Two Philadelphia Phillies Ranked in Keith Law’s Top-100 MLB Prospects

The 2015 MLB season is just around the corner, which means it is time for ESPN Insider Keith Law to rank his top-100 prospects. On Thursday, Law released his annual rankings (Insider only), which revealed two Phillies in the top-100. Last year, Law ranked three Phillies in his top-100. If you follow the Phillies, you know that they have not called up any top prospects to take full-time roles in the last year. Add to the equation that the Phillies drafted the SEC pitcher of the year, Aaron Nola and it is easy to see a pair of Phillies fell out of the Law’s top-100. Prospects are no sure thing, but Law is very consistent with his prospect rankings.

To go along with the individual rankings, Law ranked each Major League farm system 1-30. In those rankings, the 2015 Phillies farm system ranks a dismal 25th out of the 30 Major League teams. If you look back to last year, Law had the Phillies system ranked as the 14th best in baseball. The Phillies should be weary of these rankings. It is not easy for a team to drop from the middle of the pack to the back end without trading their prospects away. The fall has to deal with talent concerns in the minor leagues to go along with prospects have down years in which their weaknesses are exposed.

Outside Looking In

Phillies LHP Jesse Biddle is now on the outside looking in according to Law’s newest rankings. Prior to 2014, Law ranked Biddle as the 77th best prospect in baseball. However, Law was not the only person or site to rank Biddle within their top-100 prospects. Jesse Biddle was ranked 71st by Baseball America, 53rd by MLB.com and 94th by Baseball Prospectus. Since those rankings were released, Biddle has experience both mental and physical issues. During the 2014 season, Biddle told the Reading Eagle’s Mike Drago “I’m miserable out there. I’m very unhappy. And I don’t know why.” It didn’t stop there, as Biddle continued by saying “Nothing feels fluid on the mound, nothing feels natural.” The numbers reflected Biddle’s emotions as well. In 2014, Biddle made 16 starts for the Reading Fightin’ Phils– Philadelphia’s Double-A affiliate. In those 16 starts, Biddle posted a 5.05 ERA and surrendered 11 home runs in just 82 innings of work. While it may not factor into Law’s rankings, Biddle struggled in the field as well. In 12 field chances, Biddle made six errors. Biddle will still just be 23- years old this upcoming season, so there is time for the former-first round pick out of Germantown Friends High School to get it together and make Law’s 2016 rankings.

The Phillies should be concerned with Jesse Biddle heading into 2015 not only because of prior psychological issues, but his recent injury during winter ball. The Phillies sent Biddle to Puerto Rico to try and make up for lost innings during the 2014 campaign. That did not turn out the way the Phillies planned as Biddle left winter ball with a sore elbow. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro said “We don’t think it is anything serious, but we’re being super cautious on him.” As Amaro implied, the Phillies need to be cautious with Biddle. He is young and has future value, so they need to protect him both mentally and physically. If his body is not 100%, he will probably pitch below expectations and this problem will be prolonged.

Another name on the outside looking in is third-baseman, Maikel Franco. Similar to Biddle, Franco was ranked in the back-end of Law’s rankings at 63. Of the four major ranking sites, Law was the lowest on Franco. The slugging third-baseman was ranked 17th by Baseball America, 26th by MLB.com and 52nd by Baseball Prospectus. Law was high on Franco’s ability to drive the ball heading into the 2014 season. In the 20-80 rankings used by scouts (the higher the number, the better the tool) Franco graded out as at least a 65-power by Law. Law also stated that Franco had several concerns heading into 2014 with defense and pitch recognition being his glaring weaknesses. Law was correct as Franco posted a disappointing .299 on-base percentage. While Franco did not get on-base at a high rate, his outs were not a product of strikeouts. Prior to 2014, Law stated that Franco had poor off-speed recognition, but his hands were so quick that they made up for his lack of pitch recognition.

Franco is likely to start the year in Triple-AAA with the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs, but could see significant major league time if he bounces back to top-100 form. The Phillies now have an issue with Cody Asche playing third base and Ryan Howard being locked into his lucrative contract. Since Franco is a poor defender, there is a good chance he ends up at first base if the Phillies cut ties with Howard. Heading into the 2015 season, Maikel Franco will need to prove that he can get on-base at a higher rate than his 2014 numbers reflected. Franco is just 22-years old and has plenty of upside. The Phillies organization needs to put Franco in the right situation and give him time to refine his skill set.

