Postseason, Advanced Stats Say Curt Schilling is a Hall of Famer

Former Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Curt Schilling had his third chance at being inducted into the Professional Baseball Hall of Fame on Tuesday. During his 20 major league seasons, Schilling pitched for five different teams, but spent eight and a half of those in Philadelphia. In 2012 and 2013, Schilling received 38.8 and 29.2 percent of votes, which isn’t close to the 75 percent needed for induction. This year, Schilling fell short again showing up on 39.2 percent of ballots. While Schilling has fallen short in his first three years of eligibility, does he have a case for Cooperstown? Let’s, explore.

Let’s start with the basics.

Curt Schilling pitched in 20 major league seasons, throwing 3,261 innings, which averages out to  an impressive 221 innings per season. Innings per season show durability, but one can be durable without being good. In Schilling’s 3,261 innings, he posted a 3.46 ERA. While Schilling’s ERA would rank toward the bottom of all Hall of Fame pitchers, we cannot strictly judge him off that.

Schilling is among the best of all time in strikeouts. His 3,116 career strikeouts would rank 15th all-time. Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson, who were first-ballot selections today, are in this select group.

If wins is a metric you base your Hall of Fame worthiness on; Schilling may not make it. In his 20 major league seasons, Schilling finished with a 216-146 record. Schilling would rank 50th in wins among Hall-of-Famers in pitching wins. Basically to summarize: if you judge Schilling on back of the cards metrics alone, he falls short relative to other Hall of Fame pitchers.

Next, let us look at Schilling from an advanced metrics perspective.

While Schilling finished his career with a 3.46 ERA, his FIP suggests he was a better pitcher than that. Schilling posted a 3.23 FIP for his career, which would rank him 34th among Hall of Fame pitchers (including Martinez and Johnson).

ERA+ is the next metric for Schilling. ERA+ ranks players on a scale where 100 is league average and the higher the number, the better the pitcher. Schilling had a ERA+ of 127 for his career. This would rank Schilling in the top 20, tied with Tom Seaver and Bob Gibson (both of whom are in the Hall of Fame). These two pitching categories should be weighed when evaluating a the dominance of a pitcher.

The third set of evaluative tools I will use is WAR and JAWS.

According to Baseball-Reference, the average Hall of Fame pitcher is 73.4-WAR for their career. Schilling was 79.9-WAR for his career, making him more valuable during his career than the average Hall of Fame pitcher. During his peak seven seasons, the right-hander was 49-WAR. The average Hall of Fame pitcher is 50.2-WAR.

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The last metric I will use is Jaws–a tool created by SI.com’s Jay Jaffe. JAWS measures players Hall of Fame worthiness compared to those already inducted. According to JAWS, 61.8 JAWS is the average for a Hall of Fame pitcher. Schilling has a 64.5 JAWS, which according to Jaffe’s rating, says Schilling is a Hall of Fame pitcher.

What actually puts Schilling over the top is his playoff dominance with the Phillies, Diamondbacks and Red Sox.

Schilling made 19 postseason starts in his career, finishing an outstanding 11-2. The 19 starts add up to 133.1 postseason innings. Along with a great record, Schilling shined with a 2.23 ERA. Not only was his record and ERA elite, but Schilling posted a 0.968 WHIP. Simply put, Schilling was dominant. In fact, Schilling is one of the greatest postseason pitchers, ever.

Finally, let’s summarize award history. Despite never winning a Cy Young or MVP, Schilling received votes. Schilling finished top-five in the Cy Young four times, including three second place finishes. Schilling also posted two top-10 finishes in the MVP voting. While Schilling did not receive a regular season award, he does have a Co-World Series MVP on his resume (shared that in 2001, with now Hall of Famer Randy Johnson).

Overall, Schilling’s back of the card numbers make him appear as if he is not a Hall of Fame pitcher, but I believe he should be. Schilling’s advanced metrics tell a different story, that all voters should take into account moving forward. He simply dominated hitters with his 3,116 strikeouts, to go along with a 3.23 FIP. Not only do those advanced metrics favor Schilling, but career WAR and JAWS do, too. Sure, he fell one WAR short in average peak, but his unbelievable ability to produce against the best competition in the postseason should push Schilling into the Hall of Fame.