Phillies head into 2015 looking to rebuild pitching staff
By Jason Ferrie
The Phillies are one of the potential landing spots for coveted free agent Outfielder Yasmany Tomas. While signing Tomas would help this Phillies offensively, the Phillies need to rebuild a pitching staff that has been decimated by injuries in recent years.
As of right now, the Phillies have a great front two in their rotation and then suffer a significant drop off. Currently, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee are on the roster and would be penciled in as the front two in the rotation going to Spring Training.
Cole Hamels, whose name continues to surface on the trade market, will probably be back with the Phillies to start the 2015 season. The Phillies ace finished sixth in the Cy Young voting in 2014, posting a 2.46 ERA, which was fifth best in the NL and ninth in baseball. Critics will bash Hamels for not winning games, as he finished the season 9-9, but wins are not the best metric to go by when finding a pitchers value. Hamels was second in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) among National League pitchers, behind only NL Cy Young/MVP winner Clayton Kershaw. Ruben Amaro and company paid Cole Hamels $144 million dollars to be an ace, and that’s exactly what Hamels has done. If Hamels is back with the Phillies in 2015, it is fair to expect another sub-three ERA, along with 200+ innings.
Cliff Lee, who had an injury-riddled 2014 season, is recovering from an elbow injury. Lee will look to rebound from a his worst season as a member of the Phillies, posting a 3.65 ERA in only 81.1 innings. The 36 year-old lefty also struggled with his command in 2014, posting a 1.38 WHIP (Walk +Hits/Innings Pitched), his highest since he was a member of the Indians in 2007. The Phillies still owe Cliff Lee at least $37.5 million dollars through 2016 and are set to pay him $25 million this season, with a $12.5 million dollar buyout for 2016 on the horizon. That option becomes guaranteed for $27.5 million if Lee throws 200+ innings in 2015, which would push the remaining total of the deal to $52.5 million.
Once you get past the front two in the rotation, you will see a drop off. The Phillies will be moving on from Kyle Kendrick, who finished 2014 with a 4.61 ERA in 199 innings. A.J. Burnett declined his $12.75 million option will not be back with the Phillies after signing with the Pirates this past Friday.
As of right now, David Buchanan and Jerome Williams are in the Phillies rotation filling out the third and fourth spots. Buchanan, who started 20 games for the Phillies, finished the season with a 3.75 ERA in 117.2 innings. Buchanan managed a ground ball rate of 50.7% on balls in play, which makes him a good fit for Citizens Bank Park. It is fair to expect that Buchanan will regress in 2015 and finish the year with an ERA north of four as his 4.27 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) would suggest. The Phillies signed Jerome Williams to a one-year, $2.5 million contract following the 2014 season. Williams, who was last released by the Angels, pitched well for the Phillies in his nine starts. Williams threw 57.1 innings for the Phillies, finishing the season with a 2.83 ERA. Williams has bounced around in his career due to inconsistency, which helps explain the one year deal. Like Buchanan, it is fair to assume Williams will regress in 2015 as he posted numbers that do not align with his careers averages.
The Phillies also have several starting options on the roster that made rare appearances in 2014. Jonathan Pettibone and Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez both spent time on the disabled list in 2014. Pettibone, who had 18 starts for the Phillies in 2013, missed majority of the 2014 season with a shoulder injury. In Pettibone’s 18 starts in 2013, he posted a 4.04 ERA over 100.1 innings. It is uncertain if he will be ready for spring training, so there are no guarantees for Pettibone.
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Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, affectionately referred to as MAG, was signed to a three-year, $12 million contract out of Cuba by the Phillies in 2014. Ruben Amaro Jr. and company saw Gonzalez as a mid to front of rotation arm, but unfortunately, Gonzalez was not able to stay healthy in 2014 and saw limited time out of the bullpen. If healthy, Gonzalez could make a claim for one of the five starting spots. Health is the biggest concern when it comes to Gonzalez and was the reason that the Phillies withdrew their original six-year offer to Gonzalez and ended up signing him for three years. I remain optimistic about both Pettibone and Gonzalez heading into 2015. Gonzalez looks to be more of a bullpen arm than a starter at this point, but I think he can be effective in that role. Pettibone may be best served as a long relief man, who gets the occasional spot start.
Finally, the Phillies need to fill the final spot in their rotation. There are multiple situations that come to mind for the Phillies, but only a few make sense at this time. The Phillies have several promising minor-league arms. Jesse Biddle and Aaron Nola are their two top pitching prospects coming into 2015. Biddle, who was shut down in winter ball due to a sore elbow, will be a long-shot to throw a major league inning this year, especially if the elbow injury continues to be a problem. Nola, a former SEC Pitcher of The Year, was the Phillies first round pick in 2014. A right-hander out of LSU, Nola has a ton of upside and reached the AA level in his first short minor league season. While it would be great to see Nola succeed and reach the majors this year, he likely won’t be on the opening day roster.
Since Biddle and Nola are unlikely to make the opening day roster, the Phillies would be smart to invest in a low-risk, high-potential sign. The first name that comes to mind is Justin Masterson. Masterson, who was traded from Cleveland to St. Louis at the 2014 trade deadline, struggled in his time in St. Louis, posting an ERA north of seven in nine games. The 29 year-old has a career 4.24 ERA, but was thought of as a front-end starter coming into 2014 after a solid 2013 campaign. The reason that Masterson would be a great buy low for Philadelphia is that he needs to re-establish his value. A one-year deal could prove to be the right move for Masterson in 2015. This would be a stop-gap for Biddle and Nola, similar to Jerome Williams. Masterson differentiates from Williams as he could be an asset for a contender if he is pitching well at the 2015 trade deadline. Other than Masterson, the Phillies could look at signing free-agents Brandon Morrow or Ryan Vogelsong.
Regardless of how the Phillies handle their pitching situation, they have a wide variety of options heading into 2015. On paper alone, you can see the significant drop-off in the rotation once you get past Hamels and Lee. Injuries are going to remain a concern going into 2015, specifically with Cliff Lee and his elbow. If the Phillies do not have Lee, there is an even more significant drop off following Hamels in the rotation, which will not bode well for the Phillies. I believe signing a pitcher like Justin Masterson to the Fangraphs suggested one year, $9 million dollar price tag is a realistic option. Not only is this option realistic, but it could be the best move for Masterson, as I previously stated.
The Phillies 2015 rotation needs to be solidified and it will be interesting to see how Ruben Amaro Jr and his front office handle the rotation construction and injury concerns going forward.