In the Top-100

As I stated in the opening, two Phillies made Keith Law’s top-100. The first of the two is J.P Crawford, who Law ranked as the seventh best prospect in baseball. This is a significant jump for Crawford as Law ranked him 46th heading into 2014. Crawford is a 20-year old shortstop from Lakewood High School in California. Prior to 2014, Baseball America was the only of the four major rankings to have Crawford in their top-100 at 78th. Law is high on J.P Crawford’s defensive abilities, stating that the future successor to Jimmy Rollins has quick feet, a strong arm and good actions in the dirt and around the bag. Law does address that Crawford has issues fielding into the hole, but says there is no reason he can’t get better. Like most, Law has been surprised by Crawford’s ability to hit. Coming out of Lakewood, Crawford was a slick fielding shortstop with a very raw bat. Law continued to say Crawford’s load can get a little deep, but his hands are so quick that he can cover the majority of the plate. In 2014, Crawford hit .285 overall, but posted a .375 on-base percentage. In terms of strikeout-to-walk rates, Crawford struck out just 74 times in 538 plate appearances. While Crawford was difficult to strikeout, he walked 65 times, which is good sign projecting forward. The concern most have with Crawford, including Law, is his lack of power. This has been a main goal of the Phillies this offseason. Crawford is 6’2 and weighs in at just 180 pounds. Heading into 2015, Crawford has the chance to fill out his frame and Law believes the 20-year old has a shot to hit 10-12 home runs a season.

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Moving into the 2015 season, Crawford’s defense and speed will continue to shine while the shortstop works on his hit tools. At this time, Crawford is not ready for the big leagues, but he is getting closer. Ranked as the number seven prospect by Law, the Phillies organization and fan-base should be excited about their future shortstop. In 2015, J.P Crawford needs to continue to fill out his frame, work on base stealing (24/38 in SB attempts) and further develop his hit tools. At this time, I am not sure where Crawford will start, but the Phillies should expect the 2013 first-round pick to see time in Double-A this season.

The second of the two Phillies to make Law’s top-100 is 2014 first-round draft pick, Aaron Nola. The former SEC pitcher of the year ranks 57th in Law’s top-100. Many talent evaluators, including Law, believe that Nola is the most major league ready arm from the 2014 draft. On the 20-80 scouting scale, Law ranks Nola’s control as a 70, citing that the right-hander can pitch to either side of the plate, showing little fear when doing so. To go along with Nola’s elite control, he features a 91-94 mph fastball that he fairs with a 78-82 mph slider and 83-85 mph change-up. Law believes both of Nola’s off-speed pitchers are above-average at this time. Nola does work from an awkward arm angle coming from a low three-quarter slot. Law also states that Nola is a short-striding pitcher with a hyper-mobile arm, but finishes well out front and easily repairs his delivery.

As Nola moves into his first full season as a member of the Phillies, the organization should expect him to start in Double-A Reading. In terms of major league readiness, Nola does not have much to worry about. His elite control, calm demeanor and plus pitches should lead to success for the soon to be 22-year old. In 12 games at two different levels last season, Nola finished with a 2.93 ERA, 4.5 strikeout-to-walk rate in 55.1 innings pitched. While Nola is young, Phillies fans could very well expect Nola to make his major-league debut today.

Reviewing the Rankings

When I first guessed the Phillies rankings, I had only Crawford and Nola in the top-100 as well. Jesse Biddle had a terrible season not only numbers wise, but mentally and physically. It isn’t easy to project prospects for reasons like this, but Biddle still has time to rebound and could be a back-end starter in time.

Maikel Franco being outside of the top-100 is a slight surprise, but at the same time, it isn’t a complete shock. Previously, Law has been very high on Franco’s power, but in reality, how long can two tools (power + arm) get a player in the top-100? Franco has a lot to prove heading into 2015. He is no sure thing at third and struggles with pitch recognition. While Franco had a great winter, you should not overvalue those numbers as they aren’t against major league competition.

I am thrilled with J.P Crawford being ranked seventh. I have watched Crawford extensively, and his defensive ability is off the charts. When Crawford was selected in the first-round, I questioned his approach at the plate, like most did. Like Law, I think Crawford gets his hands very deep in the hitting zone, but as long as his timing is right and he maintains his quick hands, it should not be too much of an issue. In 2015, I expect Crawford to get a step closer to being major league ready. Defensively, he is ready, but Double-A should help us understand his hit tools a little better.

I am equally as excited to see Aaron Nola on this list. While I originally thought Law would rank Nola higher, the other names ahead of Nola make sense. Law ranks Nola as a solid three with number two upside. In terms of major league readiness, I agree with Law that Nola may wind up in Philadelphia this season. The Phillies should not feel rushed to get Nola to the major league level, though. The first half of 2015 will determine the time table for Aaron Nola as well.

It is frustrating to see the Phillies organizational ranking take a vast step back as a whole, but perhaps with two potential core pieces–Nola and Crawford–on the big league horizon (at least relatively), the Phillies recent mis-fortunes with struggling to develop from within are about to change.