Section 215
Fansided

Cole Hamels Rumors: Red Sox, Astros, Dodgers Among Six Interested Teams

By Tim Kelly

facebooktwitterreddit

The Phillies left the winter meetings without having moved Cole Hamels, or having had discussions ever get very serious. The Red Sox acquired Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, and Justin Masterson in San Diego, but still seemingly need an ace. But James Shields, who wouldn’t cost the Red Sox any prospects, seems to fit that bill better than Hamels.

The Dodgers, who really never needed Hamels to begin with, signed Brandon McCarthy and later traded Matt Kemp, seemingly ending the idea that Joc Pederson would headline a return package for Hamels.

The Cubs, the third team expected to be a big player for Hamels, elected to sign Jon Lester to a $150 plus deal, rather than part with any of their top prospects.

So of the three teams expected to be serious players for Hamels, two of them–the Cubs and Dodgers–all but took themselves out of the running at the winter meetings. The third, the Red Sox, may very well still make a run at Hamels, but they didn’t appear to leave the winter meetings needing the lefthander, or with any serious competition if they decided they needed him.

So the chances of trading Cole Hamels after the winter meetings are minsicule at best now, right? Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says the answer to that question is no.

"4. Cole Hamels, LHP, Phillies — The Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, and Rangers are interested in Hamels. The sleeper team is the aggressive Astros. The Giants may be in if they can’t get James Shields. The feeling has been that if the Red Sox would pick up Hamels’s 2019 option at $20 million, he would waive his no-trade. The five years remaining on Hamels’s deal would be worth $110 million. Would he want an extension beyond that to OK a trade?"

This report changes nothing about the Cubs or Dodgers. Neither of them are making a move for Hamels. They may very well be interested in Hamels, every team in the MLB should be at least interested, but they aren’t going to give up what it takes to go get him. They don’t need to. Having two aces might be in the Cubs’ best interest, but they don’t necessarily need to have that for 2015. It’s not worth giving up the prospects that they’ve spent Theo Epstein’s entire tenure trying to develop.

More from Section 215

The Red Sox probably aren’t going to have interest in paying Max Scherzer like he wants to, so if James Shields doesn’t land there, the Red Sox would be motivated to have serious talks on Hamels. Let’s face it: they didn’t sign Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval to win two years down the line. The Red Sox want to win the World Series next year, and an ace with a playoff pedigree like Hamels could help them to do so. But for the Phillies to get the return they want, probably something centered around Henry Owens and/or Blake Swihart, they need more teams to seriously be involved in the bidding.

So let’s take the Giants out of the equation, because they appear to be the other serious bidder for James Shields. If the Red Sox sign James Shields, well, the Cole Hamels sweepstakes are probably over until the trade deadline. The Giants don’t need an ace like the Red Sox do, and even if they decide they need another ace given how many innings Madison Bumgarner threw last year, they probably don’t have a good enough farm system to get anything done. So pull for the Giants to sign not-so big game James.

As mentioned, the Padres acquired Kemp at the Winter Meetings, so they are clearly motivated to put a winning product on the field in 2015. Hamels, a San Diego native, didn’t have the Padres on his no-trade clause last year, so he may not even need to approve a trade to San Diego. Certainly, if that’s the case for his updated 2015 no-trade clause, Hamels wouldn’t be able to ask for his 2019 option to be picked up. The Padres have one of the better farm systems in the game, led by Austin Hedges and Matt Wisler, but it seems unlikely they could complete a trade without some financial help from the Phillies.

Aug 26, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels (35) pitches during the sixth inning of a game against the Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies defeated the Nationals 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The Rangers 2014 season was a disaster, but as they hope for a rebound year from Shin-Soo Choo and get Prince Fielder back, they seemingly look like a team that could make the playoffs in 2015. The A’s will take a step back in that division, which makes the division a little more open, even with the Angels still looking strong and the Mariners having improved with the addition of Nelson Cruz. Not that the Phillies would probably have much interest in either, but they probably could take back Elvis Andrus or Jurickson Profar if they really pleased. The Rangers project to be more of a team that would be interest in Hamels if they are still in things around the July 31st trade deadline. Given the recent lack of big-league success from their top prospects (Profar, Justin Smoak, Mike Olt), I’m not sure making a move with the Rangers would make me feel very comfortable.

The Astros have the best farm system out of all of the teams mentioned in the Hamels sweepstakes, but there’s a reason for that. George Springer started to show what the Astros run of top draft picks is going to provide for the organization, but the team still only won 70 games last year. Look, there’s no saying that the Astros don’t want to try to make the ill-advised jump from a team that’s been a mess for the last five years to a competitor, but it probably isn’t all that likely that they have enough interest in Hamels to part with Mark Appel and/or Carlos Correa and take on the money in Hamels’ deal. Even with the A’s having had a mini-firesale this offseason, the Astros are still probably the fifth best team in a very competitive division. Even landing Hamels probably wouldn’t make them competitive in 2015.

One important thing to keep in mind is that we don’t know much about the teams listed or not listed on Hamels 2015 partial no-trade clause. Cafardo reported earlier this offseason that Hamels had six new teams on the no-trade clause, which most would believe are teams Hamels thinks he could get traded to. The Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox, and Rangers are all almost certainly on there. If Hamels was traded to any of those teams, he could request that his $20 million option for 2019 be picked up. If the Astros and Padres aren’t on Hamels’ no-trade list, not only can Hamels not request the 2019 option be picked up, but he also can’t block a trade to either if he just decides that he doesn’t want to go to either of the teams.

When it comes down to it, the Phillies need the Astros, Padres and Rangers to get heavily involved in the Hamels sweepstakes if they want to get the best return for Hamels. As our own Jason Ferrie wrote prior to the winter meetings, Ruben Amaro can’t swing and miss on the Hamels deal, so he is going to have to get blown away to actually pull the trigger on a deal. The more teams involved in the bidding for Hamels, the better chance that Amaro does get blown away.

Home/Philadelphia Phillies