The Philadelphia Phillies have finally arrived to Opening Day. The previous offseason wasn’t filled with player movement but the Phillies are bringing most of the core back from last year’s National League East Division champions squad.
Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner will be anchors at the top of the lineup while new addition Max Kepler will add some balance to the back end. Alec Bohm, J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos will add pop to the back end as Philadelphia brings back one of the most potent lineups in baseball.
While there are some questions in the rotation, it shouldn’t be enough to hold Philadelphia back as they open the year against the Washington Nationals on Thursday.
Game 1: Zach Wheeler (PHI) vs. MacKenzie Gore (WSH)
Wheeler is fully entrenched as the Phillies’ ace, but he has a 14-15 record with a 4.45 ERA in 36 games (35 starts) against the Nationals in his career. The good news is that most of the holdovers from the Nationals teams that gave him trouble are gone and Wheeler went 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA with 23 strikeouts in 19.2 innings against Washington last season.
Josh Bell is the biggest threat with four home runs and a 1.024 OPS in 38 career at-bats against Wheeler and offseason addition Nathaniel Lowe adds a degree of difficulty, going 4-for-9 against Wheeler. Gore is a rising starter for the Nationals but six different players on the Phillies Opening Day roster have a home run against the left-hander including two by Castellanos.
It should be enough firepower to lead the Phillies to an Opening Day victory.
Prediction: Phillies 5, Nationals 2
Game 2: Jesús Luzardo (PHI) vs. Jake Irvin (WSH)
Luzardo was one of the biggest acquisitions of the offseason but his Spring Training performance has sounded the alarm. Luzardo allowed 13 earned runs in 12.1 innings of Grapefruit League action and has struggled against the Nationals in his career, going 1-for-3 with a 5.25 ERA in seven games.
Josh Bell (.500), Keibert Ruiz (.417) and Amed Rosario (.375) have all seen success against Luzardo but the Phillies lineup could make the difference. Washington starter Jake Irvin is 0-3 with a 7.59 ERA in 21.1 innings against Washington in his career and Kepler (1.667), Realmuto (1.444), Brandon Marsh (1.083) and Turner (1.000) all have OPS over 1.000 entering Saturday’s game.
If Luzardo struggles, the Phillies should be able to slug their way to victory.
Prediction: Phillies 7, Nationals 4
Game 3: Aaron Nola (PHI) vs. Michael Soroka (WSH)
Aside from Wheeler, Nola might be the best bet for success this weekend. The right-hander has gone 10-8 with a 3.62 ERA in 34 games (33 starts) against Washington and went 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA in four starts last season.
Soroka has struggled against the Phillies in his career, allowing 12 earned runs in 19 innings. Harper has also had success, hitting .400 within 10 at-bats, but Realmuto (.445 OPS) and Turner (.625 OPS) haven’t been able to do damage in extended sample sizes. Still, it would be foolish to bet against the Phillies and they should have the offense to get the job done.
Prediction: Phillies 4, Nationals 1