Phillies Roundtable: Over/Under 23 Homeruns For Ryan Howard
By Tim Kelly
Ryan Howard posted a -7.7 Offensive WAR in 2014, all while batting just .223 with a career-low .380 Slugging Percentage (per Fangraphs). Howard played close to a full-season (153 games) for the first time since 2011, but never seemed fully healthy. Given that it was the third season since his infamous 2011 Achilles tear in the Phillies NLDS loss to the Cardinals, many wondered if he ever would be able to “get his legs under him” again.
In the 0ff-season, while admitting that the team would be ‘better off’ without him, the Phillies did everything in their power to attempt to trade the former National League MVP, including reportedly being willing to eat nearly all of his deal. But it became apparent early in the off-season that short of the Phillies releasing Howard, which Ruben Amaro said the team would not do, Howard was going to be back with the Phillies in 2016, even if the team was better short and long-term without him.
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Then a funny thing happened: Howard showed up early to Spring Training, looking healthier than he ever had. Howard admitted that he cut sugar out of his diet this off-season, and a few Spring Training homeruns have prompted many to suggest that Howard could top the 23 homeruns that he hit in 2014.
As we learned by Howard’s 23 homerun, 95 RBI 2014 season, impressive traditional stats don’t guarantee a good season in the minds of most. Howard posted those numbers, which appear impressive on their own, and yet was below replacement level in 2014.
Still, if Howard can push over 25 homeruns in 2015, it’s fair to wonder if the rest of his numbers wouldn’t improve.
We polled some of our staffers on whether they believe Howard will top the 23 homeruns that he hit in 2014. Here’s what they thought:
Jason Ferrie-Senior Staff Writer
Over/Under: Over
I think that Ryan Howard will hit over 23 homeruns in 2015. Howard appears to have his legs back under him, and that should help him to regain some of his power. Throughout the last three seasons, Howard has suffered lower body injuries, so maintaining his lower body health will be key.
Despite last year being the worst statistical power season of his career, he still managed to hit 23 homeruns. If he can stay healthy, I don’t see a reason why he cannot top his 2014 total. The question for Howard remains whether or not he will do this in Philadelphia.
Mike Lacy-Staff Writer
Over/Under: Over
As you may have heard, Ryan Howard is in the best shape of his life. It wouldn’t be the first time that an aging player has been declared to be in the best shape in his life, but from all reports, the assessment of Howard is actually true. He looks slim and is moving better than he has in years.
Given that he’s as healthy as he’s ever going to be, and presumably past the family strive that he had to deal with last year, I’ll say that Howard does indeed top last year’s 23 homers. While he barely resembles the man who was once a lock to hit 40 every year, Howard still has enough latent power that he can hit 20 during a horrible year–last year was proof of that.
Mar 13, 2015; Clearwater, FL, USA; Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard (6) hits a fly ball during the fifth inning of a spring training baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Bright House Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
The twist is that if Howard does flash 30+ home run power this season, there’s a good chance that some of those home runs might actually come in a different uniform.
Denny Basens-Staff Writer
Over/Under: Under
At this point in his career, Ryan Howard is a shell of his former self.
The book on how to pitch to Howard has been out for a couple of years now. He’s not a disciplined hitter, and he’s going to have some pretty bad at-bats complete with a high strikeout rate.
Howard is still capable of getting hot and having a stretch where he’ll club three or four homers over the course of a week. The problem is that those hot streaks are becoming fewer and farther between with every year that passes.
The former MVP also just hasn’t been healthy ever since his tore his Achilles in 2011, and although the most optimistic of Phillies’ fans will say that he’s finally had a full off-season to focus on baseball rather than rehab, I think the injuries have already taken their toll and done permanent damage to his game.
Howard still has enough raw power to be good for around 20 homers, and it isn’t a stretch to think that he could hit over 25 if he stays healthy and stays in Ryne Sandberg’s lineup. However, recent history suggests that Howard is doomed to continue to struggle as he has over the last three years.