Jimmy Rollins, Hall of Fame Shortstop?

We’ve had just under a week to let things sink in: Jimmy Rollins is no longer a Phillie. When the Phillies travel to Chavez Ravine to face the Dodgers in early June of 2015, Jimmy Rollins will be playing shortstop, but it will be a home game for him and his number 11 will be in Dodger blue.

Rollins will likely only be a Dodger for one season, with top prospect Corey Seager waiting in the wings. The Dodgers may very well make a deep playoff run with Rollins as a key cog, but even that type of run would only be adding onto what Rollins already accomplished in Philadelphia.

Jimmy Rollins, who played 15 seasons in Philadelphia, was the catalyst of the most successful run in Phillies franchise history. Rollins was drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2nd round the 1996 amateur draft. As a prospect, Rollins was ranked in the top 100 prior to the 2000 and 2001 seasons. Rollins made his Philadelphia debut on September 17, 2000. When Rollins made his debut in 2000, Philadelphia did not expect that Rollins would become the catalyst of the Philles, leading them to five straight division titles, two National League pennants and delivering Philadelphia its first World Series Championship since 1980. What the Phillies as a team accomplished with Rollins speaks volumes, largely due to the fact that his individual numbers do as well.

Individually, Rollins made an impact as soon as he reached the Major League level. In 2001, Rollins was selected to his first of three All-Star appearances. That same year, Rollins finished third in Rookie of The Year voting finishing behind Roy Oswalt and Albert Pujols.

In 2007, Jimmy Rollins made offseason headlines by claiming that the Phillies, not the New York Mets, were “the team to beat”. Well, Rollins backed up that statement by winning leadng the Phillies to win the National League East and collecting the 2007 National League MVP award. That same year, Rollins collected his first of four Gold Glove Awards and the Silver Slugger award at shortstop. In the history of Major League Baseball, no other player has a season of at least 30 doubles, 20 triples, 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases (Rollins stole 41 in 2007).

In Phillies history, Rollins ranks as follows.

First in hits, doubles, stolen bases
Second in games played, plate apperances, runs, triples, totals bases and runs created
Fifth in RBI, walks and dWAR (Defensive Wins Above Replacement)
Sixth Win Above Replacement and oWAR (Offensive Wins Above Replacement) (min. 5,000 PA’s for Phillies)
Ninth in home runs

While there is no doubt that Jimmy Rollins is an all-time great Phillie and will be inducted to the Phillies Wall of Fame, the real question becomes: is Jimmy Rollins an MLB Hall of Fame player?

Previously, I have had discussions at a variety of outlets about Jimmy Rollins and the Hall of Fame. When I talk about this topic, I get a wide variety of responses. However, there have been two consistent comparison made in all of my discussions. Those comparisons are Barry Larkin and Ozzie Smith. Both Larkin and Smith have been inducted into the Hall of Fame. I believe this is a good place to start when reviewing Jimmy Rollins’ case for the Hall of Fame.

To keep things in perspective, there are currently 23 hall of fame shorstops.

First, lets start with the more recent of the two in terms on their induction to the Hall of Fame: Barry Larkin. Larkin played his entire 19 year career in Cincinnati, racking up 70.2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Larkin’s 70.2 WAR ranks seventh among Hall of Fame Shortstops. To better measure Larkin’s offensive value, I will use oWAR (Offensive Wins Above Replacement). As the Reds shortstop, Larkin was 67.5 oWAR–which ranks sixth among H.O.F shortstops. In his nineteen year career, Larkin had a .295 Batting Average, collecting 2,340 hits along the way. Larkin excelled at getting on base (.371 OBP) and driving the ball (.447 Slugging %). Over the course of his career, Larkin hit 198 home runs, which is third among Hall of Fame shortstops. Among Hall of Fame shortstops, Larkin ranks fourth in OPS (.815) and fifth in OPS+ (116). (The individual factors that create OPS are On-Base and Slugging Percentages.) Larkin ranks fifth in Slugging (.447) and seventh in On-Base Percentage (.371) among Hall of Fame shortstops. Reaching base 37.1% of the time provided Larkin the opportunity to steal 379 bases during his career. Larkin’s exceptional offensive numbers were rewarded with nine Silver Slugger Awards and helped him win his only MVP award in 1995.

