Philadelphia Phillies: Is the 2017 Rotation Set?

This offseason, the Philadelphia Phillies have been wheeling and dealing to add pieces to their roster but the unit with the least change has been the rotation.

In 2016, the rotation was the strength of the Philadelphia Phillies until injuries to Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin, and Vincent Velasquez derailed things. Over the course of the season, a rotation of starters pitched to a team ERA of 4.41 which was good for ninth in the league. While some pitchers didn’t make it seem that way, the Phillies rotation was extremely effective last season.

One of the biggest offseason additions has been trading for Clay Buchholz from the Boston Red Sox. While his overall numbers for 2016 weren’t stellar, Buchholz had a much improved second half to the season pitching to an ERA of 3.22. Those numbers are more reminiscent of the pitcher with two all-star appearances and a no-hitter to their name than it was to the decline that Buchholtz was showing. The biggest change was his improvement in home runs allowed. In the first half, Buchholz allowed 17 home runs while in the second half, thanks to mechanical tweaks, he only allowed four. His addition should add much-needed stability to the rotation.

The next question mark in the rotation was Aaron Nola‘s health. His right elbow strain ended up costing Nola his first full season in the big leagues. Over 111.0 innings Nola pitched to a 4.78 ERA due to inconsistencies with his delivery. This is also due to some bad luck as Nola’s 3.07 FIP* shows.

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Nola was averaging 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings and as long as his health holds up, he should be on track for that again this season. According to Todd Zolecki, Nola is back to 100 percent health and will be ready when pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training in 27 days.

With Nola’s health no longer being a question mark the rotation looks set for 2017 with Jeremy Hellickson, Vince Velasquez, Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, and Clay Buchholtz. It’s tough luck for Jake Thompson who did very well in his brief time with the team but this could be the best rotation that the Philadelphia Phillies have had in a while.

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The best part of this potential rotation is that Hellickson and Buchholtz are on one-year deals. This means that if they’re doing well and the Phillies feel that anyone in the trio of Alec Asher, Elfin, and Thompson can step in without missing a beat, those two can be traded without worry. It should put the Phillies into an interesting position come mid-season especially since quality starting pitchers are hard to come by on the market. The fact that we’ve gotten this far without mentioning Ben Lively shows just how far the organizational depth has come for the Phillies.

The rotation is ready for 2017 but the Triple-A rotation may also be better than it ever has been next year.