ball at least 15 times in each. The main problem with Johnson is getting in the end-zone. If you’re worried about that, maybe pivot to Andre Ellington.

Mark Ingram ($6,400) at Houston (Hou -3; O/U 48)- This season, Ingram has been your ideal cash-game play. In all but one game this year, Ingram has produced double-digit points on DraftKings. The best game Ingram had was against the Colts–where he put up 25 DraftKings points. With an injury to Khiry Robinson, who was taking some goal line carries, Ingram may be poised to score a few more touchdowns in the last few weeks. According to DVOA, the rank 24th in defending opposing running-backs. Remember, this game has the highest total on the board, so you may want exposure to both Brees and Ingram in tournaments.

For your consideration: Javorius Allen ($4,600) at Cleveland

Wide Receiver

Julio Jones ($9,400) vs. Minnesota (Atl -1; O/U 45.5)- The Minnesota Vikings will have the tough task of trying to stop Julio Jones this week, and I bet it doesn’t happen. For starters, the Jones versus Rhodes match-up projected by ProFootballFocus, has the biggest ratings differential this week. That differential is 59 points. FIFTY-NINE! That is just unbelievable. Rhodes has also been burnt by other top wideouts such as Demaryius Thomas, Calvin Johnson and Alshon Jeffery. This is a great spot for Jones based solely on the talent difference. If we include volume, it gets better. In all but one game, Jones has been targeted at least ten times. In fact, Jones has been targeted 15-or-more times in five different games this season. The price is high, but the volume and match-up are so elite that the price makes sense. This could be another huge game for Julio Jones.

DeAndre Hopkins ($9,100) vs. New Orleans (Hou -3; O/U 48)- As stated with Hoyer, this is an elite match-up. The Saints rank 31st in DVOA against WR1 this season. The Hopkins-Hoyer stack will be very popular, but it makes sense as Hoyer and Hopkins have been a good combination. Hopkins has been targeted at least 10 times in every single game this season, which is great volume. In his last five games, Hopkins has found the end zone six times and now he faces the team that has surrendered more passing touchdowns than any other team in football.

Larry Fitzgerald ($7,400) at San Francisco (Ari -10.5; O/U 45)– The Palmer and Fitzgerald combination has been a good one this season. That combo gets another elite match-up this weekend in San Francisco. On ProFootballFocus, there is a 42 point rating differential between Jimmie Ward (projected CB) and Fitzgerald. Just twice this year has Fitzgerald failed to produce at least 15 DraftKings points. In an offense that spreads the ball around, Fitzgerald still gets a ton of work–as he has been targeted at least eight times in eight games this season.

Michael Crabtree ($6,400) at Tennessee (Oak -1; O/U 44)- This season has seen the rejuvenation of Crabtree. When the 49ers drafted Crabtree, this is the type of receiver that they were hoping for. Too bad it is happening elsewhere in California. On PFF, Crabtree has a 20-point rating advantage on the cornerback projected to cover him. Along with that, Tennessee ranks 32nd against WR2 this season. I’m not sure if Crabtree or Cooper is the number one, but they both have favorable match-ups against this Tennessee secondary. In his last four games, Crabtree has been targeted at least ten times in three. I will take the volume at the lower price every single time. If you believe Crabtree will be higher-owned and want to go to Amari Cooper, that is not a problem.

Eric Decker ($5,800) at Miami (NY -3.5; O/U 42.5)- For some reason, daily sports sites don’t value Eric Decker like they should. Each week, I find myself putting Decker in my lineups because the price is just too low not to. In all but one game this season, Decker has at least five targets. While that isn’t amazing, the fact that Decker, as a WR2, has been targeted 10 or more times on four occasions is impressive. The opportunity at just $5,800 means that Decker could easily make value. According to DVOA, the Dolphins rank 29th against opposing WR2. On PFF, Decker has a 45-point advantage on Jamar Taylor, who is the cornerback projected to cover him. At the low-price, roster Decker.

For your consideration: Antonio Brown ($8,700) at Seattle; Jarvis Landry ($6,600) vs. New York

Tight-End

Gary Barnidge ($4,800) vs. Baltimore (Bal -3; O/U 41)- This week, Barnidge comes in as my favorite tight-end. Josh McCown will return to quarterback the dreadful Browns, but that could be a good thing as McCown likes to target Barnidge. The season, Barnidge has been targeted at least five times in all but one game. Barnidge has also found the end zone seven times, which helps his value. The Ravens rank 24th in DVOA against opposing tight-ends. This could be a big week for Barnidge, who should have a ton of exposure.

Antonio Gates ($4,700) at Jacksonville (Jax -5; O/U 46.5)- Each week, I tell myself that Gates is going to be an elite play. This season has been a rollercoaster due to injuries, but if he returns this week, I like the match-up. The Jaguars rank 30th in DVOA to opposing tight-ends, so that favors Gates in this one. The complete lack of talent around Rivers should help Gates get a few more targets, too.

Delaine Walker ($5,400) vs. Oakland (Oak -1; O/U 44)- The Oakland Raiders have been very bad against the tight-end position this season. This year, Oakland has surrendered the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight-ends. Walker has been very safe this season, putting up at least 10 DraftKings points in all but two games. I think Walker will be the highest-owner tight-end in this slate because it is against Oakland. It is a good idea to have some exposure to this very favorable match-up.

For your consideration: Tyler Eifert ($5,800) vs St. Louis; Heath Miller ($3,100) at Seattle

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Defense/Special Teams

Arizona Cardinals ($3,900) at San Francisco (Ari -10.5; O/U 45)- The Cardinals get to face Blaine Gabbert in a match-up that has them as a double-digit favorite. I will continue to bet against Gabbert this week, too.

Cincinnati Bengals ($3,000) vs. St. Louis (Cin -8.5; O/U 42)- Nick Foles is the projected starting quarterback for the Rams this week, and I truly believe that Foles has been the worst starter in the game this season. Cincinnati ranks in the middle-of-the-pack against running-backs, but should be able to commit some extra attention there with Foles at quarterback. They are also $900 cheaper than Arizona and may be in a better match-up.

For your consideration: New England ($3,500) at Denver

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