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While Larkin was a great offensive shortstops, he also excelled on defense. In Larkins nineteen year career, he won three Gold Glove Awards (1994-1996). Unfortunately for comparison purposes, majority of advanced metrics were not available until Larkin was out of the league. However, we can judge Larkin relative to other shortstops during his time. Over his nineteen year career, Larkin had a .975 fielding percentage. The league average during that nineteen year period was .968. While Larkin was an above-average fielder according to Fielding Percentage, Fielding Percentage is not the best metric to judge the skill of a fielder. If a fielder has more range than his peers, he can get hurt by this in regard to Fielding Percentage. The shortstop who has more range will get to more balls and attempt plays with a higher degree of difficulty. For example, if Larkin has more range relative to the rest of shortstops in baseball, he has the opportunity to complete more plays. This means Larkin can field a ball deep in the whole between shortstop and 3rd and attempt the play, while this ball becomes a hit if his peers were to field it. If Larkin fields the ball and makes a poor throw, he actually gets penalized for having more range than his peers. A more useful statistic in evaluating defensive value is dWAR (Defensive Wins Above Replacement). Larkin was worth 13.8 dWAR during his nineteen year career, which ranks 16th.

There are two other metrics that get weight when evaluating players for the Hall of Fame.The Hall of Fame committee weights how great a player was during their peak. This is done by taking a players’ seven highest WAR years and summing them. This gets weight because it shows the value of players during their peak (prime) years. Wins Above Replacement for players is calculated in comparison to others who plat the same position. Barry Larkin had a seven-year peak of 43.1 Win Above Replacement. The average Hall of Fame shortstop is worth 42.8 Wins Above Replacement during their seven-year peak. The next metric that gets weight during Hall of Fame selection is JAWS. JAWS is a metric created by Jay Jaffe. This metric compares players to others at their position who are in the Hall of Fame. The average JAWS score for a Hall of Fame SS is 54.7. Barry Larkin scored a JAWS of 56.6. If Larkin’s numbers and awards alone did not speak for themselves, these last two numbers helped his case.

Next, we review the career of “The Wizard of Oz”, Ozzie Smith. Similar to Larkin, Smith played 19 MLB seasons. Smith played four seasons with San Diego before being traded to the St. Louis Cardinals in 1981. During his nineteen year career, Smith finished 76.5 Wins Above Replacement, which ranks fourth among Hall of Fame shortstops. While Smith was worth 76.5 WAR, he did not provide a ton of offensive value relative to his peers. Smith ranks 16th among Hall of Fame shortstops in Batting Average (.262), 14th in On-Base Percentage (.337) and 19th in Slugging Pecentage (.328). In terms of OPS, Smith ranks 15th with a .666 OPS. However, when Smith reached base, he was a threat to swipe the next bag. Smith stole 580 bases during his nineteen year career, good enough for second among H.O.F shortstops. The Wizard played 2,573 games, collecting 2,460 hits while scoring 1,257 runs. While Smith did not drive the ball, he created runs. During his nineteen year career, Smith created 1,156 runs which ranks eighth among H.O.F shortstops. Over the course of his career, Smith tallied 3,084 total bases (ninth among H.O.F shortstops). As I stated, Smith was not an elite offensive shortstop, ranking 11th in oWAR (Offensive Wins Above Replacement) with 47.8. While Smith was not an offensive superstar, he won the 1987 Silver Slugger Award at shortstop. This was Smith’s best offensive season, finishing with a .775 OPS.

Smith’s offense might have been below hall of fame caliber, but he is the best defensive shortstop in the Hall of Fame. Over the course of his nineteen year career, Smith had a .978 Fielding Percentage. The average shortstop had a .966 Fielding Percentage during Smith’s 19-year reign of defensive dominance at shortstop. As I stated with Larkin’s Fielding Percentage, range can play a huge factor and Smith had a ton of range. To do justice for Smith, we will use dWAR to show his value. In his career, Smith was 43.4 dWAR, which is the best among H.O.F Shortstops. His reign of dominance at shortstop resulted in thirteen consecutive Gold Glove Awards. During his nineteen year career, Smith was selected to fifteen All-Star games, including twelve straight from 1981-1992.

