Section 215
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LeSean McCoy Trade Smart For Eagles, According to History

By Jason Ferrie

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Earlier this week, the Philadelphia Eagles parted ways with LeSean McCoy, trading the 26-year old running-back to the Buffalo Bills. For some, this was a surprise, but it should not have been. Some accounts have suggested that McCoy had a falling out with Chip Kelly, as LaDanian Tomlinson passed along on the NFL Network. We learned last year through the DeSean Jackson release that not buying into Kelly’s culture isn’t in a player’s best interests. Add in the fact that Shady McCoy is scheduled to make just over $25 million over the next three years, which includes a $10.25 million base salary this season, and it begins to make sense that the team moved on from McCoy.

What seems to get lost in this McCoy situation is the actual workload that McCoy had during his time in Philadelphia. Age is just a number, but workload determines a running-back’s true age.

{Related Must-Read: Chip Kelly Eliminating Hypotheticals With Roster Purge}

Time and time again, people will cite a player’s age when discussing whether or not they are investable. However, age is not always the best predictor of future performance. While age can tell us when a player should be getting closer to their prime, or close to retirement, a player’s real age should be predicted by their career workload.

For a running-back, that is tied into touches. In an offense like Philadelphia’s, the running-back is a key component. This meant that LeSean McCoy got to touch the ball an awful lot with Chip Kelly. McCoy can thank Kelly for that in some senses, as it helped him earn his second selection as a first-team All-Pro in 2013. Along with an All-Pro selection, McCoy reached consecutive Pro Bowls in 2013 and 2014. Unfortunately for McCoy, the past workload and future contract value was too much for Philadelphia.

In his two years with Chip Kelly, McCoy racked up 706 touches, which was the second most among NFL running-backs during that span. This past year, McCoy had 312 rushing attempts, averaging just 4.2 yards per carry. If you look into McCoy’s total rushing yards, you would be led to believe he was a top-three running-back. He wasn’t even close. Of the 13 running-backs to rush for at least 1,000 yards last year, McCoy was 11th in yards per carry. According to ProFootballFocus, of the 14 running-backs to play at least 60 percent of their teams snaps, McCoy was the worst. Yes, the worst. That is amazing since he topped their list in 2013. The drop-off is surprising, no doubt, but the Eagles could have seen this coming, and don’t seem to think it was just a bump in the road. History suggests that they may be right.

(Editors Note: Injuries to the offensive-line and poor Quarterback play didn’t help McCoy in 2014, but he didn’t seem to be nearly as explosive as he was in 2013.)

Since 2000, six running-backs have accumulated at least 1,750 NFL touches prior to their age 27 season. LeSean McCoy is one of those six running-backs. The other names on this list are Clinton Portis, Maurice Jones-Drew, LaDainian Tomlinson, Ray Rice and Stephen Jackson.

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Each of those players were among the best running-backs in the league during their prime, but the issue was their production in years just following age 26 season. Both Portis and Tomlinson experienced career rushing years in their age-27 season, but started declining in their age 28 season.

Following his age 26 season, Maurice Jones-Drew saw his career decline, and never rushed for over 1,000 yards again. Jones-Drew played in just 33 games in the next three seasons. Thursday, Jones-Drew retired at age-29.

Stephen Jackson started his gradual decline following his age-26 season. In each season following his age-26 season, Jackson saw his rushing and yards per carry totals drop (except in 2011 when he matched peak yards per carry with 64 fewer carries). In those following seasons, Jackson saw fewer carries per game, too. I would speculate that these drops are due to his early career touches.

Last, we have Ray Rice, who was in the news for all the wrong reasons this past season. However, prior to that incident, Rice was an extremely productive running-back. Unfortunately for Rice, his career year happened in his age-25 season and his rushing total was cut in half the following season.

Each and every running-back on this list experienced a decline starting at or before age-27. If this trend stays true, McCoy will continue to decline in the coming years, which means he won’t live up to his contractual value.

The five players listed above were all very good to elite at a point in their career, and so was LeSean McCoy. Unfortunately for McCoy and the running-backs listed above, their early career touches caught up with them. That, and teams appear to be under the belief that they can find cheaper production at the position.

In the current NFL landscape, running-backs come from everywhere. Remember when a running-back would be considered for the number one pick? That won’t be happening again. Since 2010, 75 running-backs have had a season with at least 150 rushing attempts. Here is a breakdown of where those 75 players were drafted:

[table id=10 /]

As you can see, production in the NFL comes from each and every round of the draft. While first-round draft picks have been successful in the sample above, second-round picks have been as productive as undrafted running-backs. Teams have noticed the balance in talent and the ability to draft successful running-backs later in the draft.

Between 2010-2012, seven running-backs were drafted in the first-round. In 304 games, those seven running-backs have averaged 67.8 total yards, 0.37 touchdowns and 14 touches per game. Those numbers are far from what you need out of a first-round pick. That may be another reason a running-back has not been drafted in the first-round since 2012.

The Eagles may have moved on from McCoy, who has the second highest cap hit among NFL running-backs in 2015 (behind Adrian Peterson, for now), just before one down year became a steady decline. Historically, McCoy’s future does not project well and a decline may be on the way. While he is still young in terms of actual age, McCoy’s much older in football years, given that he has over 1,750 touches. Coming off a 2014 campaign that saw him regress, and the fact that he is owed $10.25 million this year, the Eagles made the right choice in parting ways with the franchise leader in rushing yards.

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