How the Eagles Will Expose Jayden Daniels in Week 16

Washington Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is getting a lot of hype. It's not hard to see why — he's probably going to win Rookie of the Year and plays with a fun style. But the Philadelphia Eagles are about to completely derail his hype train in Week 16.

I'm not going to say that they'll crush his Rookie of the Year hopes — Bo Nix is still a huge long-shot to catch him, but he's certainly not going to look like a -4000 favorite for the award (per FanDuel Sportsbook) when this game is over.

The Eagles are only 3.5-point favorites over Washington, and Daniels' over/under for passing is set at 214.5. Any Eagles fan, gambler or not, can expect to be laughing at how disrespectful these odds were to the Eagles' defense after the final whistle blows. Let's look at why Daniels will be in for one of his worst games of the season here.

Eagles vs. Commanders Prediction: Why Jayden Daniels Has No Hope

Let's get the easiest, maybe laziest argument out of the way first: the Eagles held Daniels to one of his worst games of the season the first time they met. His 63.9 PFF grade was his worst since his season debut in Week 1. His 5.19 adjusted yards per pass attempt were his second-lowest of the season. His 2.6 yards per carry on rush attempts were his second lowest. But there's a lot more to it, and this week could get even uglier.

First, let's consider Daniels' biggest weakness. For a quarterback who can rush as well as he can, he has serious struggles when facing pressure.

There have been five games in which he has had an average time to throw below 2.85 seconds (per PFF). These five games include four of his five worst graded games of the season. He averaged 5.6 passing yards per drop back in those five games, compared to 6.4 across his other nine. That sample also includes the only two games in which he has failed to rush for 20-plus yards.

And if you really want to drive the point home? Daniels' passing grade from PFF is 39.2 points lower when facing pressure (52.2) than in a clean pocket (91.4). That is the seventh biggest dropoff among the 44 QBs who have recorded at least 100 dropbacks on the season. Daniels simply can't function with pressure in his face.

And if you're an Eagles fan, you probably don't need me to tell you much about what comes next.

Philly's pass rush doesn't always get the credit it deserves because they haven't put up a huge sack total on the season, but this unit is genuinely one of the best in the NFL. PFF grades them out at No. 2 in the NFL, and they're coming off one of their best games of the season.

Last week, the pass rush racked up 13 pressures against the Steelers, which is right up there with the 15 they recorded in their first matchup against Washington.

The Commanders, on the other side, have a below-average pass-blocking line. They rank No. 22 in PFF grade, and they've been especially bad lately. Their two worst-graded games of the season have come within their last five, and they haven't even eclipsed 67.0 (a mark that still sits below the league average) since Week 9. And that was in an incredibly easy matchup against the New York Giants.

So Jayden Daniels can't play under pressure, the Eagles' pass rush is elite, and the Commanders' offensive line struggles in pass protection.

Football is a complex game, and it's not always as straightforward as connecting dots like that. But at the same time, sometimes it absolutely is that simple when it comes to crucial aspects of the game like protecting your quarterback.

So whether you're betting Daniels to throw for under 191.5 yards, taking the Eagles to cruise to a win by more than 3.5 points, or simply cheering on your birds while they thrash their NFC East rival with the playoffs looming, this is going to be a very fun game for Philly faithful.

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