Smith was worth 42.3 WAR during his seven-year peak. Smith’s 42.3 is slightly below the average seven-year peak WAR, whch is 42.8 WAR. Smith has a JAWS score of 59.4, which is above the average JAWS score of 54.7. All in all, Smith is the greatest defensive shortstop of all-time and despite his peak WAR falling short, he far exceeds the average H.O.F in total WAR and JAWS.

So where does Jimmy Rollins stand in comparison to these two hall of fame shortstops?

Offensively, Rollins has been up and down in his career. To this point, Rollins has played in 2,090 games, collecting a Phillies franchise record 2,306 hits while scoring 1,325 runs. If Rollins were to retire today, his games played would rank eleventh among Hall of Fame Shortstops. Rollins hits would rank ninth and runs would rank seventh. Rollins is currently a .267 career hitter, which would rank 14th among Hall of Fame shortstops. However, more weight can be put on his OBP, Slugging and OPS. Rollins would rank 16th in OBP (.327), eighth in Slugging Percentage (.424) and 10th in OPS (.751). Rollins OPS+, which is calculated in specific regards to a player’s ballpark, is 97. Rollins 97 OPS+ would rank 13th among H.O.F shortstops. However, Rollins has been very good at stealing bases in his career, swiping 453 bags. This would rank fourth among Hall of Fame shortstops. Rollins ability to collect extra base hits and steal bases has allowed him to collect 3,655 total bases in his career. This would rank fourth among Hall of Fame Shortstops. In his career, Rollins has been known as a run creator, creating 1,259 runs in his fifteen year career. J-Roll would be seventh among H.O.F shortstops in runs. Finally, to try and put a stamp on Jimmy Rollins offense value, I will use oWAR. In his career, Rollins has been an oWAR of 41.6. An oWAR of 41.6 would rank 14th among H.O.F shortstops, behind both Smith and Larkin. While Rollins trails Larkin by over 20 oWAR, he is only 6.2 oWAR behind Smith. Like Smith, Rollins did win one Silver Slugger, during his MVP season of 2007. Unlike Smith, but like Larkin, Rollins has one NL MVP.

In Rollins fifteen year career, he has a .983 Fielding Percentage– which is better than the league average of .973. While it was not available for Larkin and Smith’s full careers, Rollins is 48 defensive runs saved about replacement. If you take Rollins career defensive runs saved over fifteen years, he has been an above-average shorstop for the duration of his career. If Rollins retired today, his 13.9 dWAR would rank 16th. While his dWAR is nowhere near Smith’s, it is higher than Larkins 13.8 dWAR. Rollins has earned four Gold Glove Awards in his fifteen year career, with the latest coming in 2012.

Aug 12, 2014; Anaheim, CA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins (11) catches a ball during the game against the Los Angeles Angels during the eighth inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Finally, I will look at Rollins peak and JAWS. Over his fifteen year career, Rollins is 45.6 WAR, which is 21.1 WAR below the average Hall of Fame shortstop. Not only does Rollins fall short in career WAR, but his seven-year peak of 32.3 WAR falls short by 10.5 WAR. Finally, Rollins JAWS score if he retired today would be 39.0. Again, this falls short of the H.O.F average, which is 54.7. Of course Rollins is still playing, which means he has a chance to improve these numbers and his Hall of Fame chances. On the flip side, he could hurt his candidacy by continuing to play.

In no way, shape or form is Jimmy Rollins a first-ballot Hall of Fame player. Before making a statement like that, take a look at previous first ballot Hall of Fame players. Rollins isn’t close to a first ballot selection. I do not think I would vote for Jimmy Rollins if his name came up on a hall of fame ballot. I could certainly change my mind down the line, but right now, I do not think he has done enough to be in the Hall of Fame. I value Rollins’ Wins Above Replacement and JAWS because they are historically valued against others at his position. Remember, you can be a great player–even the best at your position in team history–and not make the Hall of Fame. Sure, it may be rare, but it is still possible. Jimmy Rollins will receive Hall of Fame votes, but I do not think Rollins should or will ultimately get into Cooperstown.

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