Section 215
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Can Charlie Manuel Fix Ryan Howard’s Approach Against Left-Handed Pitchers?

By Jason Ferrie

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Well, this certainly reads as a headline from a few years ago, but it is true. According to Ryan Lawrence of Philly.com, Charlie Manuel is in Phillies camp and has been working with Ryan Howard on his approach.

The need for change is imminent following a season where Howard slashed .223/.310/.380. The question is whether or not the changes will help Howard regain his power and ability to go the other way.

Lawrence, who is in Clearwater, says that Howard’s swing looks looser and his hands appear to be lower. This would not be the first time the Phillies lowered a player’s hands (see: Dom Brown). Another change in the swing of Ryan Howard is that he appears to have closed off his stance. If you recall, Howard has an open stance with a good deal of separation between himself and home plate. This should be the biggest change for Howard heading into his first Spring Training games.

The end-goal for Howard is to simplify his approach. In most cases, a hitter uses an open stance because it allows them to see the ball better. The issue with Howard is that he stands far off the plate with an open stance. This makes closing off and covering the plate difficult, especially with Howard distancing himself from the plate. As he has aged, Howard’s hands have gotten slower, which changes his timing.

However, the Phillies seem excited about Howard’s new approach.

"“He has been working on an approach for 2 or 3 months now.” said Ryne Sandberg. “There are some daily conversations there with Howie and Charlie Manuel, his hitting guy, along with [hitting coach Steve Henderson] and [assistant hitting coach John Mizerock]. As far as making some adjustments there, to really zone in to something that can really be productive for him and a little bit more consistent. I think there has been a little tweaking going on there.”"

When asked about whether or not alterations to Howard’s approach came from the coaching staff or management, Sandberg replied:

"“I think that’s something he has come up with on his own, so there is some talk to find something he can bring to the ballpark on a daily basis and be productive.”"

Sandberg ended by saying:

"“I think as we play some games and get some live pitching, I think that will continue. The goal like any of the hitters in camp is to find what will help them and work with them and find something they can zone in on that they can be consistent with. That’s the same thing with Howie right now.”"

Well, first of all, good for Ryan Howard. He has finally put his family issues behind him, looks to be in good shape and is making changes to his approach. Those are three huge steps for Howard coming into 2015, but that does not mean he will be productive or rebound toward his peak. Although I love Charlie Manuel, he has a tall task in making changes to a hitter entering his age-35 season.

Last season, Howard finished with his third highest single season strikeout total (190), which included striking out in over 25 percent of his plate appearances for the 11th straight season. By now, that strikeout rate should not be a surprise to anyone, including Howard.

The real concern for Manuel and Howard should be the declining line drive rate for Ryan Howard. Over the course of the last three seasons, Howard’s line drive rate fell from 25.6 percent to 22.1 percent. Although the 22.1 percent is closer to career average, it is something to be weary of.

Another noticeable decline for Howard is his home run to fly ball rate. For his career, Howard owns a HR/FB rate of 26.4 percent. The last two seasons, Howard has finished with a 14.9 and 16.1 HR/FB rates respectively.

The following analysis is from BrooksBaseball.net on Ryan Howards’ 2014 approach:

"“In 2014: Against All Fastballs (1,537 seen), he had a good eye (1.11 d’; 75% swing rate at pitches in the zone vs. 33% swing rate at pitches out of the zone) and a very aggressive approach at the plate (-0.13 c) with an exceptionally high likelihood to swing and miss (28% whiff/swing). Against Breaking Pitches (748 seen), he had a league average eye (0.63 d’; 62% swing rate at pitches in the zone vs. 38% swing rate at pitches out of the zone) and a steady approach at the plate (-0.00 c) with an exceptionally high likelihood to swing and miss (45% whiff/swing). Against Offspeed Pitches (337 seen), he had a league average eye (1.07 d’; 83% swing rate at pitches in the zone vs. 45% swing rate at pitches out of the zone) and an aggressive approach at the plate (-0.42 c) with an above average likelihood to swing and miss (41% whiff/swing). “"

Overall, it would appear that Brooks Baseball gives Howard a decent eye with an aggressive approach. The likelihood to swing-and-miss has been an issue for Howard’s entire career as he has never finished with a swinging strike rate below 14 percent. For his career, Howard’s swing-and-miss rate is 15.1 percent, but he has finished with a 16.9 and 15.4 swinging strike rate the past two seasons.

One of the other glaring holes for Ryan Howard is his performance against left-handed pitching. In 2014, Howard had 189 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, striking out in 37 percent of the time. While Howard posted a better slash against lefties (.230/.323/.447), the 37 percent strikeout rate is a huge concern. The chart below, provided by BrooksBaseball.net, covers Howard’s swing and miss rates between 2007-2014 against left-handed pitchers with two strikes.

I decided to use the chart above because it shows a left-handed pitcher’s approach against Ryan Howard with two strikes during his career. As the chart details, Howard has a high swing-and-miss rate in just about every zone, but it appears that low and away, which most likely represents breaking pitches, is a huge concern for Howard. The reason this is a concern if you ignore the percentage of swing and misses, is the number of pitches. In the bottom left hand corner of the chart, it can be seen that Howard saw 507 low and away pitches with two strikes between 2007-2014. Of those 507 pitches, Howard missed on 140 of them. That is a 27.6 percent swing and miss rate. That is a glaring weakness and teams will continue to attack that zone until Howard corrects himself.

Since 2012, Ryan Howard has seen his fair share of low and away breaking pitches. The chart below covers Ryan Howard’s whiff rate against breaking pitches from left-handed pitchers.

Charlie Manuel closing off Ryan Howard would make sense if the end-goal is plate coverage, which it should be. With an open stance that far off the plate, there is no reason for left-handed pitcher to throw anything other than a breaking ball low and away. The pitch appears to be in the zone, or in the range of contact, until it is too late and Howard cannot cover the ground lost by his distant stance. While Howard struggles against left-handed pitchers, you cannot platoon a $25 million a year player. Well, you could, but it would not be pretty or worth the money.

The chart above covers the inning-by-inning pitcher usage against Ryan Howard between 2012-2014. As the chart shows, Ryan Howard primarily faces right-handed pitchers between innings one and six, but following the sixth inning, Howard becomes a victim of matchups. In the seventh and eighth innings, Howard faces left-handed pitchers nearly 60 percent of the time.

As BrooksBaseball.net points out, Howard is thrown fastballs 37 percent of the time he is ahead in the count, but if he falls behind, he sees a higher volume of curveballs and sliders at 19 and 27 percent of the time.

In order for Ryan Howard to produce during the remainder of his contract, he will need to cover the plate and refine his plate approach. Sure, Charlie Manuel is helping Howard with his hands and closing off his stance, but that does not guarantee better results. If Ryan Howard doesn’t improve his pitch recognition against left-handed pitchers, he will find himself either platooning or off the roster. For the Phillies, those are worst case scenarios because they will be paying $25 million each of the next two seasons before having the option to buyout Howard for $10 million in 2017.

Due to his problems against left-handed pitchers during his career, I doubt he will be able to fix his pitch recognition issues, but if Charlie Manuel can pull off this miracle, it may create value for Ryan Howard going forward